@fun4willis Okay to clarify further. Let’s say you have one of the big 4 on your team (Gurley/DJ/Zeke/Bell) or even AB. CAll it the big 5. Knowing where you will draft is a an advantage to deciding your keepers because if you get the 1.01 or 1.02 where you know for certain you will get one of those players back, then you can happily release them into the pool and go to another keeper later for value later in the draft. Those who pick later in the draft, do not get that same advantage so they are forced into taking the safe route of keeping that player. And the later you are in the 1st round, the more keepers you have to then try and predict accurately to determine your draft strategy.
To use an example, let’s say you have gurley and OBJ on your team. OBJ would cost you a 2nd and gurley would cost you a 1st. Most people in redrafts would go with the gurley option in a vacuum given the scarcity in the position and not knowing a draft order, he still represents value. Assuming you have equal likelyhood of getting any position 1-12, than your average draft position is 1.06. Getting gurley at 1.06 would be an absolute steal in any draft so the smarter safer thing would be to keep gurley. However, if the draft order is determined and you somehow luck into the 1.01 draft position, then it’s a no brainer to keep OBJ and then go and draft gurley knowing you’re going to be able to get him. That is a positional advantage that someone who gets the 1.12 draft position doesn’t have the luxury of doing.
To me that is a clear advantage when one team can make easier/safer keeper decisions than someone else purely based off of draft position.
@DraftingBrettFavreFi yeah I mean that is good research by you. If you know Zeke is going back into the pool and you actually think you can secure a Zeke/barkley, I would do that. But seems like given you won’t know draft order, you could just as easily end up with 1.06 or later at which point you may not even get OBJ. It’s all up to you man. But as a penn state fan myself, i would not blame you for rolling the dice