Streaming Models for Week 8 (The Deep Stream)

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Week 9 Deep Stream

The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 8

BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / OCTOBER 22, 2019

Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) for the upcoming six weeks. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and the projection model it is based on here.

As a reminder, The Deep Stream model contains math-only projections based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to help assess the favorability of upcoming matchups. It is a powerful tool, but should be used in combination with all available information and context.

Fortunately, you now have another resource to help with your analysis: The Fantasy Footballers Stream Finder. For information on how the Stream Finder can be used to aid in your analysis, see my introductory post with an overview and some examples.

All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks


Adds
Here are this week’s top Deep Stream QB adds:

Mason Rudolph (94% available). Projected to be the QB12 over the next six weeks, starting with a favorable matchup against Miami in Week 8.

Matthew Stafford (47% available). Three of his next six matchups, including the next two, have him projected to be the QB8 or higher.

Ryan Tannehill (96% available). Week 8 stream. With only one week of game data so far, rest of season prospects are not certain. But he is playing a Tampa Bay defense this week that is tied with Atlanta for the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs on the season.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

Jacoby Brissett (52% available), Week 10. Brissett projects to be the QB8 in Week 10 thanks to a match with Miami.

Drop
These QBs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but are likely poised for a drop in scoring:

Baker Mayfield (65% owned, YTD rank: QB26, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: QB29). Still somehow rostered in 65% of fantasy leagues, Mayfield does not deserve a spot on your bench.

Phillip Rivers (76% owned, YTD rank: QB16, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: QB21). Rivers is a mid-QB2 with weekly QB1 upside. In single QB leagues, he does not need to be owned. NOTE: If you have him, you can hang onto him for his Week 10 match with Oakland where he is projected to be a top-4 QB. The rest of his upcoming matches, however, are not promising.

Trade Away
Two of the same names as the last two weeks, plus a new one in the trade-away list:

Aaron Rodgers (98% owned, YTD rank: QB8, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: QB18). Rodger’s explosive six-TD day will only help his trade value. Despite that outrageous performance, the numbers still have him projected outside QB1 territory for the next six weeks, so he’s still a trade away candidate. You could opt to keep him to play against KC this week as a second good game could bolster his value a bit more.

Carson Wentz (96% owned, YTD rank: QB14, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: QB23). No longer a QB1 in points-per-game, his trade value may be all but gone. Try to find the Philly fan in your league and make a final push to move him if you can.

Kyler Murray (94% owned, YTD rank: QB10, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: QB22). Murray has put up strong numbers the last two weeks against poor defenses, but has a relatively rough stretch of games upcoming. Try to sell now, or perhaps wait until after Week 10 when he plays Tampa Bay’s 32nd-ranked defense against QBs.

Tight Ends

Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream TE adds:

Daniel Fells (78% available). Low-end TE 1 option and still mostly available, which is as much as you can ask for from the tight end waiver pool these days. Jordan Akins (93%), is clearly the less-reliable member of Houston’s tight-end-by-committee, but he’s available and has low TE 1 upside.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

O.J. Howard (43% available), Week 10. If he’s been dropped in your league, or you are still hanging onto him, he could be worth a stash for his Week 10 game against the TE-friendly Cardinals.

Drop
These TEs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but are likely poised for a drop in scoring:

Greg Olsen (81% owned, YTD rank: TE10, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: TE21). As mentioned last week, it’s tough dropping a tight end that has had any productivity, but you should temper expectations with Olsen who is projected as a low-end TE 2 over the next six weeks.

Jimmy Graham (66% owned, YTD rank TE16, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: TE22): Graham could be worth trying to trade based on recent performance. Otherwise, he should probably be dropped, even in the current barren TE landscape.

DSTs


Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream DST adds:

Pittsburg (61% available). If you didn’t grab them last week, you may have to give up some FAAB or your waiver priority to get them as the current DST4 on the year prepares to take on the ever-so-slightly-improving Dolphins.

New York Jets (91% available). Still mostly available coming off a bye, projected to be the DST9 over the next six weeks.

Carolina (53% available). Several good matchups make them the projected DST4 Weeks 8-13.

Philadelphia (55% available ) . Decent streaming option this week against Buffalo. The Eagles are also a stash candidate for Week 13. Weeks 9-12, however, include three potentially rough matches and a bye.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

New York Giants (90% available). Week 10. They are projected as a bottom-tier play in four of the next six weeks, and are on bye another, but in their match against the home-state-rival Jets in Week 10 they are projected to be the top-scoring defense of the week.

