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Saquon or Gurley


#1

I’ve got the number 2 pick and figuring the 1 pick will take Bell. I know Saquon is not usually going til around 1:08 - 1:10, so I know he won’t make it back to me by any means. And yeah, I know I’d probably be a complete idiot to pass on Gurley, but…IDK, for some reason I just have a funny feeling about Gurley. (As in…gonna go down for the season in the first few weeks.) And yeah, I know Saquon has already had hamstring issues.

So…just curious as to the general consensus.

10 team. Full PPR. Re-draft.

Thanks y’all. Appreciate the hell out of any and all feedback as always!!!


#2

LOL, and before anybody goes to screaming about not taking Zeke, or DJ, or AB with a 2 pick, I’m just curious as to what everybody thinks about all the hype about Saquon. If he’s as GOLD as it sounds like he’ll be, just thinking that maybe he might be one to latch onto (reach for) while he’s still available.


#3

Love Saquon but the best case scenario for him if he lives up to the hype is if he performs to the level of DJ/Zeke/Gurley.

That Oline still has a tonne of question marks. I can maybe make an argument for taking him over someone like AB, but there’s zero chance I take him over Gurley/Dj/Zeke. Potentially in full PPR, may consider him over Zeke but end of the day, DJ is his best case scenario.

If you really want Saquon, try and trade back in your draft or something to at least the 1.05.


#4

Yep @MikeMeUpp. I figured that would pretty much be the trend of response I’d get from that question. But, as I mentioned…as bad as I hate it, just have a stinking feeling about Gurley. So…now I have to ask…you thinking at pick 2 I should take Zeke, DJ or AB over Gurley? As I mentioned, I would be real surprised if the first pick doesn’t grab Bell tight and quick.


#5

I have no issues with you taking any of those guys above Gurley. As far as I’m concerned they’re all splitting hairs. Couldn’t argue either way. My personal preference would be DJ, then Zeke, then AB if you want to fade Gurley.


#6

OK. I reckon what I’m asking at this point is…with the number 2 pick, full PPR, 10 team what would you do. I’ve been thinking Gurley (since I’m figuring Bell going first. BUT…if 1 pick doesn’t take Bell…….???

I really, really appreciate all your thoughts here @MikeMeUpp. Thanks for sticking with me here.


#7

Oh full ppr. DJ. If 1 doesn’t take Bell, I would take Bell. I would rank as follows:

Bell>DJ > AB > Zeke.


#8

So…apparently you’re nervous about Gurley too huh? The Ballers have Gurley ranked in the top two…as do lots of other sites. And he appears to have tons of upside. But…I’ve found in the past that even tho all the “experts” seem to know best…….with all the CLAN numbers, there is more experience “talking” from them. So…I tend to trust the “commoners” like you and me as much, if not more, than the “experts”. (PLEASE DON’T TAKE OFFENSE ANDY, MIKE AND JASON…this is my GO-TO place for answers and advice!!!)


#9

It’s not that I’m low on Gurley. I just prefer Bell over him. And I am higher on DJ and Zeke than most. Gurley is great but most of his yards were created by his Oline. He doesn’t really do much on his own in terms of broken tackles or elusiveness compared to Zeke or DJ. So as long as his Oline is chugging along, he’s great. But the second one of them goes down, I don’t see him coming close to what he got last year. Having said that, Gurley will have plenty of opportunity and that rams offense will still be rolling so Gurley is still in my top 4. But I like the other 3 guys better. And also, in a full PPR, AB value shoots up and DJ shoots way up as well to overtake gurley.


#10

Again @MikeMeUpp, thanks more than you know for sticking with me on this. You’ve sure given me tons of insight to think about over the next couple of weeks. Our draft is Sun the 26th. So still basically lots of time to mull things over.

And not to be selfish here. Best of luck to you on your draft if it hasn’t happened yet. Will be waiting to hear how you did on yours.


#11

Np. Happy hunting and GL on your draft. End of the day, as I always say, go for your guy and go with your gut. Honestly if you’re sitting there and 1.02 and you just for some reason cannot live without Barkley, you can take him too. Personally, I would never do it but if you do happen to be right, could feel pretty good too.

Go with your guy. Better go down swinging with guys you like than lose with people someone else chose for you.


#12

Well said my friend!!! And…no…absolutely NOT going with someone else “choosing” for me…just never hurts to have those 2nd, 3rd, 4th and even 21st opinions. Thanks bunches and bunches for yours!!! They will definitely weigh in. Any and all thoughts help!!! More appreciates than you know!!! And again…best of luck and happy drafting (hunting) to you as well buddy!!!:hugs:

(PS…I’m an older lady, grandma, almost 60 years old, so…assuming a hug is not out of place or offenisive. LOL) (And…for the record…this is not my first year for FFB…been doing this many years, but each year is nuts and a whole new BALLGAME!!!) LOL


#13

Beauty of fantasy. It knows no age bounds. I hope I’m still playing when I’m 60 although I doubt football will still be around by then.


#14

LOL. I have faith. Football and it’s FFB counterparts ain’t going no where!!! It’s an addiction!!! I’ll be long gone before IT will!!! AND…for the record…I’m NOT 60 yet…ALMOST…but not there yet!!! LOL…I’m still young!!!


#15

Exactly 3 backs had a high DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) as rushers: Dion Lewis, Alvin Kamara, and (somewhat surprisingly) Alex Collins.

As for the lines, it’s true that the LAR did their part (third in Adjusted line yards at 4.70), but it wasn’t far ahead of Dallas which was 4.66. That’s little more than a rounding error.

None of this is conclusive one way or the other, but there’s a good bit of evidence to make me think this may not be true.


#16

So, @DFWB, are you saying that you would go with Gurley above most others in the first round if you had the 2 pick, full PPR, 10 team? Just wanting to make sure of your post here. And TY for your response!!!


#17

That top group is pretty interchangeable. My order is probably Gurley, DJ (and I really want to take DJ first - I think he’s the best back in the game, but I can’t completely ignore situation), Bell, Zeke, but it’s really close.


#18

I actually looked into this and was confirmed by a couple guys that study advanced metrics who I trust. Couple interesting data points for you to consider:

LA Rams run blocking efficiency (i.e. work done by Oline): 1st
Gurley Juke Rank/Elusiveness (i.e. Broken tackles): 24th
Yards created per carry: 1.16 39th
Facing stacked front: 2.5% 44th
Light front carry: 4th
YPC vs stacked front: 0.3 49th
YPC vs neutral: 4.0 #23
YPC vs light front: 5.0 #14 (his money maker).

This all makes a lot of sense to me when I watched the games too. If you watch the games, all his big runs is when his line gave him plenty of space before he got touched so he could gather momentum and get to his topspeed. His breakaway speed is great, and he has pretty decent vision. But once defenders reach him, aside from some highlight reel Hurdles, gurley wasn’t the guy who was going to juke or get extra yards after contact like a Kamara or Hunt or Zeke do.


#19

Interesting that two different sets of metrics that should theoretically show the same thing give completely different conclusions.

Mind if I ask where you got this?


#20

For perspective here are those metrics for hunt who I consider to be one of the best runners in the NFL and actually better than gurley in terms of being able to create their own yards without relying as heavily on Oline blocking:

Evaded tackles: 1st / 17th
Juke Rate: 2nd
Yards created per carry: 1.95 5th
Facing stacked front: 19th
Light front carry: 24th
YPC vs stacked front: 2.2 21th
YPC vs neutral: 5.0 #5
YPC vs light front: 5.1 #10

Like I said, this is only part of the equation. Gurley as long as he has his Oline, is going to be a stud. But if that oline falters, he’s kind of SOL like prior seasons cause he can’t create on his own. He is an athletic freak but needs to build that momentum.