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Things I may be right about - Week 1 Post Mortem


#1

So I did a “Things I was wrong about” thread to go through all of my off-season theories and which ones I was totally off about:

Starting a similar one now except make this about things I may be right about. Now it’s only week 1 so can’t overreact to anything here but what I wanted to discuss here is not results driven. I’m trying to highlight trends I see that I think will persist which gives my predictions my basis. As always, welcome the feedback, disagreements, and hear about whatever bets you made in the off season that are now paying off.

  1. ROJO does not translate to the NFL - This was one I felt pretty strongly about all off season. The opportunity was great, and he can definitely still produce but I can’t recall a worse start for a highly touted rookie RB. I didn’t buy into him in the off season because I don’t think his skill set translates to the NFL. He is a one cut runner that takes what is given but can’t create on his own, lacks vision, isn’t really that elusive, goes down on first contact, and most importantly, cannot catch passes. The last one being the one that made me stay away from him the most. Now to his credit, the buccs o line was awful and did him no favors. He got met behind the LOS on average which is horrible. But his skill set doesn’t lend him to getting out of those situations. He’s not Barkley. From an opportunity perspective, he had everything go in his favor (high draft pick, not much competition, etc) but wasn’t able to make anything of it. This bet paid off for me so far cause I drafted a lot of Barber banking on this bust so now it’s time to make a return on that investment. Would recommend you do the same cause that team still isn’t any good despite this past weekend performance and I don’t like owning RBs on bad teams.

  2. Fade DT, buy Sanders > STUD - This was one of my most common arbitrage draft moves leading up to the season. Based entirely on the fact that Keenum is not that good of a QB in my eyes. He relies heavily on the slot and really fails when trying to throw outside the numbers. Sanders has been moved primarily into the slot role with DT/Sutton taking the wide out positions and I view him as this years Adam Thielen. And TBH, I think Sanders is more talented than Thielen is. May be hard to buy Sanders now after he blew up, but I am still trying to buy him. I think he has sneaky low-end WR1 upside.

  3. Fade Cohen / Buy Howard > STUD - Lots of people faded Howard after last year because the narrative is that he has bricks for hands. However, let’s not forget he was totally nerfed by one of the most incompetent coaches in the league in John Fox. He is by no means an elite pass catcher but he is definitely capable. In the packers game, he was on the field for 80% and the snaps, had the majority of the carries and ran more routes than Cohen catching 5/5 targets. Nagy has said in the off season that Howard is in fact a 3 down back and will be involved on 3rd downs. This was on display vs packers. His floor, is now much higher than people had thought given passing down work and his ceiling is about as high as some of the more elite RBs in the 2nd tier. Double digit TD upside is definitely there. I faded Cohen all off season because I didn’t buy into the hype at all. Lot of noise about how he is the new Tyreek in Nagy’s offense but these two players are nowhere near comparable. Hill is an absolute freak athlete and now, elite WR. Cohen, is and always will be nothing more than a scat back. And now that Howard is involved on 3rd downs, I want no part of Cohen. I’d sell him now if you can, there’s plenty of waiver wire additions I’d rather have over Cohen. Lindsay being one of them. Bottom line? Jordan Howard is a work horse buy him now. And you can probably still get him for value given he didn’t score any TDs / blow up. But trust me, the blow-up is coming.

  4. Michael Thomas is a STUD - I tried to buy up all the MT I could, especially in Dynasty format but I didn’t get nearly enough considering where he was going. Frequently going at picks 11/12 and sometimes even falling to the 2nd round. He was my 4th ranked WR after OBJ/Hopkins/AB for most of the off season in both Dynasty and Redraft. Only one I considered taking above him is JJ in redraft. lucky I got him a couple of my main leagues. He is the perfect prototype for a true WR1 build but runs routes like a Keenan Allen. The only reason why he wasn’t being drafted higher was cause his TDs was low but I fully expected reversion to mean for both him and Brees on that front. His Twitter handle is a very accurate description of him as a play #CantGuardMike. I get the risk here is that Brees won’t be around forever, but I am convinced he is on the level of OBJ and Hopkins and will be capable of performing regardless of QB. I think that next year, MT will be a top 8 dynasty start-up pick and a 1st round WR pick. Buy now if you still can. His week 1 stat line although ridiculous, should’ve been even better. A call was blown dead for no reason where he basically did a catch and run for 60 yard TD. 16 for 17 for 180 and TD is already elite but really should have been 17 for 18 for 240 yards and 2 TDs. I get it, the Buccs secondary suck and their team is bad bla bla bla. But end of the day, he’s still in the NFL and there are very few receivers you can give those targets to who would come out with that level of production. I don’t expect that production every week but he has completely alleviated my concerns about target volume, and his ceiling which is clearly as high as any WR in the league. Buy MT everywhere. OBJ/Hopkins/MT will be in the debate for best receivers of the post JJ/AB/Megatron/AJ green discussion. He is the cheapest of the 3, value shot up after last week but it’s still not high enough imo.

