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Saquon Barkley or Melvin Gordon (contract year)


#1

Who would you rather have for the next two years? Does answer change for standard scoring?


#2

I would rather have Melvin Gordon. Doesn’t change for me in Non-PPR.


#3

It’s close. I honestly don’t think you can go wrong here. I’d probably lean Barkley. Contract year is completely irrelevant.


#4

thats tough. barkley has the higher upside, gordon is the safer floor. so which do you need, do you need a big boom? or do you need to know basically exactly what you are going to get out of this selection? my answer just between the 2 is gordon. im a believer in barkleys talent, but i have also been a big supporter of gordon too. his one bad rookie year really put a bad taste in peoples mouths. but the fact is, he has been a top end RB for 2 straight years. lasy year he was a top 5 guy, and the year before that he was a top 7 guy, missing 3 games. gordon is as solid as they come.


#5

Well said. This is pretty much how I feel as well. I just tend to gravitate to upside, especially when volume is a virtual guarantee anyway.


#6

Appreciate you explanation and opinion, man. I have Gurley as a keeper, so I’m looking to pair Gurley with Gordon or Barkley. (Standard)

I agree on Barkley having the higher ceiling and Gordon having the higher floor. I just believe that Barkley has the homerun ability that Gordon doesn’t. I also think the Giants O-Line is being underrated by many (and I’m a Cowboys fan). They upgraded left tackle and guard big time. Not to mention they get Beckham back…


#7

If you already have Gurley that would tip the scale to Barkley in my opinion. With a stalwart I’d take the risk (however small) on Barkley.


#8

Does full PPR swing it more towards Barkley for any of you guys? It’s really close for me. Both of these guys will catch a lot of passes but I think Barkley even more so because of the way Shurmur intends to use him.

Enjoyed reading everyone’s thoughts as I’m likely going to be faced with this exact decision on draft day.


#9

you would think it might, but gordon also has some really good receiving chops as well, getting 60 last year. he is basically the WR 2 on that team. honestly i laughed when andy said he had him ranked above Zeke, but then i started really thinking about it. i dont know if i would have him over zeke, but i do think i have him over DJ as well. BTW my top RB rankings arnt the exact norm. but back to gordon. the guy is a beast, who had a bad o line, that is finally healthy and might be able to block for him so he isnt getting hit at the like every single run now. i just really really like gordon for the next few years with rivers there, and just the combo of everything going on for that team.


#10

Gordon is a quality receiver for a running back, but he’s not nearly on the DJ, Bell, Gurley (and likely Barkley, but that’s still TBD) level.

Gordon had career bests last year in targets, receptions, and yards (83, 58, 476 respectively) and has a career average of 8.2 ypr. DJ, by contrast, had 120 yargets, 80 receptions, 879 yards, and 11.0 ypr in 2016 (11.5 ypr for his career). He’s an entirely different animal. In fact, he’d be an upgrade over at least one of the 3 starting WRs on half the teams in the league. Literally.


#11

last year was also his first non rookie year that he was healthy all year. he was on pace for 50 receptions then. im not saying gordon will get 80 receptions a year, but if he keeps on hitting 60 (he only had 6 less than gurley last year) and gets better YPC, he will be a monster. im not saying he is better than these guys, but his fantasy football production might end up that way. my biggest concern with DJ, is it was just one year. and it was an ungodly year. to expect that every single time is insane to me. the best RBs to ever play didnt have years like that every single time. i expect him, and his MUCH worse team to come back down to earth. which is why i would rather have gordon. i know, its not the consensus around the ffb community, but its what i would do, what i would feel more comfortable with.


#12

It wasn’t just one year. He had 57 targets, 36 receptions, 457 yards, and 12.7 ypr in only 5 starts the prior year. And in the one game he played in last year, which he didn’t finish, he had 9 targets, 6 receptions, and 67 yards. He’s a monster. I honestly think he could be a near pro bowler as a WR, if they moved his position. He’s really that good.

There is no circumstances outside of Gordon being left alone for a 90 yards screen for a TD where Gordon comes anywhere near DJ in terms of receiving, if both play 16 games. No chance.


#13

DJ has more receptions and receiving yards in 22 starts than Gordon has in 40.


#14

saying no chance isnt exactly a good way to play this game. there are plenty of ways. 2016 gordon was up at 10 yards a catch. he was at 58 receptions last year. the oline has improved which DOES help his case for recieving… but to say there is no chance base off of 1 year, and then a a half of a year (my bad didnt know i had to include 2 more months) when he was setting insane numbers that NO one does, at least consistently… yeah there is a regression coming. besides, the argument isnt who will be the better receiving back, its who will be more valuable in ffb. who will be the better RB. so yeah, even then it doesnt matter that DJ could get more receptions and reception yards than gordon, if he cant get more rushing yards and rushing TDs. so really your arguing half of the point and not the full point. who will be a better ffb RB? my perception, thats gordon. also i feel like you think im saying DJ will suck, which im not and he wont. im just saying i would rather have gordon at this moment.


