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Tevin Coleman & The Other Side of Recency Bias

Originally published at: https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/tevin-coleman-the-other-side-of-recency-bias/

Usually when we discuss recency bias, it about a good performance. Examples would be Amari Cooper and Derrick Henry. Both had more bad games than good in 2018 but finished the season with multiple very strong weeks and are being drafted high on the backs of those performances. Tevin Coleman finds himself on the other…

Great article, but the one thing I don’t understand was why we are so sure that Coleman is going to bump Breida off the top of the depth chart. Breida last year was amazing both running and receiving. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry and 9.7 yards per target with an 87% catch rate. Dude was the NFLs leading rusher at one point in the middle of the season. He was a breakout do it all back who just couldn’t stay healthy. If I’m Kyle Shanahan, I know I have a special talent here but he’s a huge injury risk so I need a reliable veteran backup, even better yet one who already knows the system, and can be had a bargain basement price. That’s who Coleman is to me, the insurance policy that is almost certainly going to payoff a couple times a year. What aside from seniority suggests that he his going to just automatically walk into the RB1 role?

Agreed, I could easily see this situation not being much different than the one Coleman had in Atlanta. If the offense is as explosive as we hope it will be, Coleman will still be a good play but I don’t have high hopes of him outright replacing Breida.

I agree with your assessment!

Wait a second, doesn’t this entire article contradict what Jason was stating just yesterday on the show? It doesn’t matter the situation, or who the coaches are, but you should expect negative regression due to him changing teams? Even though he had Kyle Shanahan as his OC, two years ago and not as the head coach, should cause some concern. This is entirely different system, even if it is Shanahan’s. And if we are to expect negative regression, shouldn’t that also sway you not want to draft him, seeing how bad he was last year as the starter? Negative regression on shitty stats, is just shittier stats.

It is just my opinion that Coleman wins the job. Brieda has flashed talent but Coleman has had the better camp. As of this moment, San Fran has Brieda ahead of Coleman on their official DC, so you may be right. But even if you are, he has still proven his ability to be an RB2 in a timeshare with a far better RB. Coleman could not be safer at his current ADP