‹ Main Site Forums Home My Account

T. Gurley or A. Brown


#1

Drafting #1overall in our 12-team, PPR, 6pt TD (plus 100yd bonus) keeper-ish league.

We start 2 RBs, 3 WRs & a flex.

I already get to keep David Johnson & Larry Fitzgerald in place of my 3rd and 4th picks. Drafting first, I am torn between locking down the RB roster spots by adding Gurley with Johnson. However, I could lock in a safe and solid WR with Antonio Brown on the other hand.

By drafting Gurley, I would need to go WR heavy in the following rounds to get at least 3 more start-worthy WRs to add with Fitz.

Whereas if I go WR with Antonio Brown I could fill the 2nd required RB spot with a RBBC strategy hitting the position heavy in the 8th-12th rounds or someone in the Miller/Burkhead/Lynch spectrum around the 5th.

Any suggestions or other ideas are very welcomed. Thanks in advance!


#2

Wow, this is a good problem to have! I would have a hard time passing up the opportunity to pair Gurley with DJ. Even though you have to start three WRs, that RB duo is too perfect. I’d take my chances with the deeper WR group.


#3

Starting 3 WR is irrelevant.

Take Gurley. The advantage of starting 2 of the top 4 RBs is irreplaceable. Just go Gurley and then draft WR for the next 4-5 rounds.

Larry Fitz as the first WR is totally fine.


#4

Starting 3 WRs is not irrelevant. It changes the math considerably (somewhat evens out the positional scarcity).

This is actually kind if hard. I’d still go Gurley, but it’s actually pretty close.


#5

Let me expand, starting 3 WR is not relevant for this particular case. Evens out positional scarcity slightly but starting 2 of the top 4 RBs is still considerably more valuable, especially considering you are keeping Fitz already. Just need to fill out 2 more WR spots. And another flex.

If it was between Brown and Barkley for example, then maybe this comes into play for me. But Brown vs Gurley, starting 3 WR doesn’t come into play here for me.

If anything, it’s the full PPR and 100 yard games that would impact my decision more than than the 3 WR cause Brown does put up a lot of 100 yard + receiving games given volume.


#6

I have to agree with the other comments. I think the 3 WR would change later strategy, but even with that I couldn’t pass up having 2 top RB’s


#7

Agreed.

One semi-related thing I’d like to point out: it’s somewhat counter intuitive, but PPR actually increases the value of the few top end backs who are heavily involved in the passing game even more than it does a WR like Brown. Here’s why: every WR gets more valuable. That is not true of RBs. However, DJ, Bell, Gurley, Gordon, Kamara etc get even more valuable relative to other RBs.

So the point is PPR actually should have pushed you even more towards Gurley :wink:


#8

I totally agree with you there in concept for most guys but I’ve been wrestling with that concept for when it comes to AB who we’ve seen can get upwards of 160-180 targets and 130 catches per season if he plays the full 16 games. If it was AB vs DJ or AB vs Bell, then definitely that holds true cause those guys are seeing like 80-90 receptions.

But AB vs Gurley/Gordon who are in the 50-60 receptions range, I’m not as sure just cause the gap between guys like AB and all the other WRs is still pretty wide cause most guys can barely cross the 100 catches range. I should probably crunch some numbers on this one but have just been too lazy. I actually have a full PPR draft coming up to so I should probably do that in case I have to make the decision between AB and Gurley/Zeke.

Would be to happy to know your side though if you’ve crunched the numbers on this one.