Streaming Models for Week 14 (The Deep Stream)

[Sith_Are_People_Too]

Week 15 of The Deep Stream is now available here.

The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 14

BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / DECEMBER 3, 2019

Welcome to the second-to-last installment of The Deep Stream this year, where I share waiver and start/sit recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) based on the Deep Stream scoring projection models. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and models here. Two great complementary tools to aid in your analysis are The Fantasy Footballer’s Stream Finder and Strength of Schedule Tool.

For everyone still alive in the playoffs, congratulations! And for the rest of you who are out of it but still managing your teams to avoid last place, crush an opponent’s dreams, or just finish the season with class – strong work, glad to still have you here.

All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.

Summary

Quarterbacks

Adds
Ryan Tannehill (70% available). Since taking over full-time in Week 7, Tannehill is the QB6 in full games played despite putting up his worst game of the season this week. Somehow people have not jumped on him yet, and his game this week may scare your opponents away. Don’t make that mistake yourself – add Ryan Tannehill.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (92% available). Another guy I’ve had on the “Add” list for four weeks, Fitzpatrick is projected to be the QB5 Weeks 14-16. His top-3 finish this week will likely cause your QB-needy opponents to come around on the Fitzmagic experience as well, so some FAAB may be required to get him.

Streams
Sam Darnold (58% available) and Jacoby Brissett (53% available). Both guys had less-than-inspiring results last week, with Brissett coming in at the QB19 and Darnold straining the eyes with his QB30 “performance”. Despite that, both remain viable streams next week as they play Tampa (Darnold) and Arizona (Brissett), who are allowing the second and third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing pass-throwers respectively.

Stashes
Daniel Jones (70% available), Week 15, David Blough (99% available), Week 15, and Andy Dalton (94% available), Week 16. These QBs’ scheduled tilts with Miami or Tampa Bay have them all projected to have top-8 weeks in Weeks 15 or 16.

Drops
Jared Goff (63% owned), Philip Rivers (52% owned) and Jimmy Garoppolo (70% owned). These QBs all project to be QB21 or worse RoS and should not be relied on for your playoff push (or even your consolation bracket push). Rivers has the only remotely playable match left of the group in his Week 16 contest with Oakland where he is projected to be the QB14 (assuming he isn’t benched by then).

A word about Josh Allen
Last week I held firm to my opinion that Josh Allen was a drop, and he again performed well, coming in as the QB10 vs. his projection of QB20. On the season, Allen is exceeding expectation by an average of 3.2 points per week based on opponent’s schedule-adjusted FPA. However, over the last six weeks, he is exceeding expectation by 5.1 points per week. So, Allen seems to have leveled-up and his projections could be adjusted accordingly. Giving him those extra points, he would go from being the projected QB25 RoS to the QB15 (albeit with top-5 upside). As I said last week, if you believe his recent performance is sustainable he is a viable low-end QB 1, and a low-end QB 1 performance is exactly what he gave you this week. I personally would prefer other options going forward given his remaining schedule, but Allen is a reasonable play.

Tight Ends

Adds
Jacob Hollister (52% available). Hollister is the projected TE6 RoS and the TE1 Week 16 when he takes on Arizona, the most tight-end friendly defense in the land.

Jack Doyle (48% available). With Ebron on IR and Hilton out with injury, Doyle’s target share increased dramatically. He should remain a focal point of the offense going forward and has a very favorable schedule, including a match with Tampa Bay this week that has him projected to be the TE1.

Ryan Griffin (60% available) and Daniel Fells (69% available). Projected to be borderline TE 1’s / TE 2’s RoS, both are playable in the current dystopian tight end landscape.

Streams
Vance McDonald (45% available), One-week stream. McDonald is currently unplayable in standard 12-team leagues. Unless, that is, he is facing the Arizona defense which is giving up 16.8 points per week in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing tight ends, the most in the league and 32% more than second-place Tampa Bay. McDonald projects to be the TE4 this week.

Stashes
David Njoku (25% owned), Week 15. Njoku failed to get onto the field last week and is a very speculative add. However, if he plays this week and re-establishes himself as a steady part of the offense, he has TE1-upside in Week 15 when the Browns take on Arizona.

DSTs

Adds
Kansas City (76% available). The surprisingly-respectable Chiefs DST is projected to be the DST5 RoS and comes with potential upside when they take on Denver and their rookie signal-caller in Week 15.

