Streaming Models for Week 6 (The Deep Stream)

The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 6 (Deep Stream Week 7 is now also available)

BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / OCTOBER 8, 2019

Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) for the upcoming six weeks. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and projection model it is based on here.

As a reminder, The Deep Stream model provides math-only scoring projections to help assess the favorability of weekly streaming-position matchups. With Week 5 down we have 14 additional games of data (an increase of 23%), so it’s crucial that we “remain water” and adjust to the week’s evolving fantasy landscape. Let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks


Adds
Here are this week’s top Deep Stream QB adds:

Josh Allen (48% available). Time to saddle up again with Josh Stallion. He is on bye this week but returns to the warm embrace of Miami’s accommodating defense in Week 7. Even after that, Allen is projected to be the QB3 Weeks 8-11. If he’s not available in your league now, be sure to “drop it like it’s hot” and watch for him to be dropped during this week’s waivers.

Gardner Minshew (79% available). Already the QB12 on a points-per-game basis, the Magic Mustache is projected to be the QB8 Weeks 6-11. He’s nearly 80% available, but with his strong showing against Baltimore this week and an enticing matchup with New Orleans on deck, you will probably have to spend some FAAB or use waiver priority to get him.

Case Keenum (95% available), one-week-only stream. Case is projected to be the QB6 in his game against the very-accommodating Miami Dolphins. Depending on how much you believe Bill Callahan’s stated intention of running the ball like it’s 1999, Keenum could be a great last-minute stream.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

Sam Darnold (90% available), starting Week 9. Darnold is likely to return to action this week, but you probably won’t want to play him right away with upcoming tilts against Dallas, New England and Jacksonville lined up. Starting in Week 9, however, Darnold has a three-week stretch where he is projected to be the QB5, starting with a game against Miami’s power-puff defense. As a bonus, Darnold gets to play Miami a second time in Week 14.

Mason Rudolph (88% available), Week 8. Rudolph is projected to be the QB3 when he gets his shot against the Miami Fishtankers. With a tough matchup against the Chargers this week and a bye following that, you should still be able to wait another week and still grab him for free unless your league has one of those Steelers fans that drafted James Washington AND put in a 25% waiver claim last week on Diontae Johnson (what’s up Justin?).

Fades
These QBs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring:

Baker Mayfield (85% owned, YTD rank: QB30, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: QB32). Baker shouldn’t be rostered by any fantasy owners at this point (other than Hue Jackson, who, as part of his penance for waiting so long to play his rookie signal-caller last year, has promised to draft him in the first round and start him every week in all his fantasy leagues through 2038).

Trade Away
QBs to consider trading away:

Aaron Rodgers (99% owned, YTD rank: QB20, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: QB17). Rodgers remains no more than a solid QB 2 with upside, yet still has top-end QB ownership levels. Worth trying to package him in a trade to upgrade at another position (or get a true top-end QB).

Carson Wentz (97% owned, YTD rank: QB10, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: QB26). Wentz has performed well, but has a bevy of rough matchups ahead, leaving him projected to barely be a QB 2 over his next five games. Perfect time to get out while there is still perceived value.

Phillip Rivers (86% owned, YTD rank: QB17, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: QB24); Jerad Goff (88% owned, YTD rank: QB15, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: QB21). Trade value is probably gone for both of these under-performers at this point, but it might be worth one final push to try and package them with another piece to get an upgrade on your roster. That said, both have reasonably-good matches in Week 7 if you have the space to hold them another week, you’ll just want to have another option for this week.

Tight Ends
A note on Tight End projections: Tight end scoring is relatively low, but has high variance, resulting in some negative point projections. I present those projections as-is, not because I expect these players to put up a negative stat line, but to show the relative strength of each matchup based on the numbers.

Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream TE adds:

Jason Witten (47% available). TE15 on the year and projected to be the TE12 over his next five games, Witten is still worth an add if he’s available.

Dawson Knox (89% available). Knox continues to come on in Buffalo and projects just outside TE 1 territory Weeks 7-11. You may be able to wait a week to pick him up with a Week 6 bye coming, but if you are tight end-needy (and who among us isn’t?), he’s worth grabbing now if you have the space.

