Streaming Models for Week 10 (The Deep Stream)

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The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 10

BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / NOVEMBER 5, 2019

Nov 7th: Updated model to reflect Nick Foles as starting QB in Jacksonville.

Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST). You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and projection model it is based on here.

This week things start to get real. Whether you’re well on your way to the playoffs and eyeing late season matchups, on the fringe and looking for an edge to get your team over the hump, or in bad shape and preparing for one final, desperate push to get back into the fight, your roster decisions take on added weight with each passing week (but no matter how dire your situation, you haven’t given up… right?). To prepare for your endgame run, The Deep Stream now includes projections through Week 16 as well as projected averages specifically for Weeks 14-16.

As a reminder, The Deep Stream models contain math-only projections based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to help assess the favorability of upcoming matchups. It is a powerful tool, but should be used in combination with all available information and context. A great complimentary tool to aid in your analysis is The Fantasy Footballer’s new Stream Finder, which I wrote an introductory post about two weeks ago with some examples of the tool in action.

All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks


Adds

Ryan Tannehill (87% available). With three weeks of game data available, we can start to feel a little more confident in Tannehill’s prospects. His steady play so far and remaining schedule make him a viable starter that is available in most leagues, with a reasonable schedule right through the fantasy playoffs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (95% available). Miami’s passing game has become downright respectable from a fantasy standpoint with Fitz at the controls. He is the projected QB11 for the remainder of the season and the projected QB6 in the fantasy playoffs.

Others to Consider Adding

With Jacoby Brissett sidelined, Brian Hoyer is 100% available and is eminently playable as a streaming option against a Miami defense that has improved in recent weeks but should continue to be a plus matchup for opposing QBs. Nick Foles is on bye this week but projects to be a QB 1 the remainder of the season and the QB5 over the final two weeks of the playoffs.

Trade Away

Kyler Murray (86% owned, YTD rank: QB10, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: QB16). Murray had a decent bounce-back game last week and his upcoming matchup with Tampa Bay has him projected to be the QB3 this week. After that, however, Murray is projected to be the QB21 through the remainder of the fantasy season. Your best bet is to try and leverage his QB 1 status and the upcoming game with Tampa to get some value for him now.

Josh Allen (80% owned, YTD rank: 12, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: QB24). Allen has reasonable matchups the next two weeks that have him projected to be the QB7 over that span. His remaining schedule, however, reads like a dystopian hellscape of sadness that sees him projected as the QB29 over the final five weeks of the fantasy season. Likely to be a straight Drop candidate starting Week 13.

Drop

Jared Goff (80% owned, YTD rank: QB15, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: QB28). With only one favorable matchup remaining against Arizona in Week 14, and a playoff schedule that has him projected to be the QB30 Weeks 14-16, Goff can be safely dropped in single-QB leagues.

Kirk Cousins (70% owned, YTD rank: QB14, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: QB29). Cousins is projected to score less than 19 fantasy points in every remaining game this season and projects to be the QB26 in the fantasy playoffs.

Tight Ends


Adds

Jason Witten (49% available). Surprisingly still available in almost half of leagues, Witten is a steady TE 1 who also happens to be the projected TE5 Weeks 14-16.

Delanie Walker (53% available). Walker is tentatively set to return from an ankle injury this week to take up Tennessee’s starting tight end mantle again. Though he has a history as a reliable fantasy tight end when healthy, his projection as a low-end TE 1 for the remainder of the season should still come with some pause given his new QB and uncertainty on how he will be returning from injury.

Darren Fells (50% available). Fells is currently the touchdown leader among tight ends and remains a steady part of the Houston offense. His roughly 50/50 target split with Joran Akins limits his upside, though, and his league-leading six TDs make him a candidate for some TD regression.

Stashes

Jared Cook (51% available), Week 11. Cook has been mediocre all season, but Tampa Bay’s secondary will provide all of New Orleans’s pass-catchers as clean a path as possible to fantasy glory.

Vance McDonald (52% available), Week 14. McDonald is projected to be the TE1 when he suits up Week 14 against the Cardinals who have never met a tight end they didn’t want to succeed. McDonald also has a few playable weeks leading up to that. Just run far, far away before Weeks 15 & 16 where Rudolph projects to be the TE26.

Others to Consider Adding

Jack Doyle (70% available) and Jordan Akins (96% available) have nearly identical targets and receiving yardage as teammates Eric Ebron and Darren Fells, making them playable desperation options with TD upside. Gerald Everett is still out there in 42% of leagues and should be rostered and played. Just be prepared to find another option in Week 16 when the Rams pass-catchers all have appointments to be fitted for strait jackets by San Francisco’s defensive backfield. If you are extremely desperate or just love a good glory play, Charles Clay is 100% available and faces Tampa Bay’s hospitable secondary this week. O.J. Howard is 61% available and is projected to be the TE6 this week versus Arizona.

Drop

Greg Olsen (82% owned, YTD rank: TE12, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: TE25). With Cam out the rest of the year, there is no reason to have Olsen on your roster.

Jimmy Graham (70% owned, YTD rank TE19, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: TE20). A bye in two weeks and a string of ugly matchups for the rest of the year make Graham easily droppable.

DSTs


Adds

Kansas City (81% available). The Chiefs DST comes with some risk, but they are projected to be the DST7 rest of season and should be rostered. As a bonus, it will likely to snuff out your opponent’s will to live when you beat them with this defensive unit in your lineup.

New York Giants (96% available). One-week Stream. Projected to be the top-scoring defense in the league this week when they play the snake-bitten Jets.

Indianapolis (62% available), One-week Stream. Despite their recently-improved play, Miami is still allowing the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses.

Stashes

Washington (89% available), Week 11. A bad defense, but likely a top streaming option when they line up against the bumbling Jets offense in one week.

Cleveland (72% available), Week 12. Projected to be the DST5 against a better-but-not-good Miami team in two weeks.

Oakland (99% available), Week 12. A bit of a risk as Oakland is the DST28 on the year, but as the projected DST4 in Week 12 versus the Giants, it’s likely a risk worth taking.

Philadelphia (54% available), Green Bay (64% available). Weeks 13-14. These two teams project to be the DST8 and DST10, respectively, over the remaining seven weeks of the fantasy season. In both cases, however, that is mostly on the back of two great matchups in Weeks 13 & 14 when they project to be the DST3 (Phi) & DST4 (GB).

Others to Consider Adding

Carolina is projected to be the DST4 over the remainder of the year and still available in 42% of leagues. Despite a horrid performance against a stripped-down Miami roster, the New York Jets (85% available) are still a potential top DST play this week against the Giants and their turnover-prone QB.

Drop

Dallas Cowboys (55% owned, YTD rank: DST6, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: DST22). It’s always tough to drop a top-6 unit, but Dallas’s remaining schedule, including the fantasy playoffs, is littered with bottom-end scoring projections.

Los Angeles Chargers (60% owned, YTD rank: DTS21, Projected rank Weeks 10-16: DST30). Six in 10 fantasy owners are wasting a valuable bench spot or, worse yet, are actually playing the Chargers DST. Please do your part to help end this tragedy.

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

4 Likes

Hahahaha nice. I like the Chiefs this week too

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