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Start up Dynasty question


#1

10 team Half PPR Dynasty Start up

Who is the better choice in a start up dynasty draft, Julio Jones or Melvin Gordon?


#2

Where is your next pick? I’d be inclined to go with Julio simply because he has four more solid years left with a solid QB. Phillip Rivers has at best two good years left, this will effect the stacking of the box on Gordon. Gordon good because of volume and the balanced offense, but doesn’t have the PPR talent to stand up compared to other guys. Though it can depend on who you might end up with in the second round. If you come around the turn and can get a guy like McKinnon or Cook then definetly take Jones. Kind of depends on who you can get on the turn, but I’d go with Jones. Also, I think Jones will provide more trade value down the road than Gordon if you’re first year or second year doesn’t go as planned.


#3

while i agree with your statement about the difference in QBs, i dont agree that julio has 4 more years at an elite level. he is 29, so the dip in production is coming in the next 2. im not saying he will suck, but a dip in production with matt ryan isnt a good thing, since he needs a lot of catches and yards to be viable without having TDs. maybe they move him to the slot and he produces like that, but maybe he doesnt.

gordon on the other hand is looking at an improved O line, (with the additions made last year that got hit by the injury bug) 2 more years at least with rivers, and most importantly he DOES have the PPR chops. 41 receptions 2 years ago with missing 3 games, and 58 last year. and rivers is another guy i can see making it to his 40s which would give him 4 more years with him, although not at as high as a level as we expect from him. add in positional scarcity, that melvin is just now hitting his prime (25 years old) and that he is sitting at 722 carries (850 including receptions) and its pretty easy to take him over julio in a dynasty.

dont get me wrong, i am not saying julio is a bad choice. but between the 2 its about splitting hairs, and when i look at it, gordon is just the better choice. he has volume, receptions, TDs (24 over the last 2 years) and everything is just trending up for him. better o line, better D to keep the chargers running… the list goes on. i love julio and he would not be a bad choice. i would take gordon before though, hands down.


#4

I am in some what of a unique situation. I have been very active with trading draft picks so I have the 1:04 (I will go running back). And I have recently traded up to the 2:02. I have spoke with everyone in my league, so I am running on assumption that these guys will be here at this spot. Thinking about, knowing I am going running back first I am leaning Julio. I appreciate both of your responses!


#5

That’s a good stat on Gordon. Wasn’t well aware if he was getting the targets. If Allen stays healthy do you think he will get the same or it doesn’t matter since now they have to make up for it with a weak TE spot?


#6

thats one area of concern i kind of have. how does keenan effect his receptions? i think he will see a minor bump down, but im not concerned about it at all. something like 50 receptions instead of 58. when keenan was hot, he was HOT. and it did seem to effect gordons targets. but not so much that he was useless. on the flip side though, his rushing attempts actually became more stable. and he still had high target games, one with 8, and 1 with 7. they also only lost 1 game during that stretch to KC, and no surprise his targets were high that game with 8. so yeah i think it does, but only when allen is on it. and even then it may not matter if they are playing from behind, because he does still get work in passing even when keenan is hot. but honestly, who cant say that when another player is on it, that their production goes down? so it doesnt bother me because i know he is going to have bust games just like everyone else. i still expect at least 50 receptions, and thats more than adequate in my mind.


#7

Good points. This definetly changes my outlook on him for 12 team leagues this year. Thanks!


#8

hey no problem! its what we are here for right? and sometimes we learn something we didnt know. happens to me damn near every time i get on these forums.


#9

I lean Gordon here, pretty heavily. I’ll think he’ll finish with more points on the year, is younger, and has naturally more value as an RB. As we’ve seen with Dez, once WRs hit 30 they become expendable quick… And Julio is an oft-injured WR who relies heavy on his ability to get separation. I just feel like once he hits a wall – whenever that is – his value will plummet. And you won’t see it coming, whereas Gordon is more predictable. IMO