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TY Hilton: Buy or Beware?


#1

Hello,

I have a few questions regarding the status of TY Hilton as a tier 2 WR, given that Andrew Luck may be on the PUP list to start the season. Is he worth his current asking price? Will he able to repeat his performance with Donte Moncrief now somewhat healthy?

Thank you


#2

Where you are drafting him likely he is your 1 or 2. If you 1, then no because of the risk with Luck. He hasn’t played well with an injury in the past. If he is your 2, then depends on the price.


#3

In my eyes he goes from a high tier 2 WR with a healthy Luck to a low tier 2 without Luck. I’d proceed with caution, hopefully he slides down in the second round. I’m just not confident in Luck’s ability to start the season healthy and stay that way.


#4

You have to think Hilton is pretty safe. Ever since Hilton became a starter in 2013, he has recorded over 1000 yards and at least 5 touchdowns every season. That includes 2015, when Luck only played 7 games and Moncrief was mostly healthy. Last year he was the nfl receiving yardage leader and wr5 for both standard and ppr formats. He’s currently being drafted as the wr10 at the end of the second round so you have some allowance for regression built in to his draft price.

Don’t get me wrong, Luck’s health is certainly something to watch, but if we have every indication that Luck is going to be 100% soon but might miss a game or two to get him there, I think Hilton’s draft price is very fair. However, if we start hearing about a more prolonged absence or that Luck isn’t going to be right this season, I think you’d have to drop him down into the wr2 mess.


#5

I mean, 1000 yards and 5 TDs is not worth a 2nd round pick.


#6

No, 1000 yards and 5 tds isn’t worth a second round pick, but that is Hilton’s absolute floor, not his projection for this coming season. 90 receptions, 1450 yards and 6 tds is probably worth a first round pick, and that’s what he showed us just last season.

And about the minimum 1000 yards and 5 tds he has had over the last 4 seasons: the same could not be said for Mike Evans or Dez Bryant, both of whom are being drafted ahead of Hilton. And we are including in that statistic Hilton’s first year as a fulltime starter, and an absolute worst case scenario year where Luck missed more than half the season.

The point is, Hilton’s floor is incredibly high.


#7

I agree with your floor, but I really don’t see him breaking 1200 yards. The Colts have added a lot of really good options in Mack, Aiken, others, and now have a healthy Moncrief.
If Luck isn’t healthy, than you are looking at Tolzien or Morris. Tolzien is more likely the backup and he throws short, like >10 yards short. That is not TY’s bread and butter, he is a 15 yard guy.

I can see him dropping to 