Houston (72% available). Projected to be a low-end DST 1 RoS, Houston’s defense should get a boost this week when they get to be the first team to have tape to properly prepare for playing Denver’s new rookie QB, Drew Lock.

Seattle (57% available) and Carolina (49% available). The projected DST6 and DST7 RoS, Seattle and Carolina are solid options for your playoff roster if they happen to be available in your leagues.

Streams
Philadelphia (50% available). The projected DST3 this week is still available in half of leagues.

New York Jets (78% available). A scheduled tilt with the Dolphins has the Jets in line for a get-right game where they are projected to be this week’s DST4.

Indianapolis (60% available) and Green Bay (66% available) project to be this week’s DST9 and DST11, respectively.

Stashes
New York Giants (94% available), Weeks 15-16. The Giant’s defense is ranked 23rd on the year, but in the final two weeks of the fantasy season they play Miami and Washington, making them the projected DST7 over that time.

Washington (87% available). Week 16. The DST19 on the year projects to be the DST4 championship week when they take on Daniel Jones who’s 21 turnovers on the year are second only to Jameis Winston’s 25

Drops
Buffalo (84% owned, YTD rank: DST9, Projected rank Week 14-16: DST28). Despite being a top-10 defense on the year and putting up a combined 36 points the last three weeks, Buffalo’s remaining schedule is 31st-best against fantasy defenses, making them the projected DST28 RoS.

Chicago (96% owned, YTD rank: DST15, Projected rank Week 14-16: DST31). Another good defense with a bad schedule, Chicago has the worst remaining schedule in the league for fantasy defenses and projects to be the DST31 RoS.

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

[Sith_Are_People_Too]

Waivers have run for most people - be sure to “drop it like it’s hot” and check for QBs/TEs/DSTs that were dropped with good matchups in next three weeks!

[EyeSick]

Your model really doesn’t like Gesicki lol.

[Sith_Are_People_Too]

It really doesn’t. It’s based on season-long data and obviously he’s coming on the last couple of weeks. So there’s an argument that he’ll outperform this if you believe recent performance will sustain. He also has a tough upcoming schedule - 3rd hardest in the league for TEs.

[EyeSick]

I was just saying, the ballers were clear they’d start him over hooper this week and they like gesicki as a top tier tight end rest of season. Ive pretty much been streaming Griffin hollister and gesiki so It just caught my attention how high the ballers are on him.

[Sith_Are_People_Too]

I agree I’m a bit out on a limb with him, and generally don’t feel real comfortable when I’m in contrast with Baller’s rankings. I’ll be watching closely this week to see if his trend continues.

[ydocgnortsmra]

Thanks for this!

[southside_at]

Great stuff as always.

[Sith_Are_People_Too]

Seen many questions about pivoting away from Philly’s DST with Eli now set to start. Most analysts seem to be keeping their rankings about the same or slightly reducing them. Here’s answer I’ve given:

We only have two games of data on Eli, but he had roughly the same Ints and as Jones on a per game basis and did lose one fumble, and that was a trend that continued from last year. He is likely to take fewer sacks, though, which is a bit of a concern. I would fade the Eagles DST by 2-3 points in expectation. In my DST model, that would make them go from being the DST3 this week to the DST12-13, but still with upside from turnovers and potential TDs. I’d make my decision based on that and who else is available. It’s a shame, too, because it was such a great DST play.

[MayoLuver]

My hot take is Eli is about to light the field on fire

[postgambino]

Against miami and washington i agree Eli that potencial to be a league winner… This week id only pivot from the eagles d/st if i had a way better option(someone playing miami or washington for example)… But i have that funny feeling that Eli might surprise us against philly

[isaeed]

I saw your reply somewhere but couldn’t find it again. I was gonna play eagles def but with Eli playing I was thinking between colts or titans. Now with a rainy forecast does that give the eagles a boost? If not then if in understand your mode correctly you’ll prefer colts over titans?

[Sith_Are_People_Too]

Yes I prefer Indy over TEN for sure. Tougher call now on Eagles. Weather does make some difference. I would go back to Philly. I also checked the Ballers rankings and they do have Philly higher as of this morning, so that’s how I’d lean. Good luck!

[isaeed]

Thanks man!!
And good luck to all!

[legacy_monarch]

I have Wentz, Winston, and ryan. Which do you start?

[Sith_Are_People_Too]

I think I would stick with Wentz over those two this week. Full disclosure, though, The Ballers like Winston a lot more than I do this week. Good luck!

[legacy_monarch]

I think im going to stick with Wentz. I think he will be throwing the ball alot, regardless of weather.