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Trading back in rookie draft


#1

We are finishing up our slow startup draft and will do a rookie draft next. I currently hold the 1.2 spot in the rookie draft (via trade) and the 2.4. My team shaped up pretty good with the exception of RB. Currently M. Mack is my RB 2 so that will probably be where I’m spending most draft capital on rookies. I don’t have a real strong opinion on anyone outside of Barkley so I’m thinking of moving back and maybe trying to get 3 guys in the first two rounds and hope 1-2 pop. What do you think? Anyone you are absolutely sold on who I should pick number 2?


#2

I personally feel Guice is underrated because of his fall in the draft. He seems like an incredible player and person who is unfortunately in Saquon’s shadow. He and Chubb are the only other ones I’d consider RB1 worthy. Maybe Penney but his situation is awful for many reasons. This class is top heavy too. After RJ2 and Kerryon, it falls off a cliff IMHO. I don’t feel that Royce Freeman and Kerryon are really that amazing. Situation shouldn’t be considered too much over talent. In the 2nd at RB, there won’t be much besides passing down backs. I’d stick with Guice or find someone who is willing to trade a pick next year. I think the RB class from last year is where more of the studs will be. You can also cobble together 3rd and 4th round picks and target Samuels, Walton, Wilkins, Hines etc. and maybe one of them hits. That would be keeping your 1.02 of course.


#3

Couldn’t disagree more. This is one of the strongest RB classes I have ever seen. Personally, I love Michel but he’s definitely a higher risk pick. He’s my personal 1.02 but I know I’m in the minority there. But if you’re at 1.02, I wouldn’t fight you for taking guice. Having him as my RB2 and Mack as my RB3 seems more than fine to me. Lots of people like Penny but i personally have zero faith in Shittenheimer as an OC so I want no part of it. I’m sure there is someone else in your league who absolutely loves guice as well so if you can flip it for a mid 1st + a late first and leave the draft with Kerryon + Freeman, I’d say that’s a pretty great return. I’m very big on Kerryon but you’ll need patience for him to pan out. I personally don’t think Ameer Abdullah even makes the roster, riddick is always hurt and once Blounte leaves next year, the backfield is his to own.

And with Freeman, I don’t think he’s that the most talented but he’s definitely better than Booker. And he is going to have the most opportunity. So that adds some pretty great depth to your roster where Freeman is your RB2 this year and Kerryon is that homerun hitter who if he pans out, really fills out remainder of your roster.

I do not recommend trading into next year at all. This is by far the superior RB draft class and it isn’t even close.


#4

I agree with most of what you are saying. After Barkley I see a very solid pack with maybe Guice slightly ahead of the rest but not one guy who jumps out for me. I think I’m going to see if I can get a mid to late 1st round pick and pick up some extras. If I could end up with freeman and ronald jones/kerryon I think I’d be happy. I should mention that this is a 2qb league so I imagine QB’s should fill up some of the first round with that format and I’m pretty set at QB with Jimmy handsome, Carr and Luck.


#5

Oh its a SF league. That changes everything. Baker/Lamar/Rosen are all going to go in the first round. Darnold should probably go in the 1st as well tbh. So it’s going to push guys like Kerryon/Royce to the back half of the 1st. Honestly, 1.02 should be a QB. Probably baker. So you should be able to trade back and still get Guice/Penny/Michel + Kerryon or one of the top WRs. I would definitely trade back then assuming you’re good at QB.


#6

^^^^^^^Yup. In my SF Dynasty Michel and Penney went at 5 and 7. Chubb went at 4 but that’s because my buddy LOVES him. He should be there in the late 1st with RJ. If you can pick up a 2nd this year, this could really pay off. We had Kirk, Miller and Gallup all in the late 2nd round. Ridley went 2.04 I believe. I do love this RB class, especially for depth, I just think there are more studs from last year. Next year’s draft is light at RB and heavy at WR. I was just throwing out an option.


#7

How were there more studs last year? Last year was Fournette (stud), Mixon who disappointed everyone, Hunt who is a stud but really only got there cause of the perfect situation of injury, Kamara who some people liked but again, needed the situation to let it all show, Perine who was trash, foreman who’s overhyped and is now injurred. I mean if Ware didn’t get injurred, would you really be saying last year had more studs than this year? You have Barkley who is unanimously one of the most talented backs to ever come out of the draft who is going like top 6-8 in startups, guice who is guaranteed starter. Penny who is basically a lock to start. Michel who will most likely lead that backfield. Freeman, also probably leads. Chubb who is crazy talented but probably won’t start until later in the year. Kerryon is talented but like Kamara/Hunt last year, needs the opportunity to get there. ROJO, who is most likely to start. And then you have guys like Kelly who in my eyes has Hunt potential if Gurley gets injured.

