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Trading Down. Would you ever?


#1

Here is my situation. Would love to hear open thoughts on it.

I have the 5th pick in a 12 team/half ppr/redraft/snake/1Q-2R-2W-1T-1F-5B. Seems like every ranking has me picking Jones or OBJ. Using tiers, Nelson is in tier 1 with these options but to me its really Tier 1A - Brown, Tier 1B (no particular order) - Jones, OBJ, Nelson, Green and Evans. I know with pick 9, I would be guaranteed one of these 1B-WR. But realistically I know some guys in my league in round 1 will pick purely on ADP, so likely I would guarantee myself one of them with pick 11. But for this argument, say I had the opportunity to swap pick 1.5 for 1.9 in exchange I would give up 2.8 in exchange for 2.4. Is this something anyone would consider? Why or Why not? For the moment, not looking for any arguments on why I shouldn’t pick a WR over and RB. For this topic lets just say I’m set on going WR in round 1.

Here is some examples of what I could get using arbitrary rankings that I have handy:

Using Yahoo’s current ADP rankings , without the trade I would get Jones and Gurley. With the trade I would get my choice of Green and Nelson as well as Dez

Using the Footballers rankings, without the trade I would get Jones and Lynch and with the trade I would have my choice of Nelson/Green/Evans and for the second pick have Michael Thomas.

Looking forward to hearing some thoughts on this. :sunglasses:

Cheers!

R


#2

Hello me! I did almost exactly what you’re mentioning yesterday in a Footclan league. My thinking was the same as yourself, I feel comfortable taking a WR in the back half of the 1st round and wasn’t 100% on taking Jones/OBJ despite the fact they are obviously best available and elite options. I’ve moved from the 1.05 to the 1.09 to move up quite a lot in the 6th and 9th, I also moved down one spot on the 2nd round (2.03 to 2.04).

Overall I’m happy with the move, but can see the argument for taking a true elite receiver if you do believe Jones, OBJ and Brown are in the same tier.


#3

Who did you end up taking at 1.09? and of the other WRs (Green/Nelson/Evans), who was left?


#4

The draft isn’t until nearer the start of the season, so there’s probably some risk in what I did given there could be pre-season injuries, but I was happy enough to do it now. I’d be interested in hearing the other side of it, people obviously would value taking OBJ/Julio over the other guys that we seem happy to ‘settle’ for!


#5

This is the EXACT strategy you should use and it speaks to the power of tier based rankings + the power of understanding your league mates.

Until I made a different trade, I had planned on using a similar strategy in my dynasty rookie draft. With the 1.02 and 1.06 I could take Marshawn at 2 and guarantee myself a top rookie RB like Mixon at 6. Win win for my team at the time.

Good luck!


#6

Oh sorry. Misread your first post. Yeah bit of risk but at 1.09 your guaranteed one of the other WR so not to bad. if you traded for deeper in the first it would be more of a risk. I don’t think I can get the 1.09 but the 1.10 is a good chance. Also curios to see what others say.


#7

I think you absolutely trade back and here is why…

While Jones is an absolute stud, is it not easy to imagine Green or Nelson having a comparable year as him? Also, Jones is somewhat of injury risk. Furthermore, I’ll take Rodgers throwing to my WR (assuming you get Nelson) over Ryan (nothing against Ryan, but he just isn’t Rodgers).

So you can arguably get WR of equal value at 5 and 9. So it is more or less a wash. Now you trade up 5 spots in the second round to grab someone of better value. I think you go for it.


#8

I agree totally with your idea. I traded up, down and then back up several times in mine. My goal was to front load my starters. I wound up completely out of a few middle rounds, several picks in the 13th-15th, and 7 picks in the first 6 rounds (2 1st’s, a 3rd, a 4th, 2 5th’s and a 6th). My theory was that there were enough scratch off tickets I was willing to stock on my bench in the late rounds, a bunch of guys that made me fell yucky in the middle, and I wound up getting Julio, AJ, Fournette, Brady, Ingram, and Woodhead. The more you mock and know about who’s going where, the more comfortable you get with moving picks around, targeting the guy you want, and then finding guys you’re willing to settle for later. It’s all about value.