Top 12 Bust QBs, 2 deep sleepers

Every year for the last five in fantasy football calculators ADP, between 4 and 7 QBs drafted top 12 dont finish top 12. The last three years it’s been 5 and 6 QBs.
Current QBs in that pool.
Rodgers, Watson, Wilson, Brady, Wentz, Newton, Brees, Cousins, Garappolo, Stafford, Luck, Ryan.
Pick let’s lowball it and say, pick 5 to not finish top 12.

Also fun fact, same ADP chart. Literally every year 2 of the top 6 QBs come from ADP 15+.

garappolo, luck, watson, wilson, and brady. i might switch wilson for brees.

garappolo should be easy to explain. hasnt actually shown us he can, team may not support it… blah blah blah. question marks is the big thing here.

luck, its just a health thing. he could spend the first 6 weeks just shaking rust off and being worked back in. might end strong start slow.

Watson, i think there is WAY too much hype for him. can he be prolific? hell yeah. will he be all year long? hell no. consistency is what i need to see first before i believe he is the next best thing.

wilson may MAKE the top 12 just because of my reason he may not, crappy team, crappy o line, D is in shambles. so its all on him. can he still do it without leaning on his D? TBD but i think he can, just may not be as likely.

finally, brady. bring the hate if you want, but he is old, and doesnt exactly have a great WR core. their acquisition of RBs the last few years should tell you what they are doing. they are prepping for him leaving. for his decline. and what brady says about playing till 45 or not, age doesnt hold off just because you have a handful of rings and your name is tom brady. i think this is the decline year. the payton manning effect if you will.

and the substitute brees is something similar to wilson, on the reverse. he HAS a good team. good run game, good D, great WRs… he may just not have to do as much this year.

I had the similar answers as @BusterD, I just couldn’t find the best wording/explanation for half of them.

I believe Luck, Garappolo, Brady, Ryan, and Watson will be out of it.

ryan was another one i thought about. but i kind of think he will just hover around QB10.

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Brady, Garappolo, Watson, Luck, and Wentz are my five.

Brady has been great early and dismal down the stretch, and with the turmoil in the passing game, I doubt he has a consistent enough season to finish top 5.

Garappolo won 5 winnable games, and while he was impressive, he didn’t do anything that screamed “elite fantasy QB”. He’ll be solid, I have him just outside the top 12 at QB13 but that’s his ceiling.

Watson is due for some massive regression, and while I like the player, I can’t see a scenario where he comes out running the ball and flinging it around like he did before the injury.

Luck is going to be eased back into the offense… assuming he even starts game one (which I’m not convinced after last year). He’ll be a QB1 for stretches but it won’t start earlier enough in the season to secure a QB1 finish for the year.

Wentz was described as “hesitating” slightly by head coach Doug Pederson, further enforcing the narrative that QB’s take some time to get right after a major knee injury. I love Wentz long term, but he’s not going to repeat the same crazy efficiency that helped him become a fantasy stalwart last year.

I think it’s crazy that Ryan is being drafted in the 12th round of ESPN leagues behind Dak, Luck, and Garoppolo… He was QB15 last year (only 32 points back from a QB10 finish in ESPN standard scoring leagues) and yet despite an improved offense and a healthy run game, he’s not being given enough credit for what should be a noticeable positive regression. If I had to bet on ANY quarter back in the QB12-20 this year it’s Ryan.

honestly, kind of my though. i do have him just chillin at QB10. i dont really move him. everyone else has moved a bit, but he just kind of… stays. i could see him ending up QB5, or QB15. so i just split the difference haha.

I loved Garappolo as a sleeper this off season but when he shot up to the 9th overall at the start of the off season (and he hasn’t moved) I just thought that was a bit ridiculous.
Same with Watson for the same reason. Though guys like him/Wilson/Newton are hard to see outside the top 12 because of their running ability. But there was that year that Carolina didn’t use Newton’s legs in the game plan and he stunk.

Same ADP Chart, because of injuries to Aaron Rodgers, Wilson and Brees are the only QB to finish top 12 every year for the last 6 straight.
I do think grandfather time is coming for Brady. He’ll be good, but I can easily see him finishing 13-16.
I have an identical list.
Wentz and Watson are also coming off of injury which can effect mentality more than we expect.

Let’s add that last fact to the mix. Who are two guys ADP 15+ that can be top 6?

Bortles and Prescott are mine

I like Mariota to take that jump with a Matt LaFluer offense propping him up with a modern passing attack. I don’t see Vrabel having much to do with that offense, and LaFluer has a history of getting the most out of his QBs (I give him more credit for Matt Ryan’s MVP season than Shanahan to be honest).

I also really like Tyrod Taylor to produce at a high level. I actually believe all this noise that Hue Jackson is making about Taylor being the starter this year, and consider how well he produced in the past with very few weapons, the upgrades at the wide receiver position as well as the stocked backfield means he’ll have even more opportunities to produce in what amounts to a contract year for him.