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Thoughts on Derrick Henry this year


#1

What are people’s opinions and expectations of him this year? I was thinking about going after him in Dynasty if the price is right but keen to get peoples general takes on him realistically with Dion there for the next couple of years.


#2

Living in Nashville and hearing the local ESPN Radio guys talk daily there seems to be excitement about a Lewis/Henry workload split. I think there is optimism that this could be Henry’s breakout season with Dion helping drive that competition for touches. Not a bad handcuff idea to snag both if possible…maybe not so realistic in dynasty as re-draft.


#3

there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. brett here does a fantastic job of explaining things, and he sees a bright future for him with the way things are going. its a good watch from a guy who is VERY good at his job.


#4

Thanks for the feedback guys, I’m pretty hopeful for Henry and the optimist in me really does see him and Lewis as the Ingram/Kamara lite of the 2018 season just getting it done a little differently


#5

I have much less confidence in Henry. I don’t think he will be awful, just middle of the pack.

You can never rely on the huge plays, but they do happen. I like to predict performance by factoring out the longest run of a game and looking at the YPC afterwords. Henry’s stats look mediocre after this. 3.3-3.5 YPC. On 175 attempts that is not great, but let’s say he gets more work this year. If he gets 200 attempts I still do not have him breaking 1000 yds on the ground.

Brett does some great videos about scheme, but his metrics are off on the YPC. Henry had some HUGE runs off-tackle, factor those out and he is about the same.

I could be wrong.


#6

and i expect a regression on that front. but even if he does regress by 4 yards a carry, thats still a big YPC. i believe his point was that he should see a bump because of his run style fit. all in all, i agree with middle of the pack. i had him before at RB24, i bumped him to RB16. doesnt seem like much, but thats a pretty good jump and makes him worth his draft price. plus, the upside is that he does end up hitting big numbers and ends up an RB1. still young, and very little tread on the tires. i think he is a solid dynasty guy now.


#7

I have him lower than RB16, but I can get on board with that.