10/15, 7:15PM Central - Changed Rams DST from Drop to Hold with news that they are in process of trading for Jalen Ramsey
10/17, 7:30AM Central - Updated QB model to reflect announced changes in MIA, TEN
The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 7
Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) for the upcoming six weeks. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and the projection model it is based on here.
As a reminder, The Deep Stream model contains math-only projections based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to help assess the favorability of upcoming matchups. It is a powerful tool, but should be used in combination with all available information and context. For example, the Jets are currently allowing 14.7 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing defenses, second only to Miami’s 17.2. However, that includes giving up 35 points to the Eagles defense in Week 5 when the Jets rolled out Luke Falk, an inexperienced third-string QB who had gotten almost no practice reps that week as New York squandered nearly every moment of practice time on Darnold in hopes that his spleen would give him permission to play (it did not, spleen’s are notoriously cranky like that). All that is a long way of saying that defensive matchups against the Jets are probably being projected too high, so while the Giant’s DST may end up being a fine play against the Jets in Week 10, it is probably safe to assume the Giants will not field a top-2 DST that week as currently projected. So, use the model (please!), just use it in conjunction with your own knowledge and analysis.
All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.
A handful of QB starters may change before the week is out. Presumed starters are projected below, but I will update them throughout the week if there are any changes. (10/17 – Tennessee, Miami updated)
Here are this week’s top Deep Stream QB adds:
Josh Allen (50% available). Projected to be the QB6 over the next six weeks, including two games against Miami. Unfortunately, one of those Miami games is this week, so if he is available, you will probably have to give up some FAAB or use your waiver priority to get him.
Sam Darnold (88% available). Spleen Darnold is back and wasted no time ringing up the fantasy points. His tilt this week with the Patriots looks grim, but after that his schedule is positively delightful. He is projected to be the QB4 Weeks 8-12.
Mason Rudolph (93% available). On bye this week, Rudolph is projected to be a low-end QB1 Weeks 8-12, and has an enticing matchup with Miami upon his return on Week 8.
Daniel Jones (65% available). One-week stream . Jones’ schedule Weeks 8-12 has him teed up for fantasy disappointment, but if you need a streamer this week he projects to be the QB8 when he suits up against Arizona’s lackluster defensive unit.
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:
Jacoby Brissett (56% available), Week 10. Brissett projects to be the QB6 in Week 10 thanks to a match with, you guessed it, Miami.
Ryan Tannehill (100% available), Week 8. With no data available on performance vs. expectation available on Tannehill yet this year, based on matchup alone the model projects him to be the QB4 in Week 8 against a very beatable Tampa Bay defense. How lucky do you feel?
These QBs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring:
Baker Mayfield (71% owned, YTD rank: QB21, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: QB29). Still rostered in 71% of fantasy leagues, Mayfield should be dropped with extreme prejudice.
Jared Goff (88% owned, YTD rank: QB19, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: QB 23). If you have Goff, keep him to play this week against Atlanta’s permissive D, but be ready to part ways after that.
Three of the same trade candidates as last week (Goff has probably lost any potential trade value, despite his ownership percentage, so he was removed from the list):
Aaron Rodgers (98% owned, YTD rank: QB14, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: QB21). His performance has picked up slightly, so the window for being able to get something in a trade for him may have cracked open a bit wider.
Carson Wentz (96% owned, YTD rank: QB9, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: QB20). Wentz has continued to perform as a lower-end QB1, but the next five weeks include four tough matchups and a bye, so he may still be worth shopping to see what you can get.
Phillip Rivers (81% owned, YTD rank: QB11, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: QB22). Rivers also has been performing as a low-end QB1, and there may be some buzz with Hunter Henry returning to the lineup, so he may still draw some value on the market.
This week’s top Deep Stream TE adds:
Hunter Henry (41% available). Listing here just in case he hasn’t been picked up in your league. However, despite putting up the most points at the tight end position last week, his upcoming schedule is cause for concern, hence he is only projected as the TE12 over the next six weeks. I would think twice before breaking the FAAB bank to get him.
Dawson Knox (94% available). He is far from sexy as the projected TE16 Weeks 7-12, but Knox is widely available and his use could be on the rise in Buffalo.
Daniel Fells (97% available). It continues to be a tight-end-by-committee in Houston, but Fells seems to be the more reliable target and projects as the TE9 Weeks 7-12. Houston has been scoring enough points through the air that his counterpart, Jordan Akins (92%), is also a low-end but viable option.
Luke Willson (99% available). Add with caution . If Seattle continues to target the tight end at the same rate they did with dearly-departed Will Dissly, Willson has a chance to put up decent numbers the next few weeks and may be worth an add. It’s far from a sure thing, though, so take his TE8 projection over the next six weeks with a healthy dose of skepticism.
Greg Olsen (89% owned, YTD rank: TE10, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: TE25). It’s tough dropping a tight end that has had any productivity in the current hellscape of misery that is the tight end position, but you should temper expectations with Olsen. After a bye week this week he projects outside TE 2 territory. If your roster has space you can hang onto him in hopes that things improve when (if?) Newton returns at QB, but you should likely try to find other options for now.
This week’s top Deep Stream DST adds:
Pittsburg (72% available). You’ll have to hold them through their bye week if you pick them up now, but you will be rewarded in Week 8 with another bye week of sorts as Pittsburg plays the Miami Fishtankers. Even after that they project to be the DST6 Weeks 9-12.
New York Jets (93% available). Widely available coming off a bye, Greg Williams’ unit projects to be the DST6 Weeks 7-12. Even if you have a good DST on your roster, the Jets are worth stashing just for their game against Miami in Week 9 when, if you can believe it, they are projected to score a lot of points and be the DST1 on the week.
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:
Indianapolis (87% available), Week 10. They are the DST24 on the year and project to be near the bottom of the league in scoring in three of the next four weeks. However, in Week 10, they get to play Miami, meaning they are naturally projected to be the DST1 that week. As mentioned last week in this space, it’s rarely worth stashing defenses for multiple weeks for one matchup, especially an otherwise-bad fantasy defense. But this may be the exception.
Cleveland (69% available), Week 12. Same situation and logic as with Indy above. If you have the roster space and you like free points from your defense, Cleveland is worth stashing for Week 12. They are on bye this week and play the Patriots in Week 8, so you can probably wait two weeks before grabbing them.
Los Angeles Rams (80% owned, YTD rank: DST18, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: DST24); I had the Rams listed as a fade Tuesday morning given their lackluster performance to date and a tough upcoming schedule. Since then, however, news has broken that the Rams have traded away Marcus Peters and have traded for Jalen Ramsey. Given that, it’s worth giving Wade Phillips and crew another week or two to see if they can return their unit to an elite-level fantasy defense.
These three defenses have all performed well-outside the top-12 so far, are highly owned, and are projected to be DST24 or worse for the next six weeks. Some do have name value, so certainly try and get value for them in a package trade if possible, but otherwise they can all probably be dropped. Yes, I see that these are all teams that are or were recently thought of as having good fantasy defenses. And I also know that the Ravens just traded for Marcus Peters. You might wait one more week before acting if you think these units have a turn-around in them and you have the roster space. But their performance to date and upcoming schedules make them all worthy of drop consideration.
Los Angeles Chargers (91% owned, YTD rank: DST22, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: DST26).
Baltimore Ravens (86% owned, YTD rank: DST28, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: DST28).
Dallas Cowboys (80% owned, YTD rank: DTS23, Projected rank Weeks 7-12: DST29).
That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!