Saquon trade

In my 10 man keeper league I have a trade on the table to trade Saquon (1st round value) and my 3rd rounder (24th overall) for the 11th overall pick and possibly a mid round pick swap with me moving up a couple of rounds. It is risky, but if I do it, I would have the 4th, 11th and 17th overall picks with a loaded draft pool this year. I could get two top 10 wrs and probably a top 5 rb with those picks, and then use my 3 keepers on conner (8th), kittle (9th) and mack (10th).

I think I an going to do it… am I crazy?

You’re so crazy it just might work. Saquon is fire, but is due for big regression. Defenses no longer have to worry about OBJ, which counts against any RB. But Saquon isn’t any RB…if you have a dang good chance at a top 5 RB, then yes I would do it with that depth.

Rather go into the season with barkley/connor/kittle…

only exceptions:
If you have the #1 pick in the draft dont keep saquon just draft him

You know one of these zeke/CMC/kamara/DJ/mixon are available at your pick…

for me, there isnt a big enough potential point gap in the top 4 RBs that would make me say you have to keep saquon. so with that in mind the trad kind of morphs into your favor pretty damn hard. you still potentially get one of the big 4, and add someone at the 11th. and that person will be far more valuable (in theory) than your 3rd. and then of course what ever value you will get from a pick swap will be good as well.

the only question becomes… are zeke, CMC, or kamara being kept? if all of them are being kept, my answer changes. if 1 or 2 are my answer changes as well because then i have to ask, who else will be there? DJ? gordon? in the end its not like you are going to be screwing yourself over by adding more high end value. so i dont hate it in any case, i just might like it less.

Cmc and kamara are being kept. Zeke is a wild card. Rb options at 4 may include some of the grouping of Gordon, DJ, Bell, Gurley etc. Top 3 guys are all drafting with their pick and dont have a keeper there. Here is the projected draft board with sure keepers removed. Yellow rows are guys im not sure if they will be kept or not.

So you already have the 4th and 17th pick, and would be trading Saquon for the 4th overall pick?

Tough… if you’re keeping Kittle, you almost have to trade Barkley to ensure you’re adding elite receivers. You do have to be comfortable with a guy like Gurley or David Johnson… they have the ceiling to replicate (or close to it) Barkley’s production, but their floors are terrifying considering you’re moving a consensus #1 pick.

I’m a bit froggy, so I’d probably jump, but you’re going to have to do a fair bit of maneuvering in those first 3 rounds to make sure you get enough value to justify the trade.

So if you kept Barkley you would lose the 4th pick of draft? And that 17th pick (4 from last in the 2nd round - snake), does that move up if keepers are selected before that?

Sounds like you are giving up Barkley and a third round pick for the 11th pick and Mack… nope, not doing that.

If I keep Barkley I have to use my 1st to do so. If i trade him, I can use my 4th on someone else, and get the 11th as well. Already have mack as a keeper option, so would just keep him as a third keeper instead of Barkley if I trade him.

17th wont move up based on other keepers.

Yes I agree, that is the risk. But doing the trade gives me a DJ/gurley type in the first and 2 of something like OBJ, AB, Allen, Evans, Hiton in the 2nd. Plus adding in Mack as a 3rd keeper later on in the draft.

If i keep Barkley i get him in the 1st and just 1 WR - probably allen, evans or hilton in the 2nd. And lose the option to keep mack as barkley would be the third keeper.

Saquon just put up phenomenal numbers in his rookie year. Nearly every rookie improves from year 1 to year 2. People saying Saquon is going to regress to a statistical mean are insanely bad at math. They probably heard the term on a football podcast rather than a classroom and never learned the parameters needed to have any reliability in a mathematical model. That said your trade seems reasonable, but you might reget it when Saquon puts up 2000 total yards.