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Should I make a counter offer?


#1

The owner offered Howard & Beasley for my Hilton & Morris. I’m going to decline but kind of stuck on what to counter back with.

Would his Hogan/ Howard for my Hilton/ Morris be shooting too high?

Full PPR and we start 3WR, 2RB, 1FLX

My Roster:
WR: Evans, Hilton, Tate, Juju, Jordy, J.Brown
RB: Bell, Burkhead, Kerryon, Morris, Wilkins, Clement, J.Kelly

His Roster:
WR: Hogan, Jones Jr, Fuller, Richardson, Ridley, Wallace, Beasley, T. Taylor
RB: Gurley, Mixon, Howard, Crowell, J.Allen


#2

I’d certainly try to land Howard based on your roster. You need another good RB and Howard fits that bill perfectly. I’d even accept his original offer to be honest. You have the depth to live without Hilton. I mean, it doesn’t hurt to try for more (I like Hogan and think you could get him) but don’t hurt yourself trying to reach a bit too far.


#3

Should try countering for Hogan. For some reason, perceived value of hogan is always so low. If he accepts that, i’d take that trade. Could also try for Jones Jr.


#4

My QB is Stafford in this league so if it went through, I would have Stafford, Tate, Jones Jr. I’ll try for Hogan first and see if he bites.


#5

Yeah i’ll send him the Hogan trade and see if he thinks it’s too much or not and go from there. I definitely can see Howard being good for my roster which is why I was thinking so much about a counter.


#6

I’d take the original trade if it means getting it done. Howard helps your team a lot more than Hilton does. The other pieces are nothing so I view this as Howard for Hilton which I would take in a heartbeat if I were you.


#7

I agree with Josh. Get Howard. Hogan is a big swing from Beasley. He might bite on the deal with a different WR like Fuller.


#8

I’d pull trigger as is with your depth. You could try but also run the risk of the offer getting pulled. I agree Hogan’s value is always perceived as low, but he has him as his first WR taken it looks like here, so if he gets Hilton I am sure he plans on slotting Hogan down to WR2.

I would gauge the situation a little if I was going to make an offer.

How desperate do you think he is to get a better #1 wr?


#9

Don’t do this. This is how you lose in trading by disregarding side transactions. Morris i not nothing. He’s the goal line back on an offence that going to score and he will likely also lead in touches. Just cause it was a waiver wire add, doesn’t make it nothing.

Cole Beasley, is actually nothing. Shouldn’t even be rostered.


#10

My point is his team benefits much more by making this trade then not. I want no part of the Morris/Breida backfield so to me Morris is a non factor. I get your point but in this case and I’m this instance I think if he can squeak out more value that taking the initial trade still helps him.


#11

I’m wth Mike on this:

The “other pieces” in any trade play a crucial role in making it work.

Yes, it’s a Howard for HIlton deal, but that doesn’t mean the other pieces don’t matter.

Since Howard > Hilton, the other piece that goes with HIlton needs to be superior to the other piece that is dealt with Howard.

But here’s the rub; neither can be “nothing,” as Mike put it. And since Morris will start in SF (that’s been announced) and Beasley is basically not as good as lots of guys you could pick up on the waiver wire, the deal needs tweaking. There’s no need for that last piece to be as good as Morris, but it needs to be a functioning fantasy piece with actual production potential.

I think asking for Hogan / Howard for Hilton / Mooris might make hm walk away. Usually when people throw “stink pieces” into deals it’s because they don’t want to give anything but the main piece up, while getting two productive guys back.

But I do think rank Hogan higher than Morris, so in this configuration of the deal, both of the pieces coming to you are superior than their “cohorts” in the trade and that would make it unfairly lopsided in your favor.

Hogan beats Morris, and Howard beats Hilton. Why would he do that deal? It might be the case that he undervalues Hogan. As Mike has pointed out, lots of people do. But your trade partner probably does know that Hogan’s the best he’s got; he’s trying to get Hilton from you.

But I guess you should offer it and see what he says. Maybe he’s dumb enough to take it. That would be a win for you.

But if he says no, then what about Hogan / Howard for Hilton / Kerryon?

That seems like an actual fair trade rather than a one-legged turkey.

Good luck.


#12

I would take this trade. This is the best I offer I would make though, so starting from Hogan/Howard isn’t unreasonable if people are into the TY Hilton hype. End of the day Hilton has WR1 type ceiling, we’ve seen it. That’s what your selling. Just gotta be a good salesman and tell that story when you’re saying it. And gotta downplay hogan with Edelman return, injury history, never caught more than 41 catches in a season, Gronk, etc. Doesn’t mean you have to believe it, just gotta do a good job selling. It’s a trade in your favor for sure, but it’s not so egregious that it’ll shut down trade talks.


#13

Thanks, Mike…

I definitely wouldn’t go further than offering Hilton / Kerryon for Hogan / Howard.

And yeah, I’d definitely try to sell Hilton / Alf first; Hilton could be a major boom, as you point out.

But I will say this: it’s been my experience that the minute you start trying to sell a trade you do believe in, let alone one you actually don’t, is the minute most potential trade partners smell a rat and back off. I’m not saying he shouldn’t try selling Hilton / Alf, but the harder one tries, the likelier one is to sound desperate to make the trade. Then the potential trade partner becomes suspicious and starts doing more research and then the trade goes kaput.

I’ve had more success by just laying it out there without saying much besides “what about Hilton and Alf for Hogan and Howard? Not even sure I’d do it. But if you’re into it, let me know.”

Gotta play it cool…


#14

The trade is not too bad but I would attempt to swap Beasley (no interest in him) with Paul Richardson.