Currently the Ballers have AJ Brown ranked as the wr 17 in 1/2 ppr scoring 195.4 points. He scored 191.1 points last year and finished as the wr 15. i agree with everyone that believes his end of season pace should see some regression. but since he was very consistent at the backend of the season it helps prove he has taken a step forward.
weeks 1-10 he scored only a total of 75.9 points that stretch (7.6 a game)
weeks 12-17 he scored 115.2 (19.2 a game)
while that end of season is an unsustainable pace, in 2020 his game splits should be closer to that number compared to his stretch in the beginning of the season. just to be clear not that close. just higher than the average over the entirety of the season (11.9 a game). while he did amazing at the end, his overall 2nd season should be more productive than his 1st season. currently the ballers have him only scoring 4.1 points more than last year.
with how that offense runs, he will absolutely have some boom/bust games throught the season. with how well he did, i dont see his boom games getting much higher, i just project his bust games being higher than his lows the first 10 weeks of the season.
everyone is stating that tannehill will show some regression and isnt a great qb. in my eyes tannehill really didnt do much better than in miami. he left mr B-holes system so that is an upgrade. and he never had a weapon as good as aj brown. his comp % was slighlty higher. his yards per attempt were also higher. his yards per game has dropped. but that is because he has a better running back and defense. the only reason his QBR and and touchdown rate is so high is because of aj brown.
instead of his normal 7 yards per attempt it was 9. and since aj brown would break a tackle every single time he got the ball, he is extremely likely to break it 90 yards for a touchdown. which says a lot more about how aj could become an elite wr and why tannehills stats were “too high”
aj will get more targets this year compared to last. every reason is pointing towards that. he doesnt have to start the year with mariota. i believe mariota was the starter the first 6 games of the season and during that span aj brown was targeted only 23 times! barely less than 4 times a game. 61 times a game the last 10 of the season with tannehill. if he maintains that same pace he would only have about 13 more targets over those first 6 games but as i stated before he has taken a step forward and will command more targets. and we have seen what he can do when he has the ball. in space or not.
if i were to just rearrange this grouping around here is how i would rank this guys in 1/2 ppr
9 dj moore (hes good)
10 aj brown
11 dj chark
12 calvin ridley
13 allen robinson
14 adam thielen
15 robert woods (consistantly a high end 2)
16 cooper kupp
17 mike evans
(floor) a fair estimate would be 6 targets a game with 4 catches. it would still give him 12 more catches on the year. even if you dropped his y/r from 20.2 (which is insane) to 15 thats just shy of 1000 yards.
(fair) his end of season pace was just over 6 targets a game. if you change that to 7 targets a game and changed his catch projection from 4 to 4.5 with the same y/a that would change it to 72 receptions on the year. with 1080 yards
(realistic ceiling) 8 targets a game with 5 catches would be 80 receptions for 1200 yards.
so far he hasnt really shown to be a high volume guy. its not a high volume passing offense. he has a solid reception perception and is a tank with the ball. i wouldnt be surprised if he ended up a top 5 wr on the year. i see his floor at 20.
weeks 12-17 in 1/2 ppr he was THE wr 1. so it is in his wheelhouse. while he does seem scary to have as your wide receiver 1. i would absoluted love to have him and moore as the first 2 wide receivers off the board. but since hes going at the end of the 4th and chark is at the beginning of the 5th. that would still be an awesome combo.
sorry if i kind of jumped around at bit. im at work and i hate my job. so tell me what you think. keep me entertained.