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Trade AJ Green + Jordan Howard for LevBell?


#1

Hi Footclan. Who wins this trade?
12 team half ppr:
My Jordan Howard and AJ Green for Le’veon Bell
QB: Luck
RB: JHoward, Christian McCaffrey
WR: Demaryius Thomas
TE: Jimmy Graham
Flex: Allen Robinson
BN: Ginn, Woodhead, Riddick, Jordan Matthews, Moncrief


#2

I cannot in good conscious agree with that trade. You’re literally trading 2 #1’s for one number 1 because he catches out of the backfield. I’ts only 1/2 ppr, i wouldn’t force it. Plus Bell has had issues with playing a full season. Green is an absolute stud to be peppered with targets from Dalton and has the potential t be a top 3 WR this year, J. Howard is a yards machine, and I know they will try to get him better redzone attempts. I wouldn’t do it unless your’re the on giving up Bell, but that’s just my opinion. Good luck.


#3

Thanks for the response Weddle. I declined and countered for him to add TY Hilton or Alshon and he declined as well. Not all trades work out!


#4

I don’t think Howard is a number 1. I think he’s in for a Gurley like collapse (may be worse, since I don’t think he’s nearly that talented). Green is definitely a stud, but Bell is an absolute monster. He’s an RB1 and a WR2 in the same roster spot. The only concern I have is the hold out. Hold out RBs do have a troubling history. That concern makes this close for me. I’d probably do it.


#5

Any other opinions?? I am so torn on this… might be able to get Diggs out of this trade as well


#6

Giving up way too much.You should get someone way better than Diggs in return as well such as a Dez Bryant, Doug Baldwin, Crabtree or someone like that.


#7

I love people who say that Howard is in for a Gurley year… it’s the laziest analysis anyone can make this year. The only parallels you can draw is that Howard is a sophomore and that they’re both on overall poor offenses even though Howard is running behind a top 3 offensive line and Gurley is definitely not… on top of that they’re 2 completely different runners. Successful run rate is the determining factor between Gurley and Howard… Gurley actually had a larger percentage of successful runs last year than he did in 2015 (though it was overall still an embarrassing number)… the problem was he just wasn’t breaking off the 40+ yard runs that made his stats look good in 2015… Howard had an elite level success rate in 2016 meaning a vast majority of his runs went for 3+ yards… he’s no special athletic talent but he has elite level vision and synergy with his elite O-Line. If we’re drawing parallels Gurley has far more in common with Jay Ajayi… embarrassing success rates and totally dependent on breaking huge runs to put up a respectable stat line. If you’re looking for this year’s Gurley then Jay Ajayi is your man… the only edge I give Ajayi is that he should have more opportunity to score… and for the record I think Gurley’s talent as a RB is absurdly exaggerated. He’s a physical specimen with great athletic ability… but I’ll take the non-athletic guy with great vision and an elite O-Line any day of the week lol… literally the only concern anyone should have with Howard is the CHI defense giving up too much and Howard falling victim to poor game script… and it’s safe to say that the defense probably isn’t worse than they were last year when Howard had 1300 yards on what was essentially 12 starts… Howard has an incredibly safe floor with a limited upside week to week.


#8

Man I love being insulted by people who don’t know anything about me. Base all of your analysis on stats if you want. I watched him, and saw a very good, but not special runner. Here’s some facts for you: 1) running backs on bad teams, that don’t offer much out of the backfield, are extremely unpredictable; 2) being on a bad offense limits TD chances; 3) Howard is a poor reciever (he lead the league in drops, but if you watch him, that doesn’t even tell the whole story of how bad he really is at it); 4) he still caught nearly 30 ball for nearly 300 yards amd a TD, because there really wasn’t another option; 5) his team drafted a back in the 4th round, with the clear intent of usingn him in the passing game (may not pan out, but that was clearly the point of the pick; 6) Jeremy Langford is back, and while he isn’t the same caliber runner as Howard, I suspect he’ll still get work, and is also a better pass catcher); 7) Howard lead the league in both rushing attempts and rushing yards when trailing. Betting on that to continue seems suspect to me, especially with new pass catching options; 8) there is no other threat on the offense. That’s the big one. That’s why he scares me and that’s why I compared him to Gurley. Fornette scares me for the same reasons (plus the foot). I’ll even grant that he was successful against stacked boxes last year. The line is good. Those are reasons for optimism. I don’t think it’s sustainable, and don’t think he’s an RB1 this year, especially if he loses any carries/catches, which I expect him to. Saying he has a safe floor is ridiculous.

Even if I’m wrong about Howard, which is possible, Bell is an entirely different animal.

All of that said, upon reconsideration, i think I was a bit too focused on Howard here and didn’t account enough for Green. If you believe Howard is an RB1, this is a bad trade. I’d you believe he’s an RB2, it’s probably still risky, but I would still consider it. If you don’t trust him as either (I still really don’t), then it’s a steal.


#9

Good arguments here. I recently watched a video that Brett Kollman released on Jordan Howard which i found to be enlightening on his ability as a lead RB. I ended up sticking with my guys as I feel it is a bigger risk to give both of them up and take Bell.


#10

Yea, i get that. Green makes it hard, for sure. Good luck to you :).


#11

Btw, you need a QB for week 1 :slight_smile:


#12

I didn’t insult you… I said comparing him to Gurley is lazy because the only real comparison is “sophomore slump.” Giving actual reasons for disliking him (which you then did) isn’t lazy lol… and for the record, I never said it’s a fair trade… no way I’d accept if I was offered for Bell… as for Howard not being an RB1… if you can put 12 other RBs ahead of him then more power to you… but I certainly can’t… and any RB getting 20-25 touches per game behind a line that good has a safe floor… I think Cohen will get used too but if by end of season he averaged even 8 touches per game I’ll be utterly shocked… considering that’s about all Henry averaged when Howard was healthy last year… and if you think the bears are going to utilize Langford has any kind of role other than depth on this offense then I’m not sure you actually watched the games last year…


#13

Fair enough. Sorry for overreacting. I didn’t expect Langford to be heavily involved, but did expect him to be more so than last year. Clearly, since they cut him, I was wrong.