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Things I was wrong about - Week 1 Post Mortem


#1

It’s a beautiful thing to have football back. This is when we all get to see our own theories play out and see the real meaning behind depth charts. Fantasy football is one of the most exciting but least predictive things ever. Having been on twitter, the number of “I told you so” tweets is always amazing to see. Having said that, here is what I was totally wrong about in my analysis and predictions. Share yours, comment on mine and why it was stupid, etc. Love to hear what others thought.

  1. Tyreek Hill is good at football - Now I wasn’t one that actually said Tyreek hill was bad by any means, but I was someone who thought that Watkins would eat into his target share and impact his production. I pulled back on that thought after pre-season but the jitters of whether or not he could hold his efficiency held me back from drafting him at his ADP in most leagues. Looks like I am now paying the price. This was also the one prediction where I was the most scared about being wrong about all off season. Watkins is a non-factor, disappointing as a true Watkins fan but that’s the reality.

  2. James Conner is a STUD - I’ve been on these forums past couple of days telling people to cool their jets a bit with the Conner hype, especially against a stout Browns Run D. Conner put all those concerns to bed. This dude is a beast and Steelers clearly aren’t afraid to use him as he garnered over 30 touches and played 92% of the offensive snaps. Bell level of volume. I will say that weather, Ben being awful and the fact that the org/oline were out here to prove something to Bell may have something to do with that volume but the talent in undeniable. I was particularly shocked at how good he was catching passes out of the backfield. He’s not Bell but that one handed catch was awesome.

  3. Mike Evans is still a STUD - I’ve always said he’s a stud but I own zero shares of Evans because I felt that he was primarily a volume receiver and given the inflow of talent (Godwin/Howard/DJax), he would not reach anywhere near his previous production. Also, I felt he was easily erased by elite corner shadow coverage in the league. Clearly, that is not the case. Despite seeing Lattimore in shadow yesterday, he torched him a on multiple plays as Fitz lit up the entire saints D. Now do I think that Fitz will play that good every week or do I expect the buccs to put up 50 points a week? Of course not. But whatever Evan’s has been doing in the offseason, seems to be paying off a bit as he is definitely playing much better as a complete receiver, instead of just relying on his size / volume to produce. His ceiling in any given week is as high as any of of the elite tier of receivers and anyone who drafted him in the 3rd/4th round should be seeing a good return on their investment.

  4. Falcons are the same falcons from last year - I made a lot of bets that Falcons would revert to the mean and drastically improve in its 2nd year with Sark, similar to how they improved in the 2nd year with Shannahan. I was clearly wrong. Sark is one of the worst red zone offensive play callers I’ve ever seen. Rivals Todd Haley. Sark needs to go and as long as he and Quinn are the pair to lead this team, I am going to tamper my expectations of any falcons players. I still want all the shares of JJ I can get but everyone else on the offense, I’m probably going to fade. Most of all, Matt Ryan who was a frequent late round target of mine.

  5. DJ is severely handicapped by coaching and a horrible team - I have been one of the biggest DJ supporters the entire off season. I think he is one of the best talents in the NFL and one of the most complete backs in the NFL, second only to Bell. However, I did not account for how bad Wilks and McCoy are as a coaching duo. They have completely nerfed this offense and are failing miserably at using DJ to his max potential. DJ’s value as a fantasy player was always the receiving threat, which protected him even with a bad team. With Arians, DJ took over 30%, or roughly 1/3 of his snaps from the slot/WR, where he was graded as one of the most efficient receivers in the 2016 season and where he does most of his damage. With McCoy and Wilks, he took under 15% of his snaps from the slot/WR positions. As we all know, a target is worth 2.75x a carry in fantasy. So that is a drastic drop in production for his outlook. I’m not jumping off the DJ train just yet, but in my experience, most coaches are stubborn and aren’t quick to adapt. Especially ones trapped in their old ways like McCoy. With him at the helm, I am tempering my expectations for DJ this season. That 1K rushing + 1K receiving mark seems much harder to reach as of now.

Share how your own predictions played out so far this week!


Who would y’all trade for Brandin cooks?
#2

I am also feeling some of these same pains today. Virtually zero Tyreek Hill/Kamara/James Conner shares and a lot of Watkins/Baldwin/Trey Burton/Royce/Kerryon shares has me sick to my stomach. How was the Leveon situation not mentioned more before draft season?


