Streaming Models for Week 12 (The Deep Stream)

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Week 13 of The Deep Stream is now available here.

The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 12

BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / NOVEMBER 19, 2019

Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST). As a reminder, the Deep Stream models provide scoring projections based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (FPA) to help you assess the favorability of streaming matchups.

Using the Deep Stream models you can plan ahead and grab the best streamers before they become popular waiver-wire adds, saving you FAAB and/or waiver priority. The models can also help you identify players and defenses that are good season-long adds, and see when you should get away from underperforming assets that are not likely to turn things around. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and models here.

A great complementary tool to aid in your analysis is The Fantasy Footballer’s Stream Finder. For some examples of the Stream Finder in action, see my introductory post from a few weeks ago.

All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.

Summary
With the playoffs approaching, even small edges can be crucial, so I have included as many reasonable options as I could in the sections that follow. Some leagues still allow trades, so there are a few trading options as well. Here is a summary of this week’s recommendations.

Quarterbacks

Adds
Ryan Tannehill (82% available). Since taking over full-time in Week 7, Tannehill is the QB11 in full games played and his remaining schedule has him projected to be the QB5 rest-of-season (RoS).

Nick Foles (84% available). We only have one full week of game data, so this is still a bit of a speculative add, but Foles looked OK this week and he has the fifth-easiest remaining QB schedule per FantasyPros.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (92% available). His last two games have been bad, but Fitz has shown that he can still make plays and Miami has the fourth-easiest remaining QB schedule per FantasyPros, making Fitz the projected QB8 Weeks 14-16.

Week 12 Streamers
Sam Darnold (83% available), Jacoby Brissett (56% available) and Baker Mayfield (50% available) all project as lower-end QB 1 plays this week.

Trade Away
Patrick Mahomes (100% owned, YTD rank QB5, Projected rank Weeks 12-16: QB7). Yes, I’m still suggesting you trade last year’s real-life and fantasy MVP if you can, but only if you can get big value. That shouldn’t be too hard, though, given Mahomes’ name value and his good-but-not-great projection for the remainder of the year. His playoff run is especially tough, making him the projected QB19 Weeks 14-16. Mahomes is great and it’s OK to keep and play him, but there is a good chance you can get a premium for him compared to his projected results.

Drew Brees (97% owned, YTD rank QB19, Projected rank Weeks 12-16: QB23). Since returning from injury, Brees has scored nearly four points per game less than expectation in some very good matchups and now has the seventh-worst remaining QB schedule in the league. Worth trying to get some value after his decent outing vs. Tampa. Otherwise, it’s probably best to find a better option starting this week.

Josh Allen (86% owned, YTD rank: QB7, Projected rank Weeks 12-16: QB23). I have seen people getting trade offers for Allen on the back of his latest big game, so he gets one more week in the “Trade Away” section. Allen has the worst remaining QB schedule in the league according to FantasyPros and is projected to be the QB25 RoS, so don’t be fooled by his recent results. He is an unequivocal drop if you cannot trade him.

Drop
Jared Goff (74% owned), Philip Rivers (71% owned) and Jimmy Garoppolo (70% owned) all have difficult remaining schedules and project as QB25 or worse RoS. All three can be safely dropped, even The Handsome One himself, Jimmy G., who has done very well of late but does not get to play Arizona again until next season. For Goff owners that have held on this long, if you don’t have better options you can stash him until Week 13 when he plays Miami, but he projects to be entirely unplayable otherwise.

Tight Ends

Adds
Ryan Griffin (98% available). The Jets offense, which has been abysmal for most of the year, is starting to show signs of life and Griffin has been a beneficiary. With Herndon gone for the season, Griffin is a risky-ish play but one with top-5 upside in bleak tight end landscape.

Jacob Hollister (76% available). The projected TE5 for the remainder of the year, Hollister is likely to be a very popular add this week but is probably worth burning some FAAB or your waiver priority if you need a tight end.

Delanie Walker (67% available). Walker should finally return from injury this week and projects to be the TE11 RoS.

Darren Fells (56% available). Fells remains a low-end TE 1 / high-end TE 2 with TD upside but has very favorable matchups to end the year making him the projected TE8 Weeks 15-16.

Stashes
Vance McDonald (48% available), Week 14. McDonald is projected to be the TE2 when he plays the TE-friendly Cardinals in Week 14.

Drop
Jared Cook (87% owned, YTD rank TE13, Projected rank Weeks 12-16: TE27). Cook has put up double-digit points in four straight games, but is now facing the fourth-hardest remaining schedule for fantasy tight ends and can be dropped with zero guilt.

DSTs

Adds
Carolina (51% available). A reliable top-10 defense for the remainder of the year and available in half of leagues.

Week 12 Streamers
Oakland is 83% available and projected to be the DST4 this week vs. the Jets, Cleveland is 73% available and the projected DST5 vs. Miami and Tennessee is 59% available and projects to be the DST8 vs. Jacksonville.

Stashes
Philadelphia (62% available), Green Bay (68% available). Weeks 13-14. These two teams project to be the DST5 and DST6, respectively, over the remaining five weeks of the fantasy season. In both cases, however, their ranking is mostly on the back of two great match-ups in Weeks 13 and 14 when they both project as top-3 defenses.

