lets do a quick number crunch.
in 2015 when luck was hurt the last 7 weeks of the year, that game us a pretty good sample size to go off of to see what TY would be like without luck. it came down to this…
with luck: 5 Receptions 78 yards and .33 TDs a game
without luck: 4 Receptions 60 yards and .28 TDs a game.
so with luck full year: 80 Receptions 1248 5-6 TDs
without luck full year: 64 Receptions 960 yards 4-5 TDs
that is a sizable drop. 16 less receptions, for 300 less yards and 1 TD less. thats like a WR3 youre picking up in the first to second round. i dont think he really becomes worth it. now, he did have good games against bad defenses that year, so luckily their first 6 games are pretty much a cake walk. lions, cowboys, steelers, bengals, rams, and cardinals. 4 out of 6 are pretty easy. so those numbers should go up. its all about the risks, are you willing to take the risk that if luck does miss the first 6 games, will hilton still produce? i think there is a good chance he will, only because of the bad secondaries. and with the talent going behind him, if you need/want your second pick to be a WR, hes just about the only one you can take. im kind of talking myself in and out of it, but for the most part im still going to do it. because i believe in matchups, and i can deal with 2 out of 6 bad games, and the getting luck back and it not really mattering. he will still end up over 1000 yards, and over 70 receptions. for probably about 6 TDs. and at the 2.07 (in PPR) im willing to take that as my number 1. it just means i have to target the safe guys like crabtree and tate later on.