#3

tyreek is one i have to move my needle on now. i still think sammy is a solid WR and will produce in that offense, but god damn its hard to argue with tyreek supporters now. which, as a chiefs fan im ok with being wrong here. i have had to push hill forward a little in my rankings, and moved watkins down a bit. nothing drastic yet, it is still only week 1.

i will have a little i told you so on connor, i remember in one post us talking cook over connor and you said it was idiotic to even consider or something like that. but youre right, that is where the unpredictability of football comes in, cause i didnt think he would do THAT good. but i would like to point to that from now on when ever you are saying something is impossible, something that you do a lot.

DJ is another one i get to pat myself on the back for, at least so far. i never hated DJ, but i always thought he had the most struggle bus coming to him of the top elite RBs. just too much shit to wade through for him. i will say, i dont expect him to only get 9 rushes every week. he will bounce back for sure.

i do have to eat a week 1 bullet for joe mixon. i have not thought he would be good at all, but only because of how much they use him. if they keep on useing him like this, he will be way better than i thought. i will say that i kind of still have an out, because i said i think he will have good games that will win you weeks, buuut that overall he wouldnt do great. that part is still TBD, but good for mixon for proving me wrong week 1.

i cant think of any others right now, but it has been a VERY interesting start to the season so far! here is to more egg on our faces for weeks to come!


#4

Denver backfield is a mess for fantasy but they rushed for nearly 150 yards. That’s unfortunate for Freeman owners or anyone trying to predict how carry shares will end up week to week. I was expecting a big performance from Freeman and the potential proved to be there but was basically split in two with a second back, just like last year with CJ and Booker. I should have known better.

I too have Baldwin, Watkins, Royce on many of my main teams. It’s just been a week so nobody tilt yet. You have time to make it better. Hill, Kamara, Conner won’t do what they did yesterday every week.


#5

I think everyone just assumed, there’s no way this man would be willing to give up $1M / week while playing the game he loves with his god given talent. Also, we saw the exact same situation play out last year and he showed up. ANd when Bell is on the field, he is the best fantasy asset to own imo. As a result, I myself did not pay close enough attention to conner in the pre season. I wasted my draft picks on other high upside backups like John Kelly and Chase Edmonds assuming Bell would show. That was my mistake. I will now go back to the film room and really watch him run.

Fair enough on this one. Unfortunately, I am passionate about football and that is just how I speak in normal life. I don’t really filter on here, you just get the raw message as it comes to me as if I were speaking IRL. I just assume that its a given that anything I say is obviously my own opinion and can always be wrong. Which Is someone I saw a lot on the forums as well. Recognizing that ANYTHING is possible of course but when I make comments, the implicit nature of it is that it is extremely unlikely. I would still much rather own Cook to Conner by a wide margin today. Hindsight is 20/20, but I think my analysis holds on Cooks. He looked, phenomenal in his cuts and was a stud catching passes as per usual. I will concede however, I need to watch more tape on Conner. I ignored him too much this off season and will go ahead and eat Crow for my mistake there!

Totally with you on this one. You were 100% right about seattle run D so I’m going to go right ahead and eat crow for that one as well. I’m starting any RB against them without fear. Bobby Wagner is a 1 man show out there and their D line is an absolute joke. In terms of usage though ,that was my #1 worry. It was never he talent in Freeman. I believed in that, but I have no faith in Vance to do the right thing. And with Lindsay performing how he did, I don’t see that changing much going forward. Freeman/Lindsay both had ~35% of the team snaps, not encouraging for anyone relying on either to start going forward. Freeman feels like a TD or bust guy at least for now, especially since he had 0% involvement in passing game. Not the type of floor you want from your starters.


#6

I think now we’re at the point where everyone is still assuming he’s going to come back and when he does, he returns to that same level of asset. I’m not so sure. It seems like him coming back is a long-shot now. And even if he does, could he even get back in the good graces of the organization or even his teammates? Makes me so mad that there was a stud to be had in Conner at an amazing price and we missed it. :hot_face:


#7

They gave up over 100 yards on the ground last year as well. Thomas walking in off the street and no KJ Wright only added to me thinking they are going to need some time to get things together in Seattle and even then it still might be weekly shootouts. Unfortunately, my thinking that led to me buying in on Baldwin on a good number of teams too.

Also, Lindsay is very small. If he keeps getting 15 carries a week he won’t last long in NFL ball. He’s not getting goal line work if I had to guess so this is almost a true 50-50 share with Booker not really being involved offensively on the stat line. He seemed to come in on passing downs and mostly for pass protection, which makes sense with two rookies in the backfield.

I can’t really add anything else.


