I apparently am very intrigued by the horrible Jets this year. I just asked a question about why Decker is so undervalued. I am going to pose the same question about Bilal Powell. Powell has back to back seasons of 50ish catches, and thrived at the end of last year when the jets fed him the ball as a workhorse. I projected him for a modest 201 carries, and still have him as a top 12-15 running back in half ppr leagues thanks to his pass catching. I think his ceiling is very high despite the poor team around him. Thoughts?
Powell is not some talented young player that has been buried on a depth chart. He is 29 years old and has very limited physical tools compared to other upside plays like Gillislee and Henry at his ADP. Powell will have value, but we need to temper expectations a bit before we start his hype train. He is a good all around back, but nothing special physically.
I guess the first thing to keep in mind is the limited upside when buying any part of this offense. It’s what’s driving the price down on all of these pieces. Powell seems to be the best back in town so he should get the most work which does count for something, but he’s a player who seems to flash over short spans then disappear. Forte looks old and slow but a savvy vet that can catch passes should still see plenty of work. Elijah McGuire will probably see work as well as the team looks towards the future. Overall, it’s all pretty ugly. Powell is cheap because he should be. If he falls to me, fine, but I’m not reaching for him personally.
I realize the touchdown upside isn’t high, but running back landscape sucks. If you can get a back that averaged 5.5 yards per carry last year and has 47 and 58 catches over the last two years, who also is expected to lead the timeshare. That sounds like an rb2 to me with how ugly the rb position is getting.
Travis, if you have stat projections for Powell I would be very interested in hearing them. Thanks for the reply btw.
I haven’t statted out Powell, so I won’t pretend like I have. If I were going to, I would probably start with around what Lamar Miller had from last year. A guy that has been super efficient, who suddenly finds themself with a bigger role on a terrible offense. I would bump his carries down significantly from 268 which was 6th most in the league, but raise his receptions enough to pretty much even that out. In the end I’d probably have his ceiling around RB17 and floor around RB22 where he finished last season over about 14 games.
To me, that’s a guy who should obviously be drafted, but as a depth piece, break glass in case of emergency option, not someone I’m relying on as my RB2 week in and week out. I’m hoping to grab someone with RB1 upside to occupy that spot. I’m also not a ZeroRBer, so this may be more of a question about philosophy.
Interesting. It really is crazy how just a couple of points difference per week can change rankings so much. In my mind he does have rb1 upside if everything goes right. Look at the last 5 games of last year. My projections right now have him at 200 carries at 4.4 per carry and 50 catches. Does that seem reasonable. And thanks again. This is exactly why I posted the question. Love hearing differing view points.
What do you have for TDs?
I have him down for 5 rushing touchdowns and 2 receiving touchdowns. The rushing touchdowns would be a career high I will admit, but didn’t seem out of reach if he leads the team in carries.
I don’t think those are crazy numbers, just a little more on the optimistic side. 61 more touches than he managed even with 74 targets last year (4th highest in the league). I don’t give him quite that big a piece of the pie and the 7 TDs is a little high for me. Just looked at the Ballers’ rankings. Andy and Jason have him around 20 and Mike has him at 13, so yeah seems like we’re both in the realm of sanity.
Yeah, that’s more than fair. I am projecting a big jump. But he also averaged 25.75 touches and .75 touchdowns over the last quarter of the season, which I know will not happen this year, but more enamored with the upside I guess. Like you said, we both have reasonable thoughts on the subject, just on differing sides of positivity.