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The Dreaded 8th Draft Slot


#1

I have done a TON of mock drafting this off-season and the spot where i struggle most is the 8th spot. Low and behold…we had our draft lottery and I landed the lucky # 8 spot. I do have the option to drop down to # 11 as that owner is looking to move up.

Would you hold on to the 8th spot or just slip down. This is a 12 man + 0.5 PPR league.


#2

What are you getting in return for moving down to 1.11?


#3

Nothing at all. Just seems like i draft better anywhere but 8-10 based on testing via mocks.


#4

I still take the 8 spot. Higher chance someone falls to you, like Hopkins, or Beckham. Don’t be afraid to take a top tier receiver over a second tier RB. Unless you can get an extra mid round pick to move down, stay put and use the UDK tier cheat sheet to get value throughout the rest of the draft.


#5

I am struggling a bit with how to effectively use the UDK Tier cheat sheets. I keep jumping back and forth between positions but was looking for more of a complete listing of players in a tier, not by position. It may be there and i just haven’t found it yet. Any insight into this?


#6

It is starting to get a little easier to manage. I did find the cheat sheet with color coded tiers.


#7

I have the 8th pick (full ppr) and Im looking at Melvin (if Saquon isnt there), then WR in 2nd, Ertz 3rd, WR in 4th (amari, tate, jarvis, DT) and finding good value on a RB in the 5th or 6th.


#8

Here’s my approach for drafting from late position. Typically, I like it more from spot 9 or after, but can make it work with 8th just fine.


#9

I guess I should use the strategy I posted lol.


#10

There should be a RB worth taking at the 1.08. Gordon or Fournette usually. I wouldn’t sweat it. Take the value. Many times a top tier receiver like Beckham will be there still, then you can grab Freeman, Cook, McCaff, on the way back through. I’m not usually going zero RB unless I’m at the 1.11/1.12 and the right receivers fall to me. Attached is a mock I did tonight at the 1.12 going zero RB. You can get an idea of what that might look like.

0RB


#11

1.11/1.12, will rarely yield you OBJ and Hopkins. More realistic scenario is something like MT/Allen if you’re going 1.12/2.01.

Expecting OBJ/hopkins is not very realistic in any competitive draft. I drafted 1.10 in my home league and got Hopkins and OBJ but that was because it was superflex.


#12

This is true. That’s why I stated to take the value. If there are no top two tier RB’s or top tier WR’s left, take the tier two WR’s in MT/Allen. It all depends on your draft.

And after the injury last year and all the RB’s going early, there are plenty of drafts where OBJ will fall to the 1.11/1.12. Unless you’re in a league with all footclan members.

PS> The sleeper app might be a little more competitive for mocking than the general populous over on espn.


#13

Doesn’t have to be footclan. No one in my leagues use footclan but it’s competitive. No competitive leagues will let OBJ fall that far which is what I said. Cause at that point, you’d need a draft where all of Fournette, Hunt and Cook going above OBJ.


#14

Fantasy Pros ADP
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php

  1. Bell
  2. Gurley
  3. Zeke
  4. DJ
  5. AB
  6. Kamara
  7. Barkley
  8. Hopkins
  9. Gordon
  10. Fournette
  11. Hunt
  12. OBJ <--------------------- :thinking:

Sleeper App ADP for OBJ… 12.1

Fantasy Football Calculator
https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/half-ppr
OBJ… Pick no…12! ADP @ 11.8.

Again, based on statistics, not opinion, there WILL be many leagues, competitive or not, where OBJ falls to the 1.12 spot.

Sorry, I’m not trying to be a butt, but i like numbers. They don’t lie. And there will be many competitive leagues where guys will take the guaranteed volume of Fournette and the chance on what hunt can be over OBJ in a not so great offense that is quickly ending up with more skilled mouths to feed. Not that I agree with that narrative, but some will.


#15

We have different definitions for what competitive means if you are quoting me ADP from fantasy pros.

Guys in all my live/home leagues do their own research, watch the game, and are well aware of all the resources out there. Footclan isn’t the only one just FYI. And I don’t know a single ranking that has OBJ at 1.12.


#16

A very small percentage of people playing fantasy do a lot their own research, watch all the games, and form their own rankings. So competitive is a relative term. You can be competitive without spending hours of time doing all that.

Alight, at this point I agree to disagree. At least hopefully we’ve convinced @ykr919 to not move down to the 1.11 spot. Lol. I feel we are destined to do this forever, you and me. Looking forward to it!


#17

You don’t have to watch all the games, or do your own rankings, to know OBJ should be going above 1.12. Just simply googling “Fantasy Football Rankings” will yield you all your results that has OBJ going by at least pick 1.10. Literally takes 5 seconds. If you have league mates who can’t even do that, then I don’t view it as competitive. But you’re totally right in that its relative. To me, its not. If it is to you, then that is also fine.

End of the day, all this shows is know your league mates. Do your league mates do the bare minimum at least or just not read anything and fire from the hip?


#18

Oh come on, i was trying… :wink:
Alright, one more. You realize that Google is where i went to get all the stats I just dropped right? Now these were half PPR ADP’s. Full PPR he is going 1.9-1.11. But hey, lets focus on what we can agree on. OBJ SHOULD be taken before the 1.11 if you’re serious about playing.

Anyway, I play in a work league and a league with some friends and relatives. No they are not as “competitive” as I am, but I like playing with people I know, and we have fun with it. And some put in some time, others don’t. Work league is what it is, but with the home league the plan is to slowly weed those people out and find some more “competitive” players.


#19

Again, ADP vs ECR are 2 very different things. If you don’t know the difference, I can’t help you. If you’re in a league that doesn’t know the difference, it’s not that competitive in my eyes. And there’s nothing wrong with that. Last year, i was in a league that wasn’t competitive. But I took over as commish and shared every resource that I use myself (footclan, fantasypros, rotoworld, twitter accounts to follow, etc.). Personally find it more fun that way. All I said was in competitive leagues, OBJ falling to 12 and hopkins falling to the 2nd round is not very realistic and not something I would bank on.

You can quote me all the ADPs you want based on average yahoo/ESPN mock drafts you want but end of the day, that’s not what I use to benchmark whether or not a league is competitive.


#20

Okay, so this conversation started about where a player is BEING taken in drafts, not where the experts say he SHOULD go in drafts. Therefore we reference ADP to see where people are taking him. ECR is a non factor when it comes to referencing where people are ACTUALLY going in drafts. I feel some wires got crossed there. And I know the stupid ESPN mock is unrealistic and probably a bad example, but the point was to show that you can get a quality team by taking receivers early and not feel like you HAVE to take a lower tier RB in the first two rounds. A strategy which includes comparing ADP to ECR to get the greatest value for where you are drafting.

Oh, and in case you missed it, non of the ADP’s I referenced were from ESPN or Yahoo.

Seriously, WE AGREE ABOUT WHERE OBJ SHOULD BE TAKEN!! But if you can’t agree that there will be some leagues, “competitive” and not, where he will fall to the 1.11/1.12, then we are done here. That’s the only point I’ve been trying to make this whole time.

And just so we’re on the same page as to what competitive is: people who play fantasy football seriously, do research, play to win, that don’t necessarily all have the same opinion, and that have fun doing it!