#15

Regression probably IS coming from a TD perspective, but he can lose a ton of them and still easily out produce anything Gordon has done to date (that’s true of rushing, and as i showed above, receiving as well). However, arguing that regression is coming from a rushing/receiving perspective because he’s ‘only done if for a season and a half’ is effectively arguing small sample size. 22 games isn’t a small sample. That’s who he is. Regression was coming after 2015. Ot was a small sample. Surely he couldn’t do it with a larger workload, over a full season. 2000 total yards and 20 TDs on a team with a mediocre QB, bad OL, and middling reviving talent.

Speaking of sample size, 40 is quite large for an NFL player. Expecting Gordon to get considerably better because of a theoretical OL improvement (why do we believe it’s gotten better? A player who’s never taken an NFL snap?) is kind of crazy, imo. I also don’t think it’s a given that Gordon’s receiving role expands (or even that I’d doesn’t go down some) with quality receiving backs behind him on the depth chart.

You’re welcome to your own opinion, but I think you’d be well served to re-examine it. DJ has a significantly higher ceiling, and the difference as a receiver also gives him a higher floor.


#16

i didnt say a word about considerably better. in fact i talked about minor improvements. a better YPC because of a better oline (dont want to believe that, thats fine thats on you to do with as you wish) more receptions because he has been trending that direction (again, not saying he will get 80. but more can be 65 and i wouldnt be surprised) and staying on par with his 12 TDs is an improvement, and one that can bump him up to the next level. BTW those that argument about backs behind him has been around the last 2 years. and for 2 years, it hasnt mattered. he has just gotten more and more of the work load. so thats an old and buster argument.

but to just expect a player to do something that really doesnt happen all that often, THATS kind of crazy imo. can he? yes. but thats banking on DJ being insanely good, on a bad team, with a bad oline… there is more than just a TD regression coming. that could still mean 1600 yards from scrimmage so again, im NOT saying DJ will suck because 1600 yards is GOOD. but would it really be all that surprising for him to not hit an insane 2000+ yards from scrimmage?

and last point, 22 games is a small sample size. you dont crown someone king of RBs after a season and a half. you dont take a season and a half, and expect that every single time. same thing goes for if a player doesnt live up to expectations. that would be like saying that a guy who in 2 seasons had less than 1000 yards a season average, with 32 receptions per year, and only 16 total TDs, couldnt then go on to rush for 1300 yards, 64 receptions for 800 yards, and 19 total TDs in a season. because that DID happen with todd gurley. so yes, that is a small sample size, and anything could happen. same thing goes for DJ. you havent seen a ton from him. you dont KNOW that he will do anything like that again. its obviously possible, but you cant just say yeah for sure thats happening. so ill say it one more time because i think you will still try to argue like im saying DJ will suck or something but, regression doesnt mean he will be bad. 1600 from scrimmage is good, and a much more reasonable goal.


#17

Ok, I’m done arguing this for the most part, but I will push back on the sample size poiny. How many games has Ezekiel Elliot played? 25. We’re pretty comfortable with him being ridiculous, no? 22 games is plenty.


#18

yeah im done with it too, cause i think my argument has been made pretty clear. not hating on DJ, just lovin on melvin.

and yes, we are comfortable with him being ridiculous. just like im comfortable with DJ being ridiculous. which 1600 yards is. im not expecting zeke to go for 2000 yards either. 1600 is more the norm for elite players. 2000 is a damn good year for an elite player. i really dont know why you have such a problem with my different opinion, but ill leave it be with that final point.


#19

I understand you aren’t hating on DJ. I guess what I meant was that we’re comfortable with him being the player he’s shown he is, from a production standpoint. I just think DJ is a different kinds dude as a receiver and other than the TDs, I really don’t think 2016 was a fluke.

If I’m being honest with you, I think his rushing numbers may go down a bit and he could still match that total yardage number. I think he’s that special and will be that involved as a receiver. I just think he’s as safe as they come, specifially due to the reciving, and has the highest ceiling of any RB we’ve seen in a very long time.


#20

OP, to answer your original question and not get pulled into an argument about a player you weren’t asking about :grin:, I have Barkley and Gordon back to back and think they will finish the year with similar stats. Think you will be fine with either one, depends on who you like more. I personally would go with Gordon, but that is only because I have seen what he can do.