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Standard league keep Tarik Cohen or Marquise Goodwin?


#1

Hey Footclan,

I play in a standard football league where we can keep one player year to year and if the player was undrafted the previous year you can keep them in the 16th round. So, I think the best route for me is to either keep Tarik Cohen or Marquis Goodwin in the 16th round.

Any advice?

Thanks,
Brett Favre


#2

Out of these two option, I prefer Goodwin. However, I’d be curious to see the rest of your team.


#3

Players%20and%20their%20draft%20position

Here is my whole team from last year and the round that I could keep them in this year.

Brett Favre


#4

I actually didn’t realize Deshaun Watson was undrafted last year so I may think about keeping him in the 16th round.


#5

I would agree, I prefer Watson over Goodwin.

That said, I would likely keep OBJ or Gronk. Do you know your draft position?


#6

Good question. Honestly I would prefer to keep OBJ or Gronk as well, but… we have to announce our keepers before we know the draft order (I hate this rule, but some members think it makes the draft more fair). So if I get an early draft pick (say 1-4) and get OBJ I think I’ll be disappointed, same goes for Gronk early in the second round.


#7

This rule is actually the appropriate way to do it. I commission a keeper league and have this rule as well. Otherwise, as your other members have correctly stipulated, it gives those with an earlier pick a much bigger advantage over those later in the draft. Which is unfair given those who pick earlier already get an inherent advantage by selecting the limited top assets.

Honestly if the top guys are gone (Gurley,DJ, Bell, Zeke, AB, Kamara) and I was picking early in the draft and get OBJ as my first pick, I would be pretty damn happy.

I would also definitely keep Watson for the 16th. I never keep QBs but at 16th round potentially get a top 5-6 QB is pretty valuable.


#8

@MikeMeUpp Can you expand on this “it gives those with an earlier pick a much bigger advantage over those later in the draft”?


#9

you make some good points. But most top running backs are gone so I am looking in the first round to at least pick up an Elliot, Barkley, Cook, or Hunt which I think I’ll be able to do. If I am picking near the back of the first then I think I’ll still be able to grab OBJ because my leaguemates are very running back oriented in the first couple rounds.


#10

@fun4willis Sorry I think I exaggerated with “much bigger” but i think bigger is definitely there. Trying to draft in a keeper is all about trying to predict what keepers others are taking. So the earlier you are in the draft, the less keepers you have to try and predict vs being later in a draft. Gives you more certainty going into your draft which to me is very valuable in determining draft strategy before hand. So not “much bigger” advantage as I have stipulated but the advantage is definitely there, however small it is. And given orders are typically determined based on luck/randomness, I try to remove any edges gained via such methods.

@DraftingBrettFavreFi If you think Zeke will be there or barkley will be there, then I would be fine with releasing OBJ back. Although not sure why Zeke would ever be released back into the pool as a keeper. If i was in any keeper format, I would never release Zeke back into the pool. Which would leave Barkley as the top contender and given you likely wouldn’t get him unless you had 1.01, I’d take the lower variance route and go with Barkley who in my eyes is easily a top 3-4 pick in competitive keeper formats. I’d take him over hunt or cook.


#11

So the team that is releasing Elliott also has Todd Gurley and he can keep Gurley in the 2nd round. So I am just assuming that he is keeping Gurley.


#12

And I would absolutely love to get Barkley on my team, I went to PSU for undergrad and I’m still here for grad school. We Are!


#13

@MikeMeUpp I did not mean to scrutinize your specific words. Whether it is a small or large advantage…

I don’t see any advantage. Just looking to clarify what the advantage is?

If everyone knows their draft spot, it might affect who you keep. But I don’t currently see the advantage an earlier draft position provides over a later one?

Thanks for clarifying!


#14

I mean I can see the advantage if say you have Todd Gurley on your team and you’re thinking about whether or not to keep him in the 1st round. Then you find out that you are drafting at the 1.01 spot. So obviously you don’t keep Gurley and instead draft him normally and keep someone in a later round. The advantage in this league goes to the people who get the earlier draft spots because they can make more informed decisions about early round keepers compared to people who draft near the end of the round.

Just my thoughts.

Also, I think I will end up going with Watson in the 16th for my keeper pick as long as he keeps looking healthy.

Thank you both for your input and help!


#15

Any advantage given to those with an earlier pick seems to be offset by the potential ADP value gained with those who have later picks, no? Getting to keeping Gurley in the 12 spot for example.

To be clear, I don’t feel strongly either way. Just curious about your thoughts.


#16

@fun4willis Okay to clarify further. Let’s say you have one of the big 4 on your team (Gurley/DJ/Zeke/Bell) or even AB. CAll it the big 5. Knowing where you will draft is a an advantage to deciding your keepers because if you get the 1.01 or 1.02 where you know for certain you will get one of those players back, then you can happily release them into the pool and go to another keeper later for value later in the draft. Those who pick later in the draft, do not get that same advantage so they are forced into taking the safe route of keeping that player. And the later you are in the 1st round, the more keepers you have to then try and predict accurately to determine your draft strategy.

To use an example, let’s say you have gurley and OBJ on your team. OBJ would cost you a 2nd and gurley would cost you a 1st. Most people in redrafts would go with the gurley option in a vacuum given the scarcity in the position and not knowing a draft order, he still represents value. Assuming you have equal likelyhood of getting any position 1-12, than your average draft position is 1.06. Getting gurley at 1.06 would be an absolute steal in any draft so the smarter safer thing would be to keep gurley. However, if the draft order is determined and you somehow luck into the 1.01 draft position, then it’s a no brainer to keep OBJ and then go and draft gurley knowing you’re going to be able to get him. That is a positional advantage that someone who gets the 1.12 draft position doesn’t have the luxury of doing.

To me that is a clear advantage when one team can make easier/safer keeper decisions than someone else purely based off of draft position.

@DraftingBrettFavreFi yeah I mean that is good research by you. If you know Zeke is going back into the pool and you actually think you can secure a Zeke/barkley, I would do that. But seems like given you won’t know draft order, you could just as easily end up with 1.06 or later at which point you may not even get OBJ. It’s all up to you man. But as a penn state fan myself, i would not blame you for rolling the dice :slight_smile:


#17

perfect explanation


#18

I see where @DraftingBrettFavreFi is coming from, and I somewhat agree with what he is saying. In the league I am in they do the same thing, figure out the draft order then choose the keeper. Last year my friend had David Johnson had he said depending on what number he got. If he was #1 or #2 he was going to keep someone else in the third or fourth, and pick DJ in the 1 or 2. He was give the 1.06 (in a 12 man) so he easily kept DJ.


#19

@MikeMeUpp that is another perfect more detailed explanation


#20

Yes this exactly. This is the type of unfair situation you want to avoid in your league / as a commissioner which is why I force people to submit keepers prior to draft order.