Thursday Night game is over - What factors do you use to decide if you go 'chalk' or go 'upside' plays

At what point do you guys decide to play upside potential over rankings if you are down in a match up?

I had Ertz get me 10 but I went against Ajayi and Eagles D so that was roughly 30 points so I am down 20 after Thursday night ended.

Do I try to go ‘chalk’ with the rest of my lineup or do I need to go ‘upside’? My opponent has some potential huge plays left this week in Rodgers, A Brown (sans Bell) and Chris Hogan.

Also, since he has Brown, should I go Big Ben at QB to sort of counteract Brown’s scoring, or should I roll with Luck in the dome?

My Line Up (first name listed is starting)

QB-Big Ben /Luck
RB-R Freeman
WR-D Baldwin
WR-G Tate
TE-Ertz (10pts) roughly
FLEX-James Conner (I also have Burkhead, Hyde, K Cole that I could consider here)
K- Butker

His Line Up

QB-A Rodgers
RB-B Powell
RB-Jay Ajayi (20 pt)
WR-A. Brown
D-Eagles (10 pt)

I am projected down 10, but I don’t trust yahoo’s projections at all.

dumb question… but what is ‘chalk’? i’ve been seeing that term a lot this year

It’s more of a DFS term. If you go chalk you are going with players that most players will have in their team, presumably so you don’t lose ground with those picks. Your contrary picks are the upside picks that less people have that could blow up and if they do since so few have them then you would theoretically gain spots. Here, I think he means just going with the guys with highest projections or best floor as opposed to guys who could have blow up games.

Last night I went against Kupp. As a result, I might consider throwing someone like a John Ross (provided he were healthy) over say Cole Beasley (lots of targets but low ceiling) in my 1 pt PPR league just hoping that Ross does what he did week one to counteract Kupps big performance and knowing if he doesn’t and gets, say 3 pts, then I was probably going to lose anyways.

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