Thomas, Hill, Cook: keep 2/trade Hill?

Hey ballers,

In a 2 keeper league, trying to decide between keeping Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, and Dalvin Cook and possibly trading HIll…

.5 ppr scoring, w/ bonus pts for 40+ yd TDs, so Hill was the #1 WR last year, while Thomas was #9.

The Melvin Gordon owner in this league has offered to trade me Gordon for Hill straight up… I really like Dalvin Cook for 2019 though…

Not sure what to do… should I keep Thomas and Hill so I can trade Hill for Gordon?

Or keep Thomas and Cook and let Hill go?

Or keep HIll and Cook and trade HIll for Gordon?

Or just keep Hill and Thomas/or Cook and don’t trade for Gordon at all?

I would feel pretty good going into next year’s draft with just about any combination of these 4 players so I’m having a hard time deciding…

Things could change between now and August, but what would you all recommend if I had to decide today?

Thanks!

Are there any round penalties attached to keeping a player? For instance, MT is worth a 2nd round but Hill is worth a 1st? Or is a free for all and you can keep whomever?

oh sorry, forgot to mention that part… the keepers take the place of the first 2 rounds of the draft, so a you can keep whomever without losing a pick.

Thanks!

In that case I keep Melvin Gordon and Michael Thomas.
I know your league rewards 40+ yard plays; so, I would try to trade Michael Thomas for Melvin Gordon. If you can, then keep Gordon and Hill. If not, Gordon and Thomas.
Here’s why:
Gordon is a top 5 RB with top 3 potential
Cook is a low end RB1/high end RB2 with top 10 potential
Thomas is a top 5 WR (2nd half of this year was a little bit of a fluke) but won’t be top 3 because of the 40+ bonus.
Hill is a top 5 WR but with the bonus is top 3.
I value RB need over WR need; so, my rankings are:
Gordon
Hill
Thomas
Cook

The only thing that could change this is if you have an early pick and an unexpected gem is available. For example, if a guy isn’t keeping Gurley because of the injury issues. If that is the case and you can draft him, I would keep both WRs and draft Gurley. Not knowing who exactly is available in your league requires the advice to be in a vacuum, in which case, I’d follow my above rankings.

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Thanks, great points!

I’m picking 8th in the draft, but don’t know at this point who other teams will/won’t keep, so all I can do is guess who might be available… a few who might be available would be: Hilton, Cooper, Fournette, Allen, Cooks, Woods, Golladay, Mack, possibly Cook if I don’t keep him. I feel like I should be able to get a solid WR2 if I trade Hill or Thomas.

Also, can’t make any trades until after the draft… so I’ll probably keep Hill and Thomas, then try to trade Thomas for Gordon after the draft and if that doesn’t work, trade Hill for Gordon?

No trades until after the draft? Thats odd. But working within your league rules, yes I think thats the best option. Keep both Thomas and Hill. On draft day, draft Cook or best available RB, then, I recommend taking another RB after that unless there is a stud WR. This will protect you from not having RB depth if the Gordon owner backs out. Ideally the Gordon owner is still willing to deal and you walk into the season with a roster that looks like this:
Hill
WR2
Gordon
Cook
Fournette
If he backs out, you’re still set with
Hill
Thomas
Cook
Fournette

Either way, you’re sitting pretty.

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That was my one concern with the odd no trade rule. What if he backs out because his team makeup changes to where he has to, or if enough time goes on to where he changes his mind. Because i am all on board with trading hill for gordon. Hill is a monster and a surprising one at that because before last season he wasnt exactly a good route runner. He obviously put in a shit ton of work and has made himself into a very good one. BUT! Gordon is a monster himself, and in a position that is hard to find true all around players. He runs, a lot. For a lot of yards and a lot of TDs. He also catches, a lot. For a lot of yards and TDs. In 12 games he had 900 yards rushing, 10 TDs with 50 receptions, 500 yards and 4 TDs. Thats fucking insane. He was looking at around 1200 or more yards, 13 or so TDs, well into the 60s for receptions and over 600 yards with probably 5 recieving TDs. The only real concern for him now is health since he hasnt had the healthiest career. Either way, worth having him. So if he doesnt back out, fantastic you got yourself a top flight guy. If he does, congrats you have yourself a top flight guy haha. Its a win win, so keep hill and let the pieces fall where they may. I like cook too, but my like for him wont take away from the perfect combo of hill and mahomes.

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Rolling into next year with Gordon and Thomas i’d feel very confident, that said if you really love Cook for next year trust your gut and go with Cook + Hill

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Do you guys think there’s any chance Cook finishes ahead of Gordon in 2019? I think there is a chance if Cook stays healthy, but that’s a huge IF considering his first 2 injury filled years… not sure if I want that extra risk or not… the talent and opportunity is there for Cook though…

Obviously theres always a chance for any RB1/2 to finish ahead of each other; but, I think Gordon’s ceiling is the #1 RB and his floor (assuming health) is no lower than RB10. Cook on the other hand, his ceiling is RB7ish (behind Zeke, Barks, CMC, Gordon, Gurley, Kamara) but his floor could be outside the top 15. So no, as of now, I don’t see how Cook can finish ahead of Gordon. Gordon is the better player, gets more volume, and is on the more established offense.
My early tiers are:
1: Zeke, Barks, Gurley, Gordon
2: CMC, Kamara, Lev
3: DJ, Mixon, Cook, etc

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good call @michael_pounders I’m going to go after Gordon

I’m in another 2 keeper league where I have a dilemma…

My top 3 choices would be: Thomas, Cooper, and Kerryon… I have Hunt as well and he would’ve been my easy #2 along with Thomas, but since he’s a dumbass I’m left with keeping Thomas for sure then deciding between Cooper and Kerryon…

This is a standard scoring league, not ppr like the other one…

The upside good for both think, but both carry some risk. For Cooper the concern is about consistency and for Johnson it’s about opportunity…

I’m leaning Johnson, what you all think?

Thanks!

no penalites for keeper in this one either

I have to start by saying I’ve never played in a standard league; so, I realize my view may be narrowed. But here is what I’m thinking:

Cooper typically finishes as a WR3 who has #1WR weeks and #80WR weeks. Even in Dallas when he “went off” he had weeks with less than 5 points. Yes, his situation improved but he’s still the same player, a guy who can disappear randomly. Until I actually see consistency, thats my evaluation on him. Each year everyone, including me, creates a logical narrative as to why he’ll succeed, this year is no different; except, I am not buying in. So I see Cooper as an inconsistent WR3 who will blow up some weeks and disappear some weeks randomly.

Now Kerryon. I see his ceiling, in PPR, as top 12 (8-12 range) and floor top 24 range (20-24) because of his catching ability. Unfortunately, in standard, these rankings could shift down because you don’t get points for catches. Additionally, he’s on an average to below average offense in a tough defensive division; so, his scoring opportunities will likely be minimal. Strike 2 in standard league. On the upside, he will be the guy in Det. He’s likely to get 15-20 touches per game. And, he’s a talented player; so, with 15-20 touches I really don’t see a world where he’s outside the top 24. I just think his ceiling is lower in standard than PPR but floor is the same.

My rule of thumb when evaluating players cross positionally is: if both are in the same tier (WR1 and RB1) take the more scarce position/biggest need; and, in most cases that is the RB. So even if you value Cooper as a WR2 and Kerryon as a RB2, the RB position is more valuable. I, on the other hand, view Cooper as a WR3 and Kerryon as a high end RB2 with RB1 possibility so Kerryon is the no brainer for me.

Kerryon all day.

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Good take, @michael_pounders, thanks for the input I appreciate it!

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