Jordan Akins / Daniel Fells (93% & 99% available, respectively). With targets split almost evenly on the year with 56% for Akins and 44% for Fells, it seems like a true Tight-End-by-Committee in Houston, with enough points going to the position to make both viable starters. Both are readily available, and the Deep Stream model has both as low-end TE 1 options going forward. In the burning hellscape that is the tight end position in fantasy football, you could do worse (and probably have).

Trade For
George Kittle (100% owned, YTD rank: TE7, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: TE3). You likely won’t be able to get him, but Kittle may actually be under-valued. His next three matchups are mediocre-to-bad, but starting in Week 9 he plays Arizona, Seattle and Arizona, a heavenly run during which Kittle is not only projected to be the run-away TE1, he is projected to outscore the TE2 over those three weeks by 57%. You will have to pay a lot to get him, but this is a rare case where it could make sense to overpay by conventional standards.

DSTs


Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream DST adds:

San Francisco (62% available). Still mostly available, San Francisco’s upcoming schedule is so delightful, including two games against Arizona, that they may even mount a challenge to New England’s dominance as the clear DST1.

Pittsburg (74% available). Their DST3 projection Weeks 6-11 is partly due to their Week 8 game with the semi-professional team in Miami. It’s not all the Miami match, though, as the Steelers are still projected to be the DST8 excluding Week 8.

New York Jets (92% available). Widely available coming off a bye, the Jets next three weeks look to be mediocre, but Weeks 9-11 they project to be the number one DST, highlighted by a Week 9 game against, you guessed it, Miami.

Buffalo (25% available). The are probably not available (grab them if they happen to be there), but they do have a bye this week so be sure to “drop it like it’s hot” and watch your league’s waivers to see if someone needed to let them go to free up a roster spot. With games scheduled against Miami in Weeks 7 AND 11, you should snatch them up, and even be willing to drop some FAAB if you’re playing in a league where people tend to pay attention to these things.

One-Week Adds
There are several good streaming options for Week 6, including the projected Week 6 DST1:

Washington (96% available), projected to be the top-scoring DST in Week 6 (the Miami Fishtankers strike again!).
Green Bay (67% available), projected to be the DST5 in Week 6.
Carolina (50% available), projected to be the DST6 in Week 6.

Stashes
Indianapolis (84% available), Week 10. They are the DST23 on the year, are on bye this week, and project to be near the bottom of the league in scoring in four of the next five weeks. However, in Week 10, they get to play a Miami offense that has made the unusual decision to only allow 10 players on the field at once. Naturally, Indy projects to be the run-away DST1 that week. You can probably safely wait at least one more week to add them, but when free points like this are out there, it might be best to get them while you can, even if it means sacrificing a WR3 or handcuff RB from your bench.

Fades
These DSTs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring:

Los Angeles Chargers (86% owned, YTD rank: DST19, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: DST29). Somehow the Chargers are still owned in six out of seven leagues, which means six out of seven leagues have an owner that holds nothing in this life sacred (or at least doesn’t properly value roster spots on their fantasy teams). Put another way, the Chargers DST should be dropped.

Trade-Away / Drop
LA Rams (90% owned, YTD rank: DST17, Projected rank Weeks 6-11: DST23), Philadelphia (80% owned, YTD rank: DST7; Projected rank Weeks 6-11: DST19). It’s tough to get much value for DSTs in trades, especially under-performing ones, but both the Rams and Eagles have name value so it could be worth trying to package them for something. Upcoming schedules for both are grim and they can be safely dropped otherwise.

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

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@Sith_Are_People_Too very informative, thank you. I’ll be referring to this

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Legit data! Thanks.

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I have New Englands DEF; in the dreaded TNF slot. WSH is available. Would u slide a bad team in place for the matchup? The Giants offense is missing some pieces

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In this case I’d stick with the better defense and play NE. The match-up is good, and as you said New York is down several pieces. In general I want to play whichever defense gets to go up against the semi-professional football operation in Miami, but New England is the one defense I’d start over them this week. Good luck!

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Thank you Sith. Good luck to you as well brother :muscle:

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