Indianapolis (87% available), Week 10. Indy’s D is 23rd on the season, but in two weeks they still project to be the DST2 in their tilt with Miami.

Cleveland (77% available), Week 12. Same situation and logic as with Indy above. If you have the roster space and you like free points from your defense, Cleveland is worth stashing for Week 12.

Trade Away
Buffalo (5% available). A rare DST that may be a good trade-away candidate, the Bills are almost 100% owned and are the DST8 on the year. However, they are projected to be the DST25 over the next six weeks, so it’s worth trying to get something in return for a unit that is otherwise a reasonable drop candidate. You can highlight their Week 11 game against Miami to any prospective buyers to try and close the deal.

Drop
These three defenses have all performed outside the top-12 so far, are highly owned, and are projected to be DST24 or worse for the next six weeks. Their performance to date and upcoming schedules make them all worthy of drop consideration.

Los Angeles Chargers (82% owned, YTD rank: DST24, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: DST28). Should not be rostered.

Baltimore Ravens (52% owned, YTD rank: DST21, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: DST26). Marcus Peters is not likely to make enough of a difference to return the Ravens D to fantasy relevance.

Dallas Cowboys (80% owned, YTD rank: DTS14, Projected rank Weeks 8-13: DST24). Can hang on until after the bye for a decent match against Buffalo in Week 9 if you have the space.

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

2 Likes

…thanks to you, I moved on a few weeks ago and avoided that train wreck

…I did. Ive been killing with NE DEF since week 2. I was really worried about losing those points on their bye. You pointed out the strategic relevance ( I live in Pittsburgh; how embarrassing :yum:) and I snapped them up.

Question for you: I stashed Herndon last week as well. I knew he wouldn’t play last night so I rolled out Fells for week 7. Now, as bad as the Jets look combined with your week 8 projection for Fells, should I wait on Herndon? Are the Spleen Jets like the Baker Brown’s: over rated?

1 Like

Jets are tough one to judge on the metrics. Assuming Herndon is full go, they should theoretically be much better than they have been. So to me it’s more of a judgement based on what you think of Herndon last year. That said, his matchups are not great in next several weeks, so take into consideration. Personally I did have him stashed but had to let him go when he hurt his hamstring. If I can get him again I’m going to and see how he does.

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Honestly, I went against my better judgement on Herndon. I haven’t liked the Jets since Wayne Chrebet, and I haven’t owned one since Thomas Jones. I hate the Jets. But I was kind of drinking the koolade in hopes of a safety valve for a young QB who’s “…seeing ghosts” Lmao, did you watch the game? You could see the terror in eyes. Hilarious.

My plan was to drop Fells after this week. But after last night I’m also going to “wait and see”

Thanks again brother!
:+1::muscle::muscle:
#FootStrong
#HireTheSith

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These weekly posts are very much appreciated, thanks Sith!

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Damn there is no one for me to pick up on Ertz week 10 bye lmao… fells was interesting but he’s on bye in week 10 also !! Take a flyer on Herndon?

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Panthers are available in my league but I already have the jets; do I pivot?

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Could probably do worse. If he’s healthy they’ll need him to help Darnold get in a rhythm after seeing ghosts last week

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Well both teams have a reletively favorable schedule. They’ve both been solid with regards to production, CAR slightly more so. They’re both kind of settling into a new rhythm. CAR sans Can, and NYJ trying to live up to the hype.

I guess it depends on how you feel about the Jets prospects moving forward. If the offense is terrible even a great DEF will bend until they snap. Allen has a intriguing matchup with SF this week

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Yes in your situation I would probably grab Herndon and hold until a better option appears.

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If you have bench space I’d prefer to have both and play the matchup. Assuming you can’t, I’d go Carolina for the steadier projected outcome.

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I find it interesting that Carolina has a steadier projected outcome, given that they play 4 better offences over the next 6 weeks whereas the jets play 4 of the worst offences the next 6 weeks

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The only thing with Herndon is that he plays the giants that week, who seem to have been good against TE according to the stream finder… idk if Herndon is matchup proof

On the other hand someone just dropped Vance McDonald and he’s got the rams; 6.7 by your deep stream projection that week which seems okay, and the last 4 weeks according to the stream finder have been their worst weeks against TE… Hmm maybe I’ll do that actually

Wow this tool is pretty cool lol

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Your logic makes sense. The difference is the model uses schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed, so if a good offense was good against poorer defenses, it could impact the projections. That said it’s close, and two of the Jets next three weeks look really good, so I wouldn’t argue if you tilted that way.

1 Like