10 team PPR redraft. Going to include my roster and his at the bottom to help perhaps modify the trade, if you guys think I can figure out a better offer. He’s WR heavy and needs RB help, and FWIW, I think values Hilton less than Juju.
Rest of my team:
BN: Drew Brees
BN: Keelan Cole
BN: Big Mike Williams
BN: Corey Clement
BN: Peyton Barber
BN: Josh Gordon
RB: Adrian Peterson
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Adam Thielen
TE: Jimmy Graham
W/R/T: TY Hilton
BN: Tyler Lockett
BN: Sony Michel
BN: Austin Ekeler
BN: Bilal Powell
BN: Big Ben
Hmm thats rough… in a vacuum I wouldnt accept that if I were him… but at the same time he doesnt really need Juju… Id make that offer and see if he takes it but if Im hom Im thinking I can get more for juju personally.
Yeah my only real issue with the trade is that he legit has no starting RB. You get stuck relying on Michel, which while I like him long term I definitely don’t want to start him yet.
We’ve been chatting about this and have kinda landed here, but I’m just not sure if I like the offer as it stands. I feel like giving up Breida AND Fitz AND Clement (my Ajayi protection, without giving up Ajayi) is a little steep. I might sub Fitz out for Big Mike Williams, or sub Ajayi in for Breida. Maybe AJayi and Clement for Juju and Michel or something? This is like a puzzle because his RBs are so weak lol
I just offered him back Ajayi/Clement/Big Mike Williams for Juju and Michel. I think he’s going to counter.
I want to bump this to try to get some more replies if possible
This is easily the slam dunk trade.
Breida is a mediocre matchup based flex play at best. Clement is a handcuff. Fitz is on the NFL’s worst team. Every single one of these players will likely be worth less next week this time.
JuJu is heavily involved in that offense. Without Bell, they are passing a tonne.
Michel is an incredibly talented back who is finally getting rotated into the patriots backfield which will be putting up points, as they have always done.
I really appreciate your input but you can easily construe each of the analysis that you made the exact opposite direction, right? Breida could easily not be a mediocre matchup play at best, considering he was a beast last week and Alf was not – touches should start tilting heavily in his favor. Clement is a handcuff, but Jay is banged up, could that change things? Fitz is on the NFL’s worst team, and is also the NFL’s most established WR. Doesn’t being down all the time spell lots and lots of garbage time?
Sure if you want to ignore an entire season of what he did last year and the 1st game, in favor of the one blow up game vs the leagues worst defense. Is it possible Breida is a rockstar? Of course it is. Fantasy is about knowing when to sell high on fluke performances to take advantage of value. Breida screams sell high to me. He is actually getting outsnapped and out carried by Morris. Early on in the season, when its a murky situation, I tend to focus on volume more than outcome. I don’t expect breida to be ripping 60 yard TD runs every week. Also, if you watched the play, he didn’t really do anything. Garcon literally took the safety and embarrassed him blocking him about 40 yards down field. It was actually sad to see as a former defensive back. That same Lions defense is the one that let up the 60 yard TD to Crowell. Why aren’t people also clamoring for him? Because common sense tells you it’s likely not sustainable. I’ll make bets on established talents over lightning in a bottle. That means you miss out on the upside of players sometimes, but more often than not, it doesn’t work out. In the vikings game which was negative game script which should have heavily favored Breida, it didn’t. Why not? Because Shanny probably knows that he’s not going to last the season as someone who touches the ball 20 times. He gets no goal line involvement, why? Because Morris is a better goal line back. So for you to buy into Breida, you ahve to assume he continues at this level of efficiency on very similar volume cause I don’t see a world where he comes out as a workhorse back. There are too many factors working against Breida to get behind the hype train after one game. I’m not construing anything. I’m just taking the information available to me at a time and forming what I view as my best educated guess as someone who watches the game. I watched the game, Breida looked better than Morris. Was more efficient. But on those big plays, I didn’t really see anything that jumped off the page to me. Against a decent team or decent defense, he gets tackled and doesn’t have nearly the stat line he is currently showing. Take away that 60 yard TD and you wouldn’t even be talking about him. I don’t like to bet on streaky players like that. I’d rather bet on people who I see will be taking upticks in volume and talents I believe in.
I’ve done the research on Michel. I’d happily bet right now that Michel > Breida ROS in any format.
I’ve watched enough of JuJu to know he is the real deal. AB draws so much attention away that JuJu is constantly getting easy coverage and Ben trusts him for all the short underneath throws, has one of the highest QB ratings when targeting him and he is great after the catch. Never drops the ball, and just a genuinely good dude who the steelers love. He is tied to their future. Also, Steelers are going to be one of the highest scoring offenses, as they are every year with ben slinging the rock probably more than they are used to given Bell is not there. I always want players on good offenses, not players on mediocre or bad ones. End of the day, it’s about points and the better your offense, the better chance your players will score.
If Fitz had a semi competent QB throwing, I’d agree. Right now, Sammy Biscuits looks like a replacement level QB who doesn’t give a shit about the game. The coaching staff there is absolutely trash and I don’t have an ounce of faith in them. If you want to continue hanging onto them in the hopes that Fitz will emerge with 100+ catches and 1k yards and another 8 TDs, I can’t blame you. He’s done it year after year. But I think JuJu is almost a lock to eclipse that with much lower risk. SO end of the day, you’re getting the best WR out of the deal, the better RB out of the deal and you’re giving up an extra handcuff.
