WOW. Great job guys. OMG. INTERESTING!!! So glad I posted this. Hanging on y’all’s discussion. TY!!!
Player profiler. Great resource. Most people only look at the athleticism metrics at the top but the advanced metrics they show at the bottom are far more valuable. You can really see how some of these metrics really play out in the film. Hunt is the best example.
It’s definitely not fool proof, but when the film matches the metrics, that’s when I usually take it at that value.
If you compare him to someone like DJ. is why I love DJ. The fact that DJ was able to do what he did in 2016 was insane. He literally did it ALL BY HIMSELF. So to me from a talent perspective, DJ is superior to Gurley. And it shows in the film. In 2016, DJ’s metrics:
vs stacked: 6.5% (69th)
vs Neutral: 42nd
vs light: 88th
Yet he was still #2 in tackles evaded and #8 in breakaway runs. But obviously most of his value still came from the passing game but it shows that he is totally immune to how bad his team was. opposition completely sold out to stop the run and still he put up one of the most historically impressive seasons ever.
Interesting. I’ll have to look into it, but based on the film I’ve watched, I very much disagree about Hunt. He’s good, but far from elite. 2nd in Juke rate, in particular, is interesting. I saw him break a lot of tackles with very good power and balance, I saw very nice accelerstion, but I didn’t see an elite cutter. Fine, but far from elite.
Yeah in terms of cutting ability, I think Bell/DJ/Freeman are probably top of the league for me. Their jump cuts are insane, especially Freeman. Criminally underrated.
Hunt is definitely not an ELITE cutter but he is definitely pretty good and well above average. Combining that with his vision and burst is what makes him lethal. I believe he was #1 in breakaway runs and #6 in breakaway rate. If you have the vision to see the holes, at least have above average ability to make the cut and then have excellent acceleration, that’s really all you need to crush it in the NFL.
But what you saw on film lines up pretty well with those metrics. His Juke rate and ability to break tackles ranks at the elite tier in the league. Taking carries for an additional 3-5 yards after initial contact was routine for Hunt. Which was important cause their Oline sucked pretty bad.
Give those same situations to Gurley, and what you get is, well 2016 gurley. He needs the room to accelerate to get to his top speed and make those cuts / hurdles. He’s not someone who creates on his own.
Also, another underrated cutter is Drake. His cuts are absolutely DANK. Although I’m sure you are aware of this as you are one of the other few Drake truthers here.
Drake is definitely in that conversation, but I don’t think Hunt is. Not from what I watch last year. If I’m being perfectly honest, I actually tend to think of Drake as being what everyone else seems to think Hunt is, minus some power and balance.
I wasn’t saying Hunt is an elite cutter, but his other traits put him in that convo. I mean Hunt minus power and balance is nothing. That’s where like 50% of his value comes from. Taking the initial hit and then grinding out another 2-4 yards. The Elite Cutters are the ones I named, Freeman, DJ, Bell. Lynch back in the day had an absolutely disgusting cut too.
I see Drake as a better athlete than hunt, definitely a nastier cut, not as good vision and not nearly as good power/balance and also not as good on the goal line and obviously on a much worse team.
I’d throw Shady in there too.
Don’t pass on Gurley.
But, lol with that being said, fantasy is a game for fun so if you want saquon instead, take him especially if you will be second guessing your pick the whole season if you take gurley.
You’re asking us to rank these players by putting an “A” or a “B” next to the #1 but the bottom line is you can’t really go wrong either way. If you’re expecting regression from Gurley (and many are) then I wouldn’t fault you for going elsewhere, but I’d probably look at Zeke before I looked at Barkley at 1.02
That being said, as Mike mentioned, look to move back a few spots unless you’re concerned someone in your league is willing to swing early. These discussions come up frequently and knowing you’re not picking again for a while, the decision becomes “take who you want” out of the tier your drafting in. If you can’t move the pick and you’re just trying to convince yourself into taking Barkley, then take Barkley. Don’t worry so much about what others value the player. You won’t get a chance to get him in the 2nd, that much is sure.
Yes how could I forget about Shady. He is the infinite cut back.
This is why these arbitrary rankings are so stupid. Hunt was ranked number 1 in “elusiveness” because he had the number one mark in yards after contact last year. Falling forward for an extra yard on every run hardly makes a back “elusive” yet that’s the narrative the major players would have you believe.