#8

If Bell returns, in my eyes he is still one of if not the top asset in fantasy. As good as Conner was yesterday, we still have to remember it was one game. A “prove it game” where the Oline, the org, conner and everyone had every reason to prove it and try and show up Lev Bell. Bell if still by far and away the superior talent. Maybe I eat crow for that 1 year or 2 from now but I stand by that statement. If he comes back, sure there may be some rifts in the locker room but end of the day, steelers will play whoever is best and gives them the best chance to win. And from that perspective, I think its Bell. The one aspect we didn’t really talk about is Bell in pass pro. He has always been one of the best, if not the best pass pro backs in the league. I think yesterday we saw a bit of that change with conner. Some of it was Ben being horrible, but some of it was conner missing on pass pro. Maybe Bell comes back and it isn’t the 90%+ usage he typically gets, maybe its like 80/20 or even 70/30. Even with those numbers, I’d still loving Bell as my guy cause maybe efficiency also goes up to make up for it.

I will say this though, if I was someone drafting today and I took Bell with a top 4 pick, I’d be willing to take Conner in the 4th round to secure that top pick.


#9

that makes sense. i do the same thing from time to time, i just try to keep dialogs more open to the impossible because nothing is really impossible, just improbable. i was more just trying to point out that your shut down, we shouldnt even be talking about this stance on some things can get in the way of taking advantage of conners useage or someone elses. reading back on that it kind of sounds like im being a dick but im not meaning to. just wanted to point it out because i see people laugh things off far too often and then get stunned when it does.


#10

For sure. I didn’t take any of it offensively. My no filter approach just leads me to jump the gun a lot of times. But that’s the best part about football. It is the most unpredictable sport there is.

Everything can change in a flash. One minute, you just signed a young promising QB with AFC title and Superbowl aspirations, next second you traded away a generational talent and your best player who is single handed destroying a game for someone else (looking at you Gruden and the idiots over in Oakland).

I can, and will be wrong plenty across these forums sharing my opinion. Hopefully people reading this will know that going forward, if I fail to contain myself, to me impossible = improbable when it comes to this beautiful game we all love :wink:


#11

Just remembered one more thing I was wrong about:

  1. Dallas needs help at WR, BADLY - I didn’t think that receiving core was good by any means, but i didn’t think the drop off from Dez leaving would be this bad. Watching the game, it literally looked like they had a bunch of replacement level players out there. At one point, I remember Beasley and Thompson running into eachother on the side lines during a scramble drill. Then watched Gallup run his assigned route and just throw his arms up and give up when beaten/covered by the CB instead of working back to Dak. With the Oline struggling and looking like an average line at best tbh, this team needs help, desperately. They literally don’t even have a single receiving weapon that I would even consider to be a competent pass catcher, never mind fantasy relevant. When your leading receiver and top pass catcher is cole beasley, it’s a problem. Not sure how they really fix this, but they need to or Dallas fans are in for a long season. Only saving grace is that Defense looks really, really good.

#12

I thought Royce Freeman was this years Kareem Hunt, so much that I took Freeman in the 3rd round. I instantly regreted not taking Hill and waiting for Freeman to fall into the 4th. Now I’m sad.


#13

people often forget that kareem had an insane start to his season. historic start. and that an RB going 15 for 71 in his first pro game ever, is pretty damn good. we have been spoiled with fantastic rookie RBs. freeman has always been a guy that needed time to take over fully. i wouldnt hit that panic button yet on freeman. he still got plenty of useage considering its his first game in an RBC. 3rd round does hurt though, cause thats someone you need to start now.


#14

Things I was right about:

  • Seals Jones getting good targets (6), including an end zone dropped pass.
  • Benjamin getting good targets, including an end zone dropped pass.
  • I’m in a 4 keeper standard league, and my keepers of M. Thomas, Tyreek Hill, K. Allen, and J. Howard blew my opponent outta the water.
  • I thought Conner would do well, just like D. Williams did well in the past.

Things I was wrong about:

  • DJ Moore would get at least a few targets for Cam Newton. Thinking about dropping him for Kirk or Sutton.
  • The Cardinals’ run defense would not get completely owned. (Hint: They did!)
  • Shady McCoy getting some kind of decent numbers this week.
  • I thought the Buccos would get blown out.
  • I thought Pat Mahomes would have some jitters. Looks like he was just fine. Tough schedule ahead though! (I like him a lot, but was scared off by the tough schedule.)

