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Stuck in a loop - Looking for a way to break free


#1

Howdy!

I have pick 1.2 in my standard 12-team 2 keeper league. Our keepers are the first / second round, so everyone available starts getting picked start of third round.

I have OBJ / Kamara.

Available at the top will be Cook / Hunt / Julio and (doubtful) Barkley if he does not go 1.1

I like all those guys and see a strong case for each, but also a big reason not to take each. I am leaning Cook simply because I love the upside guys, but feel odd not taking Julio or Hunt. Especially as I think Kamara is a risk already. It is sooo easy to see the upside and the downside for all these guys, but I am not seeing any tipping points, and I am definitley not risk adverse. Which I might need to be a little here?

I understand all the common arguments for one or the other, but can anyone come up with ‘not the norm’ reasons for or against these guys? I watch tape / read reports / look at stats already. I am looking for some new nuggets to shift my thought process that I might not be considering. Random / unusual stats are fine, but I am not solely a box score player. Intangibles / team situations / stuff you saw on tape / etc are important to me.

Thank you to all for reading and potentially responding!


#2

In a standard league, Cook drops behind Hunt for me. Murray takes too many goalline carries.

Question for me is between Hunt and Barkley. In a half or full PPR, it’s Barkley for me no question.

Becomes closer in standard because I think KC has a better offense/team. Hunt has no competition for goalline /redzone work from a RB perspective.

Barkley also has like no competition for goal line carries. JStew doesn’t really worry me. Just a matter of how often they get on the goalline.

It’s close but probably still barkley for me.


#3

This may be more of the common info you already have looked at but for me Julio would be the move for a few reasons.

First with Cook, since your in a standard league your much more touchdown dependent than in any type of PPR. That being said I think cooks upside is in the passing game which you wouldn’t benefit from as much. I see Murray as being a 6-8TD goal line back that just going to devalue Cook with your scoring.

Hunt would be my second choice behind Julio and if you were set on a RB he would be my go to. Chiefs just cut Char West so I see Hunts 3 down usage a solid lock going into the season. I think Hunts going to get more goal line work and TD upside than Cook due to that uptick in snaps hes most likely going to see. The issues I would be concerned with with Hunt would be how much Ware is going to be used, and how much red zone action is Sammy Watkins going to take up in the passing game.

As far as Julio goes I see his positive regression as a real factor especially in the TD department. With his already high red zone targets last year and the second year with the new OC his ceiling is sky high. I dont see any of the additions to the offense taking targets away from him and weve seen Julio in the past be a double digit TD guy. The issue with taking him in the 3rd would be RB depth and at the end of the fourth your going to be staring down a choice between Lynch, Burkhead, Ajayi, or Miller. If you’re okay with those guys as an RB2 then I think Julio would be a great ceiling play in the 3rd.

Hope this helps and good luck drafting!


#4

Thanks! I am doubtful Barkley is there, but if he is I would likely take him as this is a standard league. NYG overall team might not be as good, but I do think they use him early and often.

I am warming to Hunt over Cook, and you cite the biggest reason. That being goal line work. I can see LattyMo getting much of that heavy lifting. It might just be a slight tip toward Hunt. Admittedly, Ware has me a bit concerned as we do not know if he does to Hunt what Latty could do to Cook, but I am not sure it is as worrisome.


#5

Personally, I had Hunt ranked above cook regardless of standard or ppr. He is a stud and ware is not going to be as big of a problem as everyone thinks. Ware is a replacement level back who was a product of Reid’s system. He is not a talented back and does not pose meaningful threat to hunt. The fact that its standard just moves hunt well ahead of Cook for me.


#6

I appreciate the thoughts and insights.

Can I ask you to expand on Ware? I do not exactly remember his 2016 season, but in my mind he did not look that bad. I know I liked him better than Charmander. I know I can look at stats, but I am wondering if you could elaborate some on what you saw to think he is only replacement level? Not challenging that thought, just wondering how you got there. Thank you if you have the time to elaborate, but good info even if not.