I have the 6th overall pick in my 10 team standard scoring league. After doing some mock drafts I’ve come to the conclusion that the “best” player that would be available for me to take would be OBJ or Julio Jones. However I’ve started to become intrigued with the idea of taking LeSean McCoy 6th and taking someone like Michael Thomas with my 2nd pick, or maybe even another RB if someone like Melvin Gordon is still on the board. I think that good WRs are more plentiful than good RBs this year so that is my thought process. What do you think?
This is a tough one, but in standard I love taking an RB in the first round. The slippery fish has upside without Gillibear, but he is a 29 year old RB with a little injury risk…kinda. Honestly I would stick to the tiers.
Julio/OBJ = Tier 1 + Howard/Murray/Freeman (optimistic) = Tier 2
McCoy = Tier 2 + Thomas = Tier 3 (although I think he should be tier 2 @AndyHolloway, looking at you)
A tier 1 and 2 is better than a tier 2 and 3 (2).
Yeah I understand the tiers, and that’s what makes this predicament a tough one. So while you don’t necessarily recommend taking LeSean, it’s not an awful idea?
Absolutely right on board with you. Either way would be okay with me. But the RB list is slim pickings. You want the best value yes, but it’s so close. And I go with Shady.
In a redraft standard scoring league I don’t think there is any other choice than Shady IF he comes to you. Murray/Howard/Freeman will more than likely not get back to you in a standard league. Owners tend to go RB,RB a lot more in standard drafts. I think you would be looking at a McCoy/Dez combo if you take Shady. Of you take Julio or OBJ, I think you are looking at Miller/Lynch/Gurley range as RBs coming back to you. I would 100% go Shady. This is coming from a guy who has a personal love for OBJ and would probably take him first overall in most 10 team drafts haha.
RBs are the difference makers in standard formats, and few RBs have the combination of talent and opportunity that Shady has. Taking him 6th in standard is a good play, and due to recency bias ESPECIALLY in standard formats you may see some WR value present itself in rounds 2 and 3. A top RB will always be more valuable and harder to find than a top WR
I have pick 6 overall in a competitive 14 man keeper league. I’m leaning Shady or Devonta with my first pick and potentially snagging another RB or my WR1 with my 2nd round pick. It will be difficult to pass on Julio or OBJ at #6 but I have found that I’m much happier with my mocks when I go RB first round.
Because Shady seems to nurse some kind of injury all season, I find myself higher on Freeman and Howard lately. I’m definitely going RB at pick six as well, but for me it is a close decision between those three. I feel like if you take Shady at 6, both Freeman and Howard will undoubtedly be gone by round 2. I prefer having the 10th pick in a 10-team league because I can snatch TWO solid RB’s right off the bat, then patiently wait for the WR in later rounds. Anyway, at 6, I am 100% going RB.
I would recommend going with Shady. While I respect the tier argument and find it completely reasonable, I also would point out your point, which is that Shady is a near Tier 1 upper echelon talent that now no longer has to contend with Gillislee, thereby maximizing his touchdown ceiling. I also feel that having a solid RB1 and then getting the depth at Wr later in drafts is great, especially if you select high upside plays like Martavis Bryant or John Brown to complement your WR1 (Michael Thomas you mentioned).
No Shady isn’t an awful idea. Like I said, this is a tough one. I don’t think you will be wrong whichever way you go, we are just trying to guess which will net more points end of the year.
Nit Picking Yay!!
Im in a similar situation. Im in a Ten team standard league with the 5th pick and I asked the same question today on (Thursday Q&A 9pm to 12am eastern time SLEEPERBOT forum) and everyone there suggested that I stay away from shady and go with melvin gordon or howard… Im kinda torn about this. I know its probably best that I go RB first in a standard league, but julio jones and ODJ sitting there… hmmmmmm … any input ?
also I just purchased the UDK and if someone can explain to me how the tier drafting style works would be great.
I agree with @Guinness … and playing off his input…
If you are set on taking McCoy at 6, it’s worth considering that the best player available (and best choice) at Pick 15 might also be a running back. (UDK has Howard right around there for standard leagues.)
You’ll feel thin at WR to start your draft, but it’s worth playing out this scenario in mocks to see what rostering two top RBs – and then backfilling with a few WR2s – does for your squad.
Tier based drafting doesn’t revolve around the best player available necessarily. Instead, you take the best player as it relates the the rest of that position’s available depth.
As an example, in the 2nd round the best available player is a WR, but you notice that there is a large dropoff in quality RBs after next one drafted. In addition, you notice that the next 10 WRs are of similar value. In tier-based drafting, you take the RB. Then take the WR in the next round as the difference in quality between that player and the player you would have taken a round earlier is pretty small.
@Mr_ButterFace makes a good point, plus I feel like in a 10 team league there will be a surplus of WR depth round 3-7.
If you look at the consistency rankings, it’s almost always more worth having a top RB than top WR. There are a lot of high upside WR’s later in the draft I’m willing to play the “start-sit” game where RB’s run dry. While I LOVE the upside of Michael Thomas this year, he could still suffer from having to deal with a ton of coverage and give you more of a boom-bust potential. I’d rather go RB RB and see who turns up in round 3 for high-octane WRs
I agree, RB is too difficult of a position to fill later. Get your RB’s while you can. WR is a deep position, you can get good ones later in the draft. Good luck!
I agree Lambert. Take an RB your first two rounds. Tons of WR’s, but the best RB’s are gonna go quick. Maybe think…RB, RB, WR, WR. Then maybe RB, WR. After that you can start thinking about TE or first QB. All leagues are different. It kinda depends on how your other League Members tend to draft.
While I do think that the departure of Gillislee definitely increases touches, I can see Tolbert vulturing some touchdowns, he is so much more than a fullback. Carolina used him quite well and if Karlos Williams and Gillislee was any indication, they will continue to shy away from Shady on the goal line.
If it is strictly a redraft league, I definitely think RB first round is the way to go. Standard has less pickings for WR depth, but I would still go RB first.
San Diego used the fat bastard as abTD machine too.