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Saturday's PPR Mock Draft Episode -- Strategy Question


#1

FootClan! Wanted to get your thoughts on the Saturday (29 July 2017) mock draft Jason, Andy & Jay Griz did (link to episode below). I have 2 strategy questions, but would enjoy hearing any other reactions you had. A quick recap of their roster:

QB - Stafford
RB - :musical_note: David Johnson, Gurley, Woodhead, T-West
WR - Landry, Crabtree, Edelman, Moncrief, Maclin, Kelvin
TE - Gronky Kong
K & DEF - some guy & some team (they didn’t care)

Question 1 >> Do you have a target number of WRs & RBs when you enter a draft? How much do you stick to it? (The guys seemed to have a “best available” approach in this mock and (arguably) ended up with a bit of a lopsided squad with 6 WRs and only 4 RBs. )

Question 2 >> The guys understandably shrugged at the DEF & Kicker positions at the end of the draft. But… In a real draft, would you consider passing on Stafford when they did (12th of 14 rounds) and grab the best available kicker or defense? Why? Drafting at the turn, they had the opportunity to draft both the best available kicker andy defense. Knowing that 11 of 12 defenses still needed to be drafted and all 12 kickers, there were overwhelming odds that no more QBs would be drafted, so they still would’ve gotten Stafford with the last pick in the draft.


#2

Well, I don’t really have any reaction from this mock draft, or the others; just positive satisfaction with all the information and nuggets that go along with the draft. Which is they’re primary goal, look for best value, here are some strategies, hypotheticals and possibilities.

I don’t really target a certain number of WR’s or RB’s myself, but generally target RB’s early since there is a lack of good backs late in the draft. We have all season to make moves and improve depth at a certain position. If I happen to be heavy with receivers I can find a team in need, and get a running back, vice-versa. You’re right, you want to have a good balance. I don’t concern myself too much with a target number during draft, but I’m not going Zero anything either.

On the second, I agree, and have been doing that in mock drafts. There is so much depth at the QB position, I can get a guy like Stafford after getting a top defense and/or kicker. Same with the TE position. That’s a great idea that the Ballers have mentioned as a good strategy that they would employ themselves.

Andy and Jason did kind of wing this, like the others they have done but still good to critique. I love these mock drafts, as they explain different thought processes on strategies, and players, things to consider. All the different narratives that go along with the decisions we may make in drafts. The positive and negative. Jason would not take Gronk in this spot in the draft, but has verbalized he would rather wait to take a TE next to last.

Thanks for the post! Should be discussed more, especially by me. Some draft their real team then ask how they did. It would be beneficial to post mock draft results, round by round. (As in each player in what round and why) and await the critiques and constructive criticism!


#3

On point 1, I typically find that I end up with roughly the same number of WRs and RBs at the end of drafts. I don’t have a set number on either and honestly it is largely dependent on who’s on the board. I like to end with roughly 6 and 6 of each and then only 1 QB, TE, Def, K. Default to your tiers, don’t pass up a stud WR just because of what you’ve already drafted. You can always flip 2 for 1 in a trade for a better RB and it comes out as if you drafted him.

On point 2, I get this principle, but it’s not one I ever subscribe to. DEF/K are virtually a crapshoot. Literally half of the projected top 12 Def and K end up outside top 12 at year’s end. Not worth it. Get your guy and punt DEF/K to final two.


#4

I agree on both of your points – although my second question is pointing out that this is a special case we should keep in mind:

  • The guys were drafting #1 overall, so…
  • At the 12.12 and 13.01, their remaining positions to be filled were QB, K, D.
  • Of the 23 remaining picks after theirs, 22 had to be filled with K or D.
  • Stafford, Rivers, Carr, Big Ben and Dalton were all still available.

So strategically, there’s basically no reason to take a QB with the 12.12 (or 13.01). And as much as K & D are variable and fairly unpredictable there is a big difference in reliability between drafting Tucker/Gostkowski/Bryant and the K12. Or drafting the Seattle D and the D12.

Getting your top choice at both K & D is therefore strategically to the team’s advantage – especially with virtually zero downside in this scenario. Absolute worst case is that the 1 pick left by another team that wouldn’t be a K/D would end up being Stafford (a very low probability)… in which case the guys could have their choice of any of the remaining 4 QBs they mentioned.