Streaming Models for Week 5 (The Deep Stream)

The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 5 (Deep Stream Week 6 is now also available)

BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / OCTOBER 1, 2019

Welcome to the second edition of The Deep Stream, where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) for the next six weeks. You can find a more detailed introduction to The Deep Stream approach and projection model here.

With Week 4 in the books, we now have 31% more game data, so The Deep Stream model will evolve quickly, and we need to be ready to pivot equally quickly as some trends are re-enforced and others are turned sideways. Let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks

Adds
Here are this week’s top Deep Stream QB adds:

Jameis Winston (44% available). Hopefully you already stashed him to play versus New Orleans this week where he is now projected to be the QB1. After surprising everyone with a nuclear outing against the previously-tough Rams he may be harder to grab for the stream now. If you can get him and have the roster space, he also has some stash value for Weeks 9 & 10 against Seattle and Arizona.

Gardner Minshew (85% available). You won’t want to play him this week against Baltimore, but The Secret Garden is projected to be the QB7 Weeks 6 to 9. It may be risky to wait until next week to grab him when everyone will see the tilt with New Orleans looming.

Jacoby Brissett (66% available). Indy’s new franchise QB has been steady so far and has a game this week with the Chiefs that should provide a positive game script for fantasy scoring. There is also stash value for a Week 10 game against the Miami Fishtankers.

Andy Dalton (76% available). Gross, I know, but even Andy Dalton is projected to be the QB3 when he gets to play the Arizona defense. If you didn’t stash him last week, his dud in Week 4 might help you get him this week, though your opponents may also be willing to go dumpster diving for the AZ matchup. Likely a one-week-only rental.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

Mason Rudolph (88% available), Week 8, projected to be the QB2. If you can hang onto him for a few weeks, Rudolph has the chance to bring home a bundle of fantasy points in Week 8. Depending on your league, it’s probably safe to wait at least one more week to grab him.

Fades
These QBs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring:

Baker Mayfield (84% owned, YTD rank: QB26, Projected rank Weeks 5-10: QB30). Baker is still highly owned, but any chance to trade him for name value is probably gone. He can be dropped at this point if you need the roster space.

Trade Away
QBs to consider trading away:

Aaron Rodgers (98% owned, YTD rank: QB18, Projected rank Weeks 5-10: QB20). His ownership and name value still exceed his performance and projected ranking for the foreseeable future, so consider getting something for him if you can.

Phillip Rivers (87% owned, YTD rank: QB11, Projected rank Weeks 5-10: QB24); Jerad Goff (88% owned, YTD rank: QB16, Projected rank Weeks 5-10: QB23). Rivers and Goff have both performed reasonably well and are highly-owned, but have an extremely tough six weeks in front of them without any great matchups in the mix to make them worth holding. Get something in return now if you can.

Tight Ends
A note on Tight End projections: Tight end scoring is relatively low, but has high variance, resulting in some negative point projections. I present those projections as-is, not because I expect these players to put up a negative stat line, but to show the relative strength of each matchup based on the numbers.

Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream TE adds:

Jason Witten (46% available). Slow and steady, Witten has been the TE14 so far on the year, and projects to be the TE11 for the next six weeks.

Tyler Eifert (83% available). Eifert and the Bengals play Arizona this week, which is more than enough motivation to get him into your lineup. Just don’t expect much after this week.

Jordan Akins (92% available). Projected to be the TE13 Weeks 5 to 9, Akins is a readily-available fringe TE1.

Fades
These TEs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring:

Jared Cook (75% owned, YTD rank: TE36, Projected rank Weeks 5-10: TE17). Hang onto him for a Week 8 match with Arizona if you have the space and are optimistic that Drew Brees’ return will turn things around. Otherwise he’s a drop candidate.

T.J. Hockenson (71% owned, YTD rank: TE11, Projected rank Weeks 5-10: TE22). Things were a little better for The Hockstrap this week, but he now has a bye week and a game against Green Bay and their seventh-ranked defense versus fantasy tight ends after that. It’s tough to just drop a talent like Hockenson given the alternatives, but the outlook so far is not good.

DSTs

Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream DST adds:

San Francisco (73% available). Good availability after their bye and projected to be second in DST scoring behind New England over the next six weeks (albeit a distant second).

Tennessee (63% available). The projected DST6 for the next six weeks, Tennessee continues to be underrated and mostly available.

Cleveland (61% available). Projected to be the DST8 Weeks 5 & 6 combined.

Stashes
Stashes continue to be largely driven by which team is playing a Miami outfit that has zero desire to participate in competitive football matches this season. The following are rare DST streams that merit multi-week stashes on your bench:

Washington (96% available, plays Miami Week 6), Buffalo (34% available - but watch for that to increase next week, plays Miami Week 7), Pittsburg (63% available, plays Miami Week 8), New York Jets (93% available, plays Miami Week 9), Indianapolis (58% available - but this will increase this week, plays Miami in Week 10).

Fades
These DSTs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring:

Los Angeles Chargers (95% owned, YTD rank: DST21, Projected rank Weeks 5-10: DST32). The Charger’s defense has been bad so far, and a slate of horrific upcoming matches has them projected to be first worst over the next month-and-a-half, yet they are 95% owned. There is no reason for this defensive unit to be on your roster unless you have an immediately family member on the team (and even if you do, you should still drop them).

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

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