Streaming Models for Week 9 (The Deep Stream)

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The Deep Stream Week 10 is now available.

The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 9

BY DAN KERBER / KERBERDAN89 / OCTOBER 29, 2019

Welcome back to The Deep Stream where every week I share matchup projections and recommendations for the three streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) for the upcoming six weeks. You can find a more detailed introduction to the approach and the projection model it is based on here.

As a reminder, The Deep Stream model contains math-only projections based on schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to help assess the favorability of upcoming matchups. It is a powerful tool, but should be used in combination with all available information and context.

For the first time this week we get to see projections for Week 14, the first week of the playoffs in many leagues. Because playoff matchups are starting to become especially interesting for teams with strong records, I extended this week’s Deep Stream model through Week 16 (eight weeks). Keep in mind that projections are inherently less valuable the further in the future they are, but even so, it is still a good idea to start looking ahead to plan your strategy for those all-important playoff weeks.

All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks


Adds
Here are this week’s top Deep Stream QB adds:

Gardner Minshew II (48% available). Projected to be a top-6 fantasy QB for the rest of the season, with absolutely delightful matchups in Weeks 15 & 16, grab The Magic Mustache if he happens to be available in your league still. Just monitor the news each week for any signs that the team is thinking of moving back to Foles.

Cam Newton (57% available). A healthy Newton is a weekly fantasy starter, and all indications are starting to point to his return in the coming weeks. Get him now if he’s available and you have space.

Sam Darnold (81% available). One-week stream. Despite two consecutive bad weeks, Darnold is still a good stream this week against the improving-but-not-really-by-much Miami defense.

Derek Carr (88% available). One-week stream. A good matchup this week for the recently-resurgent Carr in a game with shootout potential.

Trade Away
Two names that have been here for multiple weeks, plus one new one in the trade-away list:

Aaron Rodgers (99% owned, YTD rank: QB7, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: QB12). With two big weeks, Rodger’s is finally a QB 1 on the year and is projected to be the QB12 over the next eight weeks. With things trending up, you might decide to hang onto him. However, his trade value has never been higher, he’s still just projected to be a fringe QB1 rest of season, and his matchups in Weeks 15 & 16 are not great. Not an urgent trade, but still one to consider.

Kyler Murray (92% owned, YTD rank: QB11, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: QB26). Murray has put up two dud performances, so his trade value has taken a hit. But he is still a low-end QB1 on the year and has a tasty game coming in Week 10 against a Tampa Bay secondary that is a well-known haven for NFL pass-throwers. Possibly the last chance to get some value from him before he becomes a straight Drop.

Josh Allen (79% owned, YTD rank: 12, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: QB24). It’s a tale of two seasons for Josh Stallion over the next eight weeks. Weeks 9 to 11, Allen is projected to be the QB6, and Weeks 12 to 6 he projects to be the QB30. A strong candidate to become a Drop starting Week 12, it’s time to start shopping him and see if you can get any value, especially while he still has one game against Miami on his schedule.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

Ryan Tannehill (52% available), Weeks 14 & 15. You have time, but Tannehill currently projects to be the top-scoring QB over these two weeks.

Drop
These QBs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but are likely poised for a drop in scoring:

Baker Mayfield (61% owned, YTD rank: QB27, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: QB25). Preposterously still rostered in more than half of leagues, Mayfield is facing a three-week gauntlet where he projects to be the QB30. Baker should obviously be dropped. However, if you are one of the owners that has decided to hang onto him this long, there is clearly an emotional component to your decision-making, so at this point, you may as well hang onto him for his not-terrible projected outings in Weeks 12, 14 & 15.

Phillip Rivers (72% owned, YTD rank: QB19, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: QB19). Rivers is a mid-QB2 with weekly QB1 upside. In single QB leagues, he does not need to be owned. However, he does have two great matchups with Oakland still in Weeks 10 and 16, so if your roster permits it and you have other options for the remaining weeks, you can stash him for those weeks.

Tight Ends


Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream TE adds:

Chris Herndon IV (73% available). Adam Gase has proven he wants to throw to the tight end in this offense, and Herndon is a talented player when healthy. His starting status is still up in the air next week, but you’ll likely have to add him to your roster now if you want to get him (and you may have to pony up some FAAB).

Jason Witten (51% available). Witten is only this available because he is just returning from a bye. He projects to be a solid TE 1 rest of season, and the TE8 overall Weeks 14-16.

Daniel Fells (84% available). Low-end TE 1 option with high upside, Fells is widely available, and a good add. Jordan Akins (95% available). In the event yours is one of the leagues where Fells is taken and there are no other good options, Akins is a playable asset with low TE 1 upside.

Eric Ebron (42% available), Jack Doyle (83% available). While Ebron is ranked 13 spots higher than Doyle, that is mainly due to Ebron’s three TDs versus Doyle’s one. Their yardage is almost identical (232 vs. 210) as is their targets (30 vs. 29). Doyle has clear TE 1 upside with a decent target floor each week.