This deal to me is a no brainer. But it’s your team so if you want to go with those other narratives, that’s your prerogative.
Sending it with Barber instead of Clement just to protect my Ajayi
You’ve convinced me on the deal, but I don’t really see a reason why Breida won’t be Shanahan’s Devonta Freeman 2.0. Watch him make guys miss and carry guys on his back on some of these runs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDG7au8kvnI
For the same reason why I didn’t think McKinnon would be Shannahan’s Freeman 2.0. People are so quick and copy paste stats from player to player based on coaching without considering the actual talent and runner. People did it with McKinnon and Freeman, then they did it with Hill and Cohen. Need to consider other things. Freeman is a superior runner to both Breida and McKinnon. He is a superior pass catcher to both Breida and McKinnon. For all the hype Breida is getting for his pass catching, he is actually a sub-par pass catcher and mediocre at best. His catch rate last year was awful and was graded as one of the worst pass catching backs in the league. Just cause he’s better than Morris doesn’t make him good. There’s relative standards and then there’s absolute standards. He is also nowhere near as good as Freeman running between the tackles and doesn’t have the same cutting ability as Freeman. The talent gap is huge. Atlanta also has a superior O line to 49ers. They also have arguably one of the best WRs and field stretchers of this generation. He also has the dome and the turf. 49ers play outdoors. Like I said above, he also doesn’t get any goal line carries. Freeman was and still is an absolute beast when it comes to getting into the endzone. He is great in that area of the field where Breida has shown so far he is less than capable. That’s why they have Morris.
The list goes on and on and on. There are so many reasons why I think it is incredibly unlikely Breida coems anywhere NEAR freeman’s numbers.
I can go and pull highlights for like 90% of the players in the NFL that make them look amazing. It’s what they do on the other non highlight worth plays that makes the difference. Breida isn’t that guy. Keep drinking the kool-aid if you want but I find it hard to believe he becomes even 70% of what Freeman was at his peak.
Can a player not get better? Have you ever looked at Devonta Freeman’s rookie year stats?
Players can definitely get better. But freeman has been the exact same style of runner since college. Great between tackles, incredibly physical runner (to his detriment) and his plant cut/burst and jump cut is absolutely disgusting and nasty, arguably one of the best in the NFL. Drake is another. It’s hard to develop that over time. I’ve rarely seen RBs be able to just all of sudden come from college to NFL, play in the NFL for a year, and then magically develop an elite jump cut. When it comes to that, you either have it or you don’t. Breida’s cool and all, but just don’t see it. Also the coaches bringing in McKinnon should tell you something. They know more than both of us. If Breida was their guy, they wouldn’t have paid McKinnon what they did. Then when McKinnon went down, what did they do? Brought in Morris. That signals to me that they felt that Breida was not that guy. So if you are that high on Shannahan, you should also trust in his personnel decisions no?
Again, is it possible Breida breaks out and I’m eating crow in 3 weeks? Of course, I’m wrong all the time. But I like to play the odds. And my money is against that rather than for that.
Well to be fair, they brought Morris in the first time McKinnon got banged up in camp, simply as a warm body who was familiar with KS system. I’m skeptical because I do have a feeling in my chest that Breida could be something special this year. I don’t really see a way that Sony Michel possibly outscores him – I don’t love Burkhead, but the Patriots seem to, so he’s going to get his work. James White has his passing role. Breida’s only competition-- literally, only competition – is the visibly washed up Morris. But I’m also thinking that with this deal I can improve on Larry Fitz to Juju, which might help my lineup overall. Larry is great, but that offense has been putrid through two weeks.
Either way, I appreciate your perspective and this dialogue.
So you’re saying you think Breida easily outperforms Lewis last year during the stretch lewis was a starter? Where he was basically an RB1 or RB2 70% of the games. If you actually think that, then go ahead and keep breida. I don’t see that happening. My thought is Michel walks right into the Lewis role and white begins to get phased out of the offense again. Similar to last year. Getting his like 6-8 touches a game. Burkhead gets like 10-15, and michel gets 15-18 a game, splitting goal line with burkhead with the upside for more. Michel is fully capable 3 down back. Can run, catch and pass pro. Wouldn’t even be surprised if Burkhead touches go down.
Michel is more talented than both of them by a mile and I don’t really think it’s close. His first week back, already touched the ball 12 times and that number goes up not down. Even if it stays even with Breida, let’s say both continue to get 15 touches a game going down the stretch, I’ll take 15 touches of a patriots backfield over 15 touches in a 49ers backfield every day of the week. Especially considering the 49ers touches will not goal line touches.
Would happily bookmark and waterbet this and leave it here and see what happens.
Not a bad point, and if I do the trade obviously I’ll be rooting for you to be right haha. Leaning towards doing it at this point, so I’m down to bookmark and check back at a later juncture for sure.
Let’s do it. I got a lot of waterbets going on here so gotta keep track of them. I’m living or dying on the Michel hill this year.