Super Stack Idea

Now I generally am RB heavy, wait on QB. BUT I am picking at 12/13 turn. What if I take Hill & Kelce and then come back and take Maholmes at the 3/4 turn.

Now if Maholmes goes down the season is shot but I can see this lineup just obliterating people some weeks and certainly getting in the playoffs. Thoughts?

If you’re playing with 11 other people that are savvy sure. But in any other league with a few casuals, someone will certainly take Mahomes before the 3/4. I don’t agree with it, but that’s just how it plays out.

Pros- Mahomes should play Better this year, it was his first year starting and he missed a lot of deep throws due to miscommunication with WRs. Kelce gets wide open because of the other threats on the field allowing him more easy catches than any other TE in football. Tyreek is a physical freak that makes Tarik Cohen look slow and boring.
Cons-Math geeks that use formulas that Never Ever Ever predict anomalies and Always Always Always predict fairly average performances in a sport where the entire goal is to predict anomalies and phenomenal performances. These people especially The Ballers told you emphatically that Kamara Juju and Tryeek could not possibly improve from 2017 to 2018 because their mathematical model says so.

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Totally with your train of thought. Most or every analyst that predicts stat lines, especially in the offseason, will project average performances that neatly line up to the stat lines guys will end up with. But there are always ebbs and flows.

I think with your cons though, you chose three bad examples to criticize guys on. Kamara, Juju, & Tyreek were three of the most efficient players in 2017. I don’t think you can fault people for not expecting the same efficiency the next season just because it rarely happens. (Unless you’re talking about special special players which the 3 of them are)
Kamara - finished as the #3 overall RB as a rookie in '17, 80% of his games he was either an RB1 or RB2. The guy scored 13 TDs on 200 touches. He averaged 7.7 yards per touch… as a rookie. (For reference when DJ had his 2,000 yard season in '16 he averaged 5.7 ypt).
JuJu - finished as the WR22 overall in 14 games as a rookie in '17. He basically did that from week 8 on (when he had that huge game on SNF against Detroit). He only had 58 receptions. IIRC, Jason was actually really high on him coming into '18 but you’re right Andy/Mike were both iffy on if he could repeat that efficiency to be a top end WR.
Tyreek - another one you couldn’t really predict finishing were he did last year just because of how boom or bust he was in '17. This was the year where he basically went off on odd weeks & was super down on even weeks - and still finished as the WR8. Now he’s a little harder to argue on being efficient because of how up & down he was, but it’s really that he made the most of the touches he did have. Granted, they can (& probably should’ve) recognize that he’s an absolute freak athlete who no one could cover. But, in my opinion at least, you can see how some wouldn’t be all in on him he the WR#1 overall last season; adding in that KC was introducing a young/unproven (at the time) starting QB).