  5. OBJ is the best offensive football player in the NFL - I am probably the resident OBJ fan on these forums and have pushed him all offseason as the undisputed 1.01 in dynasty. I put my money where my mouth was and take him in every single league where he was available to me. As a result, I have like 60% OBJ ownership. I also took him a tonne in redrafts given my zero-RB drafting approach this off season. Coming into this game, there was all these stories and hype about Ramsay vs OBJ. The best vs best. What did OBJ do? Put up 11 of 15 for 111 yards. What’s not in that stat line? Manning missed him twice on 2 long TD passes. OBJ beat the breaks off the best defense in the NFL. He is now in contention for the WR1 in fantasy in my eyes. I could only imagine what he would do with a QB who doesn’t suck as much as Eli. I concede I was totally wrong about Eli. Watching the games now, he is way past serviceable. IMO, Giants are going to regret taking Barkley over Darnold for the next 10 years. I’m not saying Barkley isn’t a stud but you don’t need an elite RB to win, but you do need a good QB. Huge mistake. Anyways, that’s not relevant for Fantasy but I am an OBJ fan for life. The dude is just a magician. When it’s all said and done, he might be the best WR of this generation. I’m so glad I own so many shares of OBJ.

  6. Joe Mixon is a STUD - The only limiting factor on Mixon, has and always will be Marvin Lewis. Looks like they finally took off the ankle weights and let the talent shine. Mixon’s talent has always been undeniable to me and thought he would taking a big step forward this year. Being an idiot, Mixon was actually my top ranked RB prospect coming out of college, yes I had him above Zeke. I was wrong about that but gives you a sense for how much I believed in him as a RB. Sucks he landed in Cinci. My only limiting factor is the situation and Marvins Lewis. Now, it’s still early and only week 1 but what gives me confidence is his usage. He was in on 75% of snaps and more importantly, out targeted Bernard. Mixon is, and always has been a better pass catcher than Bernard. In fact, I’d say he is one of the best pass catching backs in the league, exceeded only be Kamara/DJ/Bell. Thankfully, Bengals are finally realizing it and using him as such. Going to be hard to buy mixon though, especially after this week so not much actionable path forward here.

  7. Fade Henry, Buy Lewis - Another arbitrage favorite of mine this off season. One of my predictions was that Lewis would out produce Henry by years end. I faded Henry everywhere and own zero shares of him. Was just shocking to me his ADP was at where it was after they brought in Lewis who is a superior rb in all aspects of the game. Lewis is a better between the tackles runner (despite his size), is more elusive (forced a missed tackle on half his carries this week) and is a superior pass catcher. Lewis is a 3 down back, Henry isn’t. Henry, just is not a very good RB. Sure he’s big and incredibly fast for his size but he is not a good runner. He goes down on first contact and is not at all elusive or strong for his size. Also, he’s absolutely horrible in pass pro. Which is shocking despite his size. A testament to size isn’t everything. And I don’t think this is an over reaction to this week. Miami’s run D is horrible. The game was never out of reach, despite all of that, the team chose to lean on Lewis. Lewis also out touched Henry in the red zone / goal line which was basically the only thing Henry had going for him.

Honorable Mention - Jerick McKinnon - I’ve seen some people on twitter and what not taking credit for fading McKinnon. To me, that is honestly the most stupid thing ever. You can’t take credit for your take on a player due to injury. I lucked out because as some of you may have seen, I am the resident McKinnon hater. As a result, I own zero shares of him. But I can’t really say at all if I’m right about him and we might never know who was right on wrong. I think there’s a strong likelihood he never plays a down for Shanny. I think they cut ties next off season and sign one of the FA RBs (potentially Coleman). But if that doesn’t happen, I’ll be back on here trying to save people from the McKinnon Hype. Looking forward to that.


Things I was wrong about - Week 1 Post Mortem
#2

I really enjoyed reading this