Streaming Models for Week 11 (The Deep Stream)

Deep%20Stream%20Merged%20Pic%203
BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / NOVEMBER 12, 2019

Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST). As a reminder, The Deep Stream models provide scoring projections based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to help you assess the favorability of streaming matchups. It is a powerful tool but should be used in combination with all available information and context. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and projection model it is based on here.

A great complementary tool to aid in your analysis is The Fantasy Footballer’s Stream Finder. For some examples of the Stream Finder in action, see my introductory post from three weeks ago.

All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks


Adds
Ryan Tannehill (74% available). Since taking over full-time in Week 7, Tannehill is the QB7 and his remaining schedule has him projected to be the QB5. You will have to hold him through Tennessee’s bye if you add him this week, but he also shouldn’t cost you much FAAB either.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (91% available). Despite a disappointing outing against Indy, Fitz is projected to be the QB7 Weeks 12-16. You should add Fitz but find another option to play this week, though, when the Dolphins face a Bills defense that gives up the fourth-fewest points to rival QBs.

Nick Foles (85% available). Foles is back this week and worth a speculative add, especially with a Week 13 match against the Bucs defense, who, as we know, are against covering opposing pass-catchers on moral grounds.

Others to Consider Adding
Mason Rudolph (88% available) and Derek Carr (59% available) are both reasonable streams this week and are likely playable in a pinch next week as well.

Trade For
Russel Wilson (100% owned, YTD rank QB3, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: QB2). No, your opponent is not likely to part with Wilson and you will have to give up a lot to get him if they are. However, Seattle is on bye, so if the Wilson owner happens to be in a must-win situation this week and you have a QB that could help them, you might be able to swing a trade at slightly less-than-market value.

Trade Away
Patrick Mahomes (100% owned, YTD rank QB5, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: QB6). Wait… what?!? Just hear me out here. Mahomes will likely be great the rest of the season, so this trade isn’t about moving a bad asset, it’s about value. Mahomes has the second-hardest remaining schedule for fantasy QBs per FantasyPros, and “only” projects to be a top-6 QB from here on out. If you can get a significant premium for him, and there is a good chance you can, it’s worth checking your other QB options and seeing what people in your league are willing to pay for last year’s real-life and fantasy MVP.

Josh Allen (79% owned, YTD rank: 11, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: QB24). Probably your last chance to get any value for Allen as he faces off against a still-generous Miami defense this week. He projects as the QB26 the remainder of the season, so trade or play him this week, then bid farewell to Josh Stallion for the remainder of the fantasy season.

Drop
Jared Goff (84% owned, YTD rank: QB20, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: QB29). With only one favorable matchup remaining against Arizona in Week 14, and a playoff schedule that has him projected to be the QB31 Weeks 14-16, Goff has no place on your fantasy roster.

Kirk Cousins (72% owned, YTD rank: QB13, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: QB25). Cousins has QB 1 upside any given week, but his remaining schedule is difficult, he projects as a low-end QB 2 the rest of the season, and he still has a bye in Week 12. Better options should be available.

Philip Rivers (75% owned, YTD rank: QB21, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: QB23). Rivers has one favorable matchup remaining on his schedule in Week 16 vs. Oakland, but is otherwise likely a QB 2 and still has a bye week coming.

Tight Ends


Adds
Delanie Walker (63% available). Walker has a bye this week but should return from injury in Week 12 and has three favorable matchups in a row. He is only projected to be the TE17 Weeks 15 & 16, so you’ll need to secure another option if you’re still in it at that point.

Jacob Hollister (95% available). Hollister has become an established part of the Seattle offense, and with Lockett potentially missing some time in the coming weeks he is worth the add despite this week’s bye.

Darren Fells (65% available). Fells is a low-end TE 1 with TD upside, making him playable now despite his timeshare with Akins, and he is projected to be the TE6 Weeks 15-16.

Stashes
Vance McDonald (50% available), Week 14. McDonald is projected to be the TE1 when he plays the TE-friendly Cardinals in Week 14.

Others to Consider Adding
Jack Doyle (52% available) and Jordan Akins (97% available) still have similar targets and production to teammates Eric Ebron and Darren Fells, making them playable options with TD upside. Luck Stocker is not likely to come close to Hooper’s production in Atlanta, but he is 100% available and worth a speculative add, especially with a Week 13 match against the Bucs on the schedule.

Drop
Jimmy Graham (67% owned, YTD rank TE21, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: TE21). Graham is not worth holding onto through Green Bay’s bye (or at all).

O.J. Howard (42% owned), Kyle Rudolph (35% owned). An important note for anyone that added these two as streamers last week for their double-digit outings: both project outside the top 25 at the position for the remainder of the year.

DSTs

Adds
Carolina (50% available). Only available in half of leagues, and with a game against Atlanta coming you will probably have to spend up to get them, but Carolina is still the top DST add of the week.

New York Jets (85% available). The Jets will lineup against rookie signal-callers this week vs. Washington and again in Week 13 vs. Cincinnati, then take on a Miami offense in Week 14 that remains decidedly pro-turnover despite their recent winning streak. However, the Jets should be considered unplayable in Weeks 12, 15 & 16 when they play Oakland, Baltimore, and Pittsburg, respectively. They are worth adding for the three good matchups, but have other options for the remaining weeks.

Oakland (99% available). Two-week stream. Oakland’s next two opponents are 1) the Ryan Finley-led Bengals and 2) the out-of-sync Jets, who are allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses in the league and have allowed a top-10 DST in seven of their nine games. Have other options starting Week 13, though, as Oakland is the projected DST19 Weeks 13-16.

Stashes
Philadelphia (62% available), Green Bay (64% available). Weeks 13-14. These two teams project to be the DST5 and DST7, respectively, over the remaining six weeks of the fantasy season. In both cases, however, their ranking is mostly on the back of two great matchups in Weeks 13 & 14 when they each project as top-5 plays.

Houston (71% available), Weeks 14-16. Houston is technically playable every week except this one vs. Baltimore, but they are a top-6 DST Weeks 14-16.

Others to Consider Adding
Kansas City (59% available) is on bye in Week 12 and unplayable Week 13 vs. Oakland, but is projected to be a low-end DST 1 the remaining weeks. Washington is the DST26 on the year but is 92% available and a viable stream this week against a struggling Jets offense.

Drop
Los Angeles Chargers (60% owned, YTD rank: DTS22, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: DST28). Future historians will be baffled by many inexplicable things done by people in the late 2010’s, but few of those things will confuse them as much as the 60% of fantasy players in 2019 who insisted on continuing to roster the Chargers DST despite overwhelming evidence that it is injurious to their fantasy team’s outlook. As all good historians come to learn, though, some things simply cannot be explained.

Buffalo (85% owned, YTD rank: DST13, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: DST29). Buffalo plays Miami this week and is the projected DST8, so if you have them you are probably playing them. After that, however, they are projected to be the DST31 for the remainder of the season and should be dropped from your roster with great vengeance and furious anger.

Dallas Cowboys (44% owned, YTD rank: DST10, Projected rank Weeks 11-16: DST22). Although they’ve had week-winning fantasy performances, their inconsistency and remaining schedule make them a safe drop.

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

Bump… Just two waiver cycles left to get a jump on your streamers for Weeks 12 and beyond.