New York Jets (76% available). Weeks 13-14. The up-and-down Jets D has two great matchups Weeks 13 and 14 where they project to be the DST4.

Houston (71% available), Weeks 14-16. Houston is technically playable every remaining week of the season, but they are projected to be a top-6 DST Weeks 14-16.

New York Giants (94% available), Weeks 15-16. The Giant’s defense has been quite mediocre this year, but in their final two weeks of the fantasy season they play Miami and Washington making them the projected DST5 over that time.

Trade Away
Chicago (91% owned, YTD rank DST13, Projected rank Weeks 12-16: DST13). Chicago projects to be a DST 1 Weeks 12-16, but after their game against the Giants this week things get much harder, making them the projected DST25 Weeks 13-16. They project to be the second-best defense in fantasy this week but if you have other options and trades are still open in your league you might get good value from someone that needs a boost from their defense this week. This unit is likely a full drop next week.

Drops
Buffalo (85% owned, YTD rank: DST10, Projected rank Weeks 12-16: DST32). Despite being a top-10 defense on the year, Buffalo’s remaining schedule is brutal against fantasy defenses (third-worst) and they project to be dead-last in fantasy scoring RoS. Press the Drop button and don’t look back.

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

2 Likes

So its all really close on the qb stream in the playoffs with whats available for me. Have used Brissett most of the year but his playoff schedule (really the championship) is concerning do you trust what got you a first round bye in the playoffs or stream Fitsmagic or Jones in what would basically be the playoff finals?

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Personally I would favor the better match ups and take my chances with Fitz or Jones. Brissett is a low-end QB 2 projection which is too grim for me to ride with. Hope you make it that far and get to roll one of them out!

Thats the hope. But i do have a open spot to grab one now. toss of a coin or you have one you like more than the other between fitz and jones for weeks 15 16?

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I would go against the model in that scenario and take Jones simply because of the risk that Fitz gets benched again for Rosen to close out the year.

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Good stuff man. I will follow this chart and play Browns defense. I will play younghoe as the kicker and go with 3 running backs. Nick Chubb, Jonathan Williams and Tevin Coleman. My 2 Julius Edelman and DK Metkalf, Russel Wilson at QB. Mark Andrew’s as my TE.

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How do you feel about me Trading Kittle and sticking with Andrew’s all season long? I need a WR. Who should I aim for?

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I’d be very comfortable rolling with Andrews. Who to trade for is hard, it’s really dependent on your league and how much other owners value him. Have you ever used trade value charts? They can be a good way to get an idea of who you might go after. FantasyPros has their Week 11 chart up here and should publish one for this week tomorrow.

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Its 12 team standard league and so far everyone is talking trash about Kittle because his injured. So yeah that ship has sailed.

Here is what got a bit tricky.

Broncos held cook and chubb under 11 points.
Texans rank 11 against the run but Ingram got 20 points against them on Sunday. Being a short week game for Texans. Is this a good advantage to start Jonathan Williams over Devin Singletary?

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There are a lot of different factors in skill positions starts, so I defer to the Baller’s rankings unless I have a strong reason to do otherwise. They put a lot of research and knowledge into their weekly rankings algorithms, and their rankings are consistently in the top tier of accuracy among fantasy experts. So I go with their rankings and don’t look back.

So Singletary it is. Thanks.

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why is noah fant rated so low? is this ppr or non ppr? it seems like the volume is there and he is doing well by te standards. he had 11 targets last week

I’m a Denver fan so I really wanted Fant’s projection to be higher. I actually tried to get him in my league anyway but my Denver-based opponents took him a while ago.

Anyway, there are two factors to the ranking: remaining schedule and how he has performed vs. expectation so far this year. Denver’s remaining schedule is very bad - they have the sixth worst remaining schedule for fantasy tight ends. Fant has also under-performed vs. expected points by 1.7 points per week on average. There is some reason for optimism, however. His peripheral numbers (targets, air yards) have been good, and in their last two games with Allen at QB, Denver’s tight ends have outperformed expectation by 8.5 points per game. That’s a small sample, but it’s a huge difference. So if you think that his usage and performance will continue at that level, he could arguably be a top-10 TE RoS. I think it will be tough to expect that level of performance, but it’s very reasonable to project him higher than I have based on how he and Allen have played the last two weeks. All that assumes that they don’t switch to Lock at QB which would introduce all new variables.

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I know you have Ryan Griffin ranked higher than Jacob Hollister this week but is that because of his upside? I was thinking Hollister. I’m full point PPR

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No, my model just projects Griffin to score more. The outlook doesn’t change for full PPR vs. half-point. The Ballers also have Griffin three slots higher in their rankings this week (TE7 vs. TE10). I think both have similar upside. Griffin is getting a higher share of targets, but Seattle is a better offense, and both are capable of having big weeks. All that said, if you feel better about Hollister, the rankings are close and it really comes down to whether or not they score a TD. I would go Griffin myself, but Hollister should be a good play too.

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