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Trying to unload Hopkins


#1

Trying to get out of the tom savage business.
Would you take shady/diggs for kamara/hopkins? Full PPR
Other RB is Lev, Other WR Cooks/Parker/Sanu


#2

I wouldn’t give up Kamara. Ingram is one more fumble from being benched. I also wouldn’t trade Hop for another WR with QB issues.

Try to target guys like Crabtree, Michael Thomas, or Tyreek Hill.


#3

Oof that’s close. I’m significantly higher on Hopkins than most it seems. I don’t think the dropoff is as catastrophic as people think. Will he be the #1 overall WR in fantasy anymore…no. But he’s on a crap team that will have to throw alot because they’ll be down. He’ll get targets and is very very talented. He’s still top 8 ROS I think. Shady > Kamara for sure, but Diggs is too much of a drop off. He is perpetually injured or dealing with an injury. When Diggs is healthy, he’s boom or bust as well. Don’t think I would do this trade


#4

@swissarmyaccountant if the season so far is any indication, I would argue Kamara>Shady. Remember to disregard past seasons and look at what this year’s usage/production is.

Shady’s team just pulled a brand new red zone target limiting the already small RZ usage Shady gets.

Kamara has been getting more and more touches every week and has done more per touch.

These two players have similar floors and ceilings, but NO’s offense scores more.


#5

Oh I’m not taking past seasons into account. Shady’s usage isn’t just great, its tremendous. He doesn’t share time with anyone. If this season is any indication it’s actually Shady > Kamara and its not particularly close…haha

Shady has 149 carries, 38 catches, and 3 TDs, 788 yds/scrimmage (including the crappy fluke of a game last week with 25 yards and no catches)
Kamara has 52 carries, 37 catches, and 5 TDs, 652 yds/scrimmage

Kamara also still splits carries with Ingram, and has literally been out touched by Ingram in every single game this year (except last week when they were tied). I like Kamara’s RZ usage more for sure, but TDs in general are somewhat difficult to predict and count on. If I had to guess I would say that Kamara ends the year with a few more TDs than Shady, but I don’t think Shady will end the year with just 3 TDs…Lastly, the playoff schedule for Shady is beautiful (Colts, Miami, NE)


#6

Thanks for the input. I have NO desire to get rid of Kamara. Any other ideas on getting rid of Hopkins? The name value is not trumping the fear of QB situation in my league. I actually have Jordy as well but Jordy/Hopkins 2 for 1 isnt really getting me anywhere due to the dumpster fires at QB.


#7

I agree with everything on Shady, one of probably only 3-4 RBs I would consider if Kamara is leaving my team. I just dont know who to target to get out of Hopkins. My team in a 12 PPR is below.
QB Tyrod
RB Lev
RB Kamara
WR Cooks
WR Hopkins
FLEX Parker/Sanu/Jordy/Riddick
TE Engram

Do I just role Hopkins’ massive target share and passing volume on awful team out there as a WR2/flex with the strength around him? REEEEALLLYYY loved this team 8 days ago with a healthy Watson haha.


#8

I don’t think he’s relegated a WR2/flex now by any means. I still think he’s a low end WR1. I think people are overreacting. That is a bad team, and they are going to throw ALOT because they are down. He’ll get targets and TDs. Instead of getting 21 ppg, I think he gets like 16 ppg from here on out, which would put him top 8 this season (down season for WRs). The only thing that really really sucks with Hopkins is his week 15 matchup is Jacksonville…So that’s a big bummer. No WR does great against them.

Unless I can get low end WR1 value for Hopkins (I can’t because people are freaking out), I’m holding on to him and I’ll bite the bullet and play him week 15 in a crappy matchup


#9

What are your thoughts on the above trade with Dez instead of Diggs? Little injury bug it seems, but w Zeke out…?


#10

I think that’s a better trade for sure. I’m not up to date on the Dez injury to be honest. If he’s good to go and won’t be hampered going forward I think that’s a fine trade.


