Who has the better fantasy production. Standard and/or ppr.
(taking into account both are healthy 16 games)
Diggs. On a points per game basis which in my eyes, counts for more assuming he plays at least 12 games.
EDIT: To be clear, I’d rather have Diggs on my team than Thielen. He’s worth more and will win more for you. I’d take diggs regardless of format.
Posted about this before but see below for why last year was his ceiling and I think it will be tough for him to repeat even that level of production, nevermind improve:
Basically it comes down to the fact that I think last year was his ceiling and that is currently where he is being valued. I don’t think that is repeatable which comes down to the following key factors:
- Thielen had over 140 targets last year and he still only finished as WR12 in half PPR. This was a product of Shurmur’s offensive play calling. He loves slot receivers, a reason why I actually think Sheperd is very undervalued currently, but that’s for another time. Thielen from a talent perspective, is good not great imo. He’s a decent route runner but nothing really jumps off the page for me. It came down to how he was being used and Shurmur is now gone, so I view that as hard to repeat.
- He is absolutely awful in the red zone. With his targets going down, the only way I see for him to make up for that would be to get more TDs but that’s not going to happen. I am not exaggerating when I say, he was absolute atrocious in the red zone. Of 17 targets within 20, he caught 5, converting 2 into TDs. Less than 30% conversion coming in behind Kendall Wright. Within 10 yards, he caught 1 of 8 for a pathetic 12% conversion. Cousins is someone who is going to find the right guys in the red zone. It showed last year when he found Grant frequently in the redzone as he was one of the better contested catch guys in the league. Now compare that to Diggs who caught 11 of 13 for a league best 85%. Diggs is by far and away the better contested catch WR and from a talent perspective, it’s not even close. I expect More of those targets to shift from Thielen to the much more efficient Diggs, severly limiting Thielen’s TD upside.
- They changed the QB. Last year, you had Keenum who contrary to popular belief, is a mediocre QB. Watching this guy consistently miss or not even attempt to target diggs down field after Diggs just beat the breaks of CBs was one of the most frustrating things I’ve had to endure, second only to watching Haley call red zone plays for the steelers for the last few years. If you have Game Pass, strongly recommend you go check out the routes Diggs ran and how often, Keenum failed to get him the ball. You now have cousins, who is just better than Keenum in every single way as a QB and actually has the balls and ability to push the ball down field as shown by his years of productivity with Jackson. Not going to just be looking for the short/intermediate zone pass off to Thielen that Keenum basically looked for every single pass. Cousins has the ability to make the 1st read (Diggs), look off the safety to Thielen, then go back to Diggs to actually make the higher risk, but higher reward downfield play. Again, another factor that sways it in favor of Diggs for me.
As far as I’m concerned, these two receivers are trending in opposite directions, and I am pitching my tent on the side of Diggs. I’ll die on this hill if I have to but it’s honestly one of the most comfortable bets I’ve been making this entire off season.