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Tier base drafting and this new mock episode


#1

Hey Guys Can you please help me understand the pick you guys made at #7 with Melvin Gordon. YOU ALL PREACH! About tier base drafting and YET you all draft Melvin Gordon, who is TIER 2 RB according to Your UDK which I loved. Clearly Hopkins is a TIER 1 RECEIVER that was available to draft. I would of thought you guys would go more in depth. Please help me understand, and please don’t suggest that there only few work horse backs. If that is the case please change the TIER systems towards favourable to Running Backs.


#2

I’m obviously not one of our hosts, but I’m pretty sure they would tell you that the tier based drafting process doesn’t mean you must select all tier 1 players, regardless of position, before you move on to tier 2 players. Nor would they say that all players of a certain position in a high ranked tier are necessarily greater in importance than players of another position in a lower ranked tier, i.e. Tier 1 WRs are not necessarily greater than Tier 2 RBs. The tiers show you relative importance within a specific position, not across them, i.e. Tier 1 RBs are greater than Tier 2 RBs.

To get a general idea of how our heroes see their tiers breaking across positions, compare their tiers to their top 200. The ranks don’t exactly line up since one is based on projections where the difference between values have numerical significance (i.e. tiers) and the other is simply a categorical ranking that uses integers (i.e. top 200), but that exercise will provide some insight on where the different tiers of RBs, WRs, TEs and QBs stack up with respect to each other.

Here’s a hint, in general (very, very, very general, not exact science, your mileage may vary, not responsible for #footclan titles lost by following this model, add every caveat you’ve ever heard and multiply by infinity before reading further)
QB tier = TE tier + 1 = WR tier + 2 = RB tier + 3, i.e.
QB tier 1 = TE tier 2 = WR tier 3 = RB tier 4.


#3

I completely agree with @MisterEd. Well said!

Looking at ADP your formula is descent. @Namz19 I would use this to better understand tier based drafting, but not follow this formula to draft.

Here is an article they released explaining tier based drafting.

I’ll highlight the part that explains the execution:

Tiers are great for identifying gaps in value at one position, but the tier-based drafting strategy shines when used to compare different positions. Let’s assume you have the 11th pick in the draft. The top 7 RBs have been drafted, along with to top 3 WRs. Using the tiers, you can quickly recognize that Jordan Howard is the last tier 2 RB available, while there are six Tier 2 WRs. Who should you pick?

If you select Jordan Howard, you’ve landed a Tier 2 RB, while still being able to draft a Tier 2 WR with your next selection. Players in a tier are all considered similar with similar projected outcomes. Even if the drafter with picks 12/1 selects WRs, you will still have at least 4 Tier 2 WRs available with the 2nd Round selection.


#4

Taking a WR there would have left them pretty dry at RB. Take a look at what happened in subsequent rounds; Devontae was the BPA and he fell to them and in the next two rounds they were able to build their WR corps w/ two target monsters in Thielen and Fitz.

Had they gone WR early, the RB value wouldn’t have been there for them at 3.07 and 4.06, not as high as the WR value.

And that is generally the case with RB value; it craters from Rds 4–6. You don’t want to chase RB value while players like Thielen, Josh Gordon, and Diggs are flying off the board.

To me, the real question is why not Saquon at 1.07?

They cite the chargers as a better team as their reason.


#5

Thanks You Evryone For Comments… Much appreciated. This help me understand a bit… Thanks again!!!


#6

Not that I am an expert by any means… if you wanted to organize a mock draft I’d be happy to join and walk through tier picks. I’m sure there would be others who would want to join.