#11

@swissarmyaccountant, Shady and Kamara are 1 fantasy point different. I would say that is pretty close. Karama is doing this with 100 less touches, and now he will be getting more. Bottom line is that Shady hasn’t been that good this season. The only reason he is an RB1 is other player’s injuries.

Also as a Texan, we tend to run the ball more. I know we threw a lot more last week, but I suspect we game plan differently now. The defense is still strong.

@mck6432, what about Michael Thomas? He is a pretty safe floor guy with more upside than Hopkins now.


#12

Welp our trade deadline was actually at the start of the game last night :roll_eyes: so I will be rolling with kamara / Hopkins. appreciate your thoughts here


#13

Could not care less that Kamara is doing it with less touches. Change of pace guys almost all of the time have better yards/carry and yards/touch numbers than the starter. Alfred Morris is averaging over 8 YPC this season…that doesn’t mean anything.
Also,100% of the time in fantasy football you want your players to get more touches in fantasy football than less touches…that is always true. Shady gets MANY more touches than Kamara, and he has very few TDs (an presumably will move towards his mean). Shady had a crazy bad game last week and still has more catches than Kamara on the season. There is not an argument to be had that Shady’s usage is not more desirable than Kamara’s usage.

Also, it is objectively wrong that “Shady hasn’t been that good this season.” If Kamara has 1 less point than Shady, then Kamara “must not be that good this season” as well. There is a reason that every expert and fantasy guy and podcast out there every single week has Shady ranked above Kamara, and is always projected for 5+ more points/week than Kamara


#14

Dang, sorry man. I think you’ll be fine with those two though. I really do think Hopkins will still be a WR1 (although this week Miller is primed for a big game)


#15

@swissarmyaccountant there is always an argument brother. AP last night is a great example of how situation is the key.

Kamara was drafted low, McCoy very high, so if you have Kamara you likely have another RB1 as well, so you are matching the highest RB2 against an opponent. Where as with McCoy you are matching him up as the lowest RB1. FF is all about matchups and Kamara wins his, McCoy has been losing his with 3 or 4 exceptions.

But I have a solution, Waterbet!! Kamara Vs. McCoy straight up.


#16

“You want more touches” doesn’t mean “you are always better when you have more touches.” It means that when evaluating players and projecting points, it is true 100% of the time that “more touches” > “less touches”. The matchup thing makes no sense at all…Marvin Jones is a WR2/flex. He will win that matchup most weeks. Antionio is a WR1 and will often lose that matchup sometimes. That doesn’t mean I want Marcin Jones over Brown…that’s a silly argument.

Not sure what a “waterbet” means?


#17

lol How do you follow the show without knowing what a waterbet is? The Ballers have this app, it is like a wheel of fortune wheel that you spin. If you lose a bet you spin the wheel and it decides in which way you are to be splashed with water. It is a fun type of bet where nobody really loses anything. You post a picture of the splashing.

What I mean is expectation vs production. RB1 vs RB1, RB2 vs RB2, WR1 vs WR1 etc… If you took McCoy in the 1st round you had him as your RB1, but someone else’s RB1 probably did better than yours most weeks. That means another player in your lineup had to win their matchup AND make up for the deficit McCoy got you. However, if you took Kamara it was as an RB3 or bench spot. He has been outperforming his matchups consistantly. That means he has been the guy that can win you weeks, where as McCoy has been losing you weeks. Thus, Kamara’s value has been worth more toward a win.

Change of pace backs do get a better YPC, but usually they get different defensive looks. NO’s offense is very difficult to defend, so teams haven’t been able to give Ingram and Kamara different looks. Looks like Kamara is the real deal and I expect his role to expand.


#18

And Thielen is more valuable based on where you took him in the draft than Julio. That’s fine if you’re talking about value, but not if you’re comparing which players you want whoever will score more if all else is equal. You can take your value all day, I get the concept of that. But the guy who scores more points is worth more when you are actually playing the game.

Regardless, probably splitting hairs. Both are RB1s or borderline RB1s. We can just agree to disagree.

I haven’t really followed the show too closely. I listen on Tuesday’s for waiver day every week, but I enjoy the forums to give/receive advice.