Jacob Hollister (99% available). One-week stream. For the truly desperate or the degenerate risk-takers, Hollister gets to face the legendarily-permissive Tampa Bay secondary this week.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

O.J. Howard (50% available), Week 10. If he’s been dropped in your league, or you are still hanging onto him, he could be worth a stash for his Week 10 game against the TE-friendly Cardinals.

Drop
These TEs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but are likely poised for a drop in scoring:

Greg Olsen (83% owned, YTD rank: TE11, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: TE20). A mid-TE 2 rest of year without any big plus matchups, Olsen should only be rostered in very deep leagues.

Jimmy Graham (74% owned, YTD rank TE16, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: TE23). Can be dropped except in very deep leagues.

Jared Cook (60% owned, YTD rank TE19, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: TE27). Projected near the bottom of the league for the remainder of the season despite having a plus matchup against Tampa Bay on the schedule. Roster permitting, you could hang onto him through Week 11 for the Tamp matchup, but that’s it.

DSTs


Adds
This week’s top Deep Stream DST adds:

Carolina (52% available). Two rough matchups in the next four weeks, but overall a very good schedule has Carolina projected to be the DST4 through the rest of the year.

Kansas City (79% available). Wait. What?!? That’s right, the Chiefs defense is projected to be the DST5 rest of season with a few inviting matchups along the way. Their production this season has been very boom-or-bust, though, so you may want to check for more consistent options first.

New York Jets (90% available). Projected to be the DST5 over the next six weeks, they make a solid addition to finish out the regular season. However, you MUST have alternate arrangements for Weeks 15 & 16, a two-week span where they are projected to be the DST28.

Stashes
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks:

Indianapolis (58% available), Week 10. Indy’s D is 21st on the season, but in Week 10 they project to be the DST2 in their tilt with Miami.

New York Giants (90% available). Week 10. A great bye week fill-in, they are projected to be the top scoring defense of the week in their match against the home-state-rival Jets in Week 10. They are also a good defense to stash for Weeks 15 & 16 where they are projected to be the DST4.

Cleveland (89% available), Week 12. Same situation and logic as with Indy above. If you have the roster space and you like free points from your defense, Cleveland is worth stashing for Week 12. Cleveland also makes an intriguing stream this week against Denver, who is rolling out a former sixth-round pick at QB with zero NFL starts to his name.

Green Bay (59% available), Philadelphia (59% available). Weeks 13-14. These two teams project to be the DST7 and DST10, respectively, over the remaining eight weeks of the fantasy season. In both cases, however, that is mostly on the back of two great matchups in Weeks 13 & 14 when they project to be the DST4 (GB) & DST3 (Phi).

Trade Away
Los Angeles Rams (91% owned, YTD rank: DST5, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: DST15). A rare DST that may be a strong trade-away candidate, the Rams are highly owned and are the DST5 on the year. However, they are projected to be the DST15 over the next eight weeks, so it’s worth trying to get something in return for a unit that is otherwise a reasonable drop candidate. They also have poor matchups in the playoffs, further cementing them as a team that should probably be off your roster one way or another.

Buffalo Bills (83% owned, YTD rank: DST13, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: DST26). Over the next three Weeks, the Bills project to be the DST12 and have an appealing tilt against Miami in Week 11. However, Weeks 12 through 16 they are the projected DST31, so trade them now if you can. Otherwise, they are a clear drop after Week 11.

Drop
These defenses remaining projections make them candidates to drop, including one that has been a DST 1 so far this year.

Tennessee Titans (53% owned, YTD rank: DST6, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: DST27). It’s tough to drop a top-6 unit, but Tennessee’s year-to-date ranking is inflated by a Week 1 explosion against the Browns, and their remaining schedule has them projected as a sub-DST2 rest of season.

Los Angeles Chargers (69% owned, YTD rank: DTS22, Projected rank Weeks 9-16: DST21). Should not be rostered.

That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!

3 Likes

Awesome information. Fantastic post. Wish this type of info was available for all positions. I’m in RB Hell right now and need some help!!

Keep up the good work!

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Thanks Southside. Glad you found it useful!

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It was really useful . I was thinking about dropping the Jets D until I read your post.

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LMAO!! :joy::rofl::joy::rofl::joy::rofl::joy:

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@southside_at yeah this thread is awesome. I bookmark it every week. @Sith_Are_People_Too does an amazing contribution every week. We’re starting a movement:

#HireTheSith
#FootStrong

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Hollister!

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You heard it here first, folks!
:muscle::muscle::muscle:

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I should have gone panthers over jets

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I hear you @Stos17 , I picked up the Jets in one league myself. But all the data pointed toward the Jets being the better start. Besides my model, if you look at The Ballers’ Stream Finder there was nothing in the eight weeks of results from Miami or Tennessee to make you think twice about starting your D against Miami. I know it doesn’t help when you have to eat the loss, but I think the process for going with the Jets this week was sound. I’m going to try not to hate-drop them during waivers as they might actually be a solid play next week, but have to go through the data a bit more to see first.

1 Like