You can’t really look back and do revisionist history and say oh well Kamara and Hunt blew up so that was the best class ever cause before the season, nobody saw that coming. Comparing preseason this class to last class, I don’t even think its close in terms of both raw talent, starters and depth at the RB position.


#8

Great feedback guys. Being my first venture into dynasty I am finding that I love this so much more than re-draft. So much more strategy when thinking about building for now as well as the future.


#9

Right. Well, just like you are offering your opinion to the contrary, I am offering my opinion of what I hear from the dynasty community. I just personally feel that Fournette, Cook, Hunt and Mixon all have the ability to be 3 down backs. Hunt was on the radar of tons of dynasty evaluators last year so I don’t see where he came out of nowhere. I feel he would have eventually beat out Ware anyway. McCaffery and Kamara have some immense value, especially in PPR leagues. Nobody doubted Kamara’s talent, it was that it was for only one season in college. Yes, this year’s class is loaded too and Barkely surely gives it a leg up but I don’t see as many 3 down backs is all. I think the question marks on this year’s class are more significant than last year. Chubb can’t catch, Michel has fumbling problems, Penney is horrible at pass blocking, etc. I’m not saying they’ll be bad, just temper expectations. The same thing happened in 2015 when Cooper, White, Parker et al followed the 2014 WR class and how did that work out? Again, just my opinion. That’s why we all participate. To give a breadth of opinions and let the person with the question decide. Somebody has to bust and there are scenarios for that in both classes. As dynasty usually goes for RB, we’ll be having a different discussion on the same topic in just two or three seasons.


#10

None of us here are experts at identifying successful prospects. One of the hardest things to do and even people who do it for a living mess it up as seen by the high bust rate from year to year. Feeling like hunt would have beat our ware is different from him actually doing it. Ware was a very productive RB. I totally agree that from a talent perspective, Hunt is superior but he wouldn’t have had a chance to showcase it without Ware going down. At best, they would’ve spent most of their time in a committee and we’ve all seen that Hunt needs the volume to take over the game so being in a committee, who knows if we’d be talking about hunt the way we do now.

How many 3 down backs were there last year? CMac isn’t and never will be a 3 down back. Don’t need to be a 3 down guy to be considered a stud. Whether or not you’re 3 downs capable is also all about landing spot. If Guice, Chubb, Michel landed in a backfield where there was no competition, they could easily be 3 down backs. Your statement of chubb not being able to catch is based on what? Colleges just rarely use RBs out of the backfield for catching. That’s the system. He also had to split time with both Swift and Michel. Maybe you don’t remember this but before Barkley, Chubb was basically noted as one of the top prospects at running back ever. He was an absolute phenom as a freshman before his injury and actually caught like 18 passes. Which is a very high respectable number for a college running back. So he is more than capable of catching passes. He just happened to land in a spot where they happened to have one of the best pass catchers in the NFL coming out of the backfield in Duke.

Hunt was and still is an awful pass protector. Like most rookie RBs so not sure how that is different from Penny. Michel has fumbling problems? Sure. He’s also one of the best pass protectors coming out of college evaluated in the last few years and one of the most dynamic runners. Obviously he’s talented or Pats wouldn’t have used a 1st round pick on him. You can find fault in most prospects, including the ones from last year. Totally agree with you that chances of busting are high but given we can’t see into the future, can only assess apples to apples. Last years players before we saw what they could do vs the rookies now before we see what they will do. Totally unfair to try and compare what you’ve already seen from last year vs this year.

And I’m not going to pretend like I can assess talent better than those who do it for a living. So the draft stock spent on RBs this year should also give you some indication.

1st rounders: 2 in 2017 (Fournette, CMac) vs 3 in 2018 (Barkley, Michel, Penny)
2nd Rounders: 2 in 2017 (Cook, Mixon) vs 4 in 2018 (Chubb, ROJO, Kerryon, Guice)
3rd Rounders: 2 in 2017 (Hunt, Kamara) vs. 1 in 2018 (Freeman)

If you’re just looking backwards and saying last year had more studs than this year, than I can maybe get on board with you because I think that year was a bit of an outlier in terms of how many prospects ended up panning out. Basically everyone not named Perine/mixon were very productive. But without being able to see in the future, I was saying that just from analyzing prospects perspective (i.e. before the start of last season vs right now), this year’s class has more talent than any class I’ve seen in a long time.