The Joe Mixon argument?

Can someone give me the argument for drafting Joe Mixon? It feels like taking the RB on a team with as bad a record as the bengals had last year in the first round is a waist of a early pick. Is the prediction solely based on his usage at the end of last season when they had given up hope of making the playoffs, or is it based on the thought that Joe Burro will be that good that he will surge this offence forward? Or I guess AJ Green coming back forcing the safeties back letting mixon break out more long runs? I’m just not sure he’s worth a first round pick.

The argument for any RB to be a first round pick would require:

  • opportunity
  • talent

2019 Bengals RB Snaps:

2018 Bengals RB Snaps:

Using Bengals rushing stats over the last 3 years he could be projected for 224 attempts in 2020.

60% of average rush attempts over last three years
2019 CIN total team rush attempts = 385
2018 CIN total team rush attempts = 359
2017 CIN total team rush attempts = 377

Joe Mixon has clear opportunity.

Joe Mixon career stats:

Searching for players, over the last two years, with the following criteria:
>= 224 rush attempts
>= 30 receptions
>= 5 rushing TD
>= 2 receiving TD

Joe Mixon is clearly talented and in elite company.

This all while being on a subjectively bad team. If the team is better in 2020 (no a lock) than Mixon could be projected to exceed his previous expectation.