I’ve been over this a few times on here, but it comes down to this: Everyone seems to want to look at the last two years both Nelson and Rodgers were healthy and cut and paste those stats into Adams 2018 box score. Here’s the problem: those are outliers, from an individual target perspective. Rodgers does not have much of a history of locking onto one WR. Aaron Rodgers has targeted a WR more than 140 times exactly twice, and both were Jordy Nelson (those two years), a much, much better player with whom he had a freakish and well documented connection. And that happened twice. In 9 years. Everyone else on that list has a floor of 140 targets and has either a better career catch rate, a better YPR, or both.
You just need a lot more to go right for Adams than people seem to think for him to return value at his current price.