#15

This. People need to stop labeling every decent prospect as the “next Hunt” or the “next Kamara”. Kamara, is like once in a decade type player. Hunt, was an incredible talent who probably even outperformed him talent last year and walked into a 90% lead back role. Those aren’t just falling out of trees. Let’s stop setting ourselves up for disappointment. Injuries to this class have severely tempered my expectations of the class. Going in, I had Michel/Guice as the two studs and Kerryon a potential dark horse. Now with the top 2 guys gone, I’m not going to just automatically roll down to the next guy and assume they will be a stud as well.

How do you feel about his usage? That team looks like a full blown RBBC (no one got more than 40% of snaps) and not sure it changes anytime soon, especially with Lindsay showing up as well as he is. Clearly was a coaching favorite coming out of camp. I’m not breaking the bank on Lindsay yet but I had to go back and look at college and he’s actually pretty productive and a really good pass catcher. Freeman getting absolutely zero looks on 3rd down / pass catching work has me slightly worried. Does that worry you?


#16

Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham.

Have them both in one of my leagues. I was slightly anxious going into the season about whether the Giants offense could support two high level fantasy pieces to the degree that Pittsburgh does, given the draft capital required to grab either of them. Given the matchup they had this week against arguably the best defense in football, I was really comfortable with Saquon’s production, and Odell has CLEARLY not lost a step. I’m really excited to see what kind of production I will get from them from defenses that aren’t quite as stingy going forward.


#17

That’s interesting. I didn’t really have any doubts about both of them performing, I just don’t like starting WR/RBs from the same team cause it caps the upside and increases the variance if the team doesn’t end up performing. Having said that, I use that as more of a tie breaker between players of equal skill. Given I have saquon and OBJ both in my top 8, I would be more than happy to have them on my team. Not sure how you got both on your team but enjoy the ride.


#18

im utterly confused by the usage. because did anyone expect this UFA to come in and get 15 carries and, i think it was 4 receptions? either way, did anyone hear a peep about this guy that wasnt a broncos fan? i mean, its just crazy. if its an RBBC between the 2, i think royce wins out sooner or later to get that 65% useage and he will be fine. but thats such a strange thing to do. to name freeman the starter, just to bamboozle everyone with lindsay. i mean good for the kid but i dont expect that to happen all the time. but there is of course the feeling of doubt and dread that is creeping in, because what if what if what if. either way, if freeman keeps on getting used like he was, everyone will still be fine. week 1 he is on pace for 240 carries and 1136 yards. he just needed some catches to make you feel better about it.


#19

I too, was very shocked that he got equivalent usage as Freeman. And it wasn’t even really like oh we’re ahead, so let’s see what this guy can do. They were basically splitting throughout in a very close and tough game. Which shows they really believe in the guy. I was shocked. I actually have been following him and own quite a bit of him given my involvement in dynasty leagues, but it was a pure dart throw. Not going to sit here and pretend like I evaluated him as a prospect and viewed him as a starter.

Definitely see that. I’m just more so worried about his floor if he’s like a lets say, 4-5 TD guy. Which is a realistic outcome. And whether or not they ever let him get involved in the passing game. Watching his college tape, he is a more than adept pass catcher, so kind of puzzling to me they aren’t using him. Maybe Lindsay is just that much better but I haven’t seen enough tape to know.


#20

My eye-opening experiences from yesterday:

  1. Mahomes looks like he will skip the rookie learning curve for QBs. Yes, it’s true that DCs now have more film on him to study/scheme-for but the kid is just insulated by having so much innate talent and talent around him. I thought he was severely over-hyped before the season but I’m a believer now.

  2. Right up until Saturday night, I was trying (unsuccessfully) to trade Joe Mixon for a top-10 WR because of my concerns with the Bengals o-line. I knew Mixon would fair well against the Colts defense, he’d put up a nice stat line, then I’d sell high. But Mixon looked absolutely electric and aside from this Thursday’s game against the Ravens, his schedule is very favorable. He’s locked on my roster now.

  3. Kamara. I never believed he was a top-6 pick and that his efficiency from last year was sustainable. Looks like he is indeed a generational talent.

  4. Dalvin Cook + Andrew Luck. I had severe doubts about them being relevant in Week 1 but it looks like both are going to be ok moving forward. They are still overvalued imo but not by as much as I thought.

  5. AP. I thought his signing was a joke and that he had nothing left in the tank but a year off allowed him to recover from wear and tear and give him gas. I still don’t think he’ll last more than 6 weeks but man, that’s one WW pick up I totally slept on.