Week 14 of The Deep Stream is now available here.
The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 13
Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share waiver recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) based on the Deep Stream scoring projection models. Using the models, you can plan ahead and grab the best streamers before they become popular waiver-wire adds, saving you FAAB / waiver priority. The models can also help you identify players and defenses that are good season-long adds and see when you should get away from underperforming assets that are not likely to turn things around. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and models here.
Two great complementary tools to aid in your analysis are The Fantasy Footballer’s Stream Finder and Strength of Schedule Tool. For some examples of the Stream Finder in action, see my introductory post from a few weeks ago.
All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.
A summary of the recommendations contained in the sections that follow is below.
Ryan Tannehill (79% available). Since taking over full-time in Week 7, Tannehill is the QB3 in full games played and his remaining schedule has him projected to be the QB2 rest-of-season (RoS). Unfortunately, he finished second only to Lamar “MVP” Jackson in scoring this week, which means you will probably have to pay up to get him.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (92% available). Fitzmagic is having fun playing QB regardless of how badly his team is doing, which translates to lots of points for your fantasy team. I would prefer not to play him this week against Philadelphia where he projects to be the QB21, but Weeks 14-16 he is the projected QB6 and a worthy add.
Sam Darnold (71% available). Two-week stream. Darnold’s next two opponents are the QB-friendly Bangles and Dolphins, making him the projected QB10 and QB7 in Weeks 13 and 14, respectively. Have other options to finish out your playoff run, though, as Darnold projects to be the QB28 Weeks 15-16.
Nick Foles (72% available). We still only have a two (full) game sample size with Foles, and his rough outing against Tennessee makes me reluctant to consider him viable RoS play. However, I will happily stream him this week against a Tampa Bay defense that is still giving up the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Jeff Driskel (78% available). Weeks 14-15. In his three full games played Driskel is the QB12. I would avoid him this week, but he projects to be the QB2 in Week 15 thanks to a tilt with the coverage-adverse Buccaneers. He is also a reasonable play Week 14 vs. Minnesota.
Andy Dalton (95% available). Weeks 14,16. Dalton is a limited QB on a poor offense, but thanks to positive matchups he is projected to be the QB11 Week 14 vs. Cleveland and the QB6 Week 16 vs. the Dolphins.
Jacoby Brissett (48% available). Week 14. Brissett was a popular streaming option this past week and pooped right in his big boy pants. Despite that, he is still projected to be the QB4 when he lines up against the Tampa Bay Can’t-Covers and is a good stash. If he’s not currently available in your league, be sure to “drop it like it’s hot” and check to see if he is dropped when waivers are run.
Daniel Jones (70% available). Week 15. Another middling QB on a so-so offense in a great matchup, Jones gets a shot at returning to Danny Dimes form when he plays the not-tanking-but-still-bad Miami Dolphins in Week 15.
Jared Goff (65% owned), Philip Rivers (53% owned) and Jimmy Garoppolo (71% owned). One more time for those in the cheap seats: All three of these QBs have difficult remaining schedules, project as QB25 or worse RoS, and should be dropped. For Goff owners that have held on this long, “King” Goffrey projects to be the QB14 this week against Miami, so if you don’t have better options you can hang on for one more week. But he is projected to be the QB29 or worse every remaining week of the season after that and should only be played if you were made an offer you couldn’t refuse by local mafia-types to compel you to throw your fantasy playoff matches.
Josh Allen (84% owned). Since I first recommended trading him away four weeks ago, Josh Stallion has been the QB5 on a points-per-game basis. Super-sized ‘L’ for me. Despite that, I am quintupling-down and calling Allen a drop, but with a caveat. If we take an optimistic view and project him to match his performance level of the last four weeks for the rest of the season, he would go from being the projected QB24 to the QB13 RoS. So, if you believe that his last four weeks are more representative of his future performance than the rest of the season, AND you don’t have better options than a low-end QB 1, Allen is probably worth keeping.
Jacob Hollister (40% available). Hollister is the projected TE7 RoS and the TE1 Week 16.
Ryan Griffin (65% available). You will likely be competing for his services on waivers, but Griffin is the best widely-available TE add this week and projects to be the TE11 RoS.
David Njoku (75% available). Njoku’s projection assumes usage similar to his one full game in Week 1, so this is an extremely speculative add, but it is also one that could pay off nicely.
Jack Doyle (62% available). Doyle currently only projects to be the TE16 RoS, but with Ebron on IR, Doyle should be in line for a significant increase in target share, giving him mid-level TE 1 upside.
Delanie Walker (70% available). I am keeping him here one last week in the event he finally returns from injury. If he does, he projects to be the TE12 RoS.
Vance McDonald (38% available), Week 14. McDonald is projected to be the TE3 when he plays Arizona and should be stashed. Though not currently widely available, his 0.6 point outing this last week means he will be dropped in many leagues when waivers run.
Nick O’Leary (0% owned). If Seth DeValve continues to be sidelined with an oblique injury, O’Leary becomes a sneaky streaming play this week against Tampa Bay, the second-best matchup in the league for fantasy tight ends.
Carolina (58% available). Surprisingly available in over half of leagues, Carolina projects to be the DST6, DST6, and DST9 over the next three weeks. Week 16 they project to be the DST14, so it’s worth considering other options if you advance to the finals.
New York Jets (84% available). Sure to be a popular add this week, the Jets project to be the DST2 Weeks 13 & 14 and the DST10 Week 16. Be sure and have another plan for Week 15, however, when they play the Baltimore Points-Scorers and project to be the DST28.
Philadelphia (62% available), Green Bay (68% available). Two-week streams. Both teams have been listed as stashes in this column for the last four weeks, so hopefully you already have one of them on your roster. Philadelphia projects to be to be the DST4 this week and the DST3 in Week 14; Green Bay projects to be the DST3 this week and the DTS9 Week 14.
New York Giants (94% available), Weeks 15-16. The Giant’s defense has been quite mediocre this year, but in their final two weeks of the fantasy season they play Miami and Washington, making them the projected DST5 over that time.
Kansas City (76% available). Weeks 15-16. The entirely-serviceable Chiefs defense projects to be the DST6 Weeks 15 & 16 combined.
Washington (86% available). Week 16. The DST22 on the year projects to be the DST4 championship week when they take on Daniel Jones who, as everyone knows, is happy to throw the occasional interception but gets downright giddy when given a chance to lose a fumble.
Houston (72% available). Week 16. Jameis Winston has committed a league-leading 24 turnovers through 12 weeks. He faces the Houston defense in Week 16 where they are the projected DST5.
Buffalo (87% owned, YTD rank: DST9, Projected rank Week 13-16: DST31). Despite being a top-10 defense on the year and putting up a combined 23 points the last two weeks, Buffalo’s remaining schedule is 31st-best against fantasy defenses, making them the projected DST31 RoS.
Chicago (96% owned, YTD rank: DST13, Projected rank Week 13-16: DST29). Another good defense with a bad schedule, Chicago has the worst remaining schedule in the league for fantasy defenses and projects to be the DST29 RoS.
That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!