Now, I’m not knocking Hunt (in fact I have him as a 4th round keeper in both of my keeper leagues this year), but the truth is the truth lol
Completely disagree that rankings are “arbitrary”. Broken tackles and elusiveness is a pretty commonly recorded metric in the NFL. Here’s how the juke rate is defined: Total Evaded Tackles / Total Carries + Catches. When you watched hunt on screen, he was consistently breaking out of tackles for an additional 3-4 yards. The falling forward for 1 yard that you have alluded to above is not included in the stat so your comment is really not applicable. Getting hit and falling forward for one yard is just a tackle. Breaking a tackle means you continue going and break out of the initial player who made contact / tackle. If what you said was true, Zeke would probably lead the league in elusiveness. That is far from the case. Hunt broke 137 tackles last year vs Zeke who Broke 57 total. That is more than 2x zeke and meant he broke OUT of a tackle in 42% of his touches. That is an absurd accomplishment and not really something to be written off. Not sure how you can just write it off as bogus. The film here supports the numbers. I agree with @DFWB that Hunt is not an elite cutter, but anyone who watches the film can see Hunt is an elite runner when he comes to breaking tackles and churning out extra yards. He has been ever since college.
I think you misunderstand my point, I never said the data or the statistics themselves are bogus. I don’t like the idea that something like “elusiveness” can be considered a hard and fast statistic. I love digging into advanced statistics, but I also take them with a grain of salt.
To the lay person, the word elusive carries a great spectrum of connotations.
These type of advanced stats are imperfect for sure. It’s an attempt to quantify something that is somewhat subjective. But if the terms are defined and the methodology is applied honestly and consistently, there’s plenty to be learned from this type of analysis.
I would never base an opinion of these stats alone, but it’s a nice tool. Another useful tool is the advanced stats based on player tracking (yards after close, and similar). Again, imperfect. Not every instance of a defender closing within 1 yard of a ball carrier (the condition that triggers the measurement) are equal. It could be an avalanche of D linemen that’s completely inescapable or it could be a LB who took a bad angle, or slipped and I that could beat for an extra few yards.
If you use these as the tools they are and scrutinize them (compare the numbers to what you see on film), they’re incredibly useful.
I agree 100% that they can be used to narrow one’s research. I guess what drives me nuts is that we get these articles every year that highlight certain statistics without ever bearing out why they are applicable in the first place, and ignore the ones that are detrimental to their point.
There’s always another side to the coin, which is where you and Mike come in hahaha you guys give me the best angles for discussion.
Hell, I said it before but you guys changed my mind on McKinnon (with real, honest to god reasons, not just “he’s fast” arguments) and it looks like you saved me a monster headache LOL
Very well said @DrFantasyBlog. Which is exactly why I tend to put a lot of stock into @DFWB’s and @MikeMeUpp’s thoughts and responses. They don’t just tell you what they feel and think, but also “why” they tend to lean that way. And they usually have very understandable explanations with charts and stats to back it up with.
LOL…sure glad they’re around.
Sounds like the way I feel. I was picking 1:01 and I traded back to 1:07 and got an extra 3rd rounder and gave up my 5th rounder. That type of trade could be a possibility you explore. There is a lot of talent to be had in those early rounds. If you feel strongly about it go with your gut end of story. If saqoun does better like you think he will then you will regret taking gurley all season.
@samann Unfortunately, in our league we don’t have the option of draft spot trading. LOL, as soon as our draft order was posted, I immediately checked with our league manager. Would really have preferred the 5 or 6 pick. But…oh well. At least I know I have a guarantee of one of the top three RB studs and possibly AB.
I pretty much just posted this to see what the general consensus was. And really glad I did. Ended up getting some valuable feedback and food for thought. Thanks a million y’all!!!
It’s tough… I’m a veteran of leagues that allow this and was asked to commish a league with buddies, and even tho one or two guys want to swap picks, I have to be democratic about it; ask to bring it to the league for a vote. If you guys draft live it shouldn’t change much.
We’ll be voting on it for next season in fact.
In full PPR I think Kamara enters the top RB discussion. Top-tier O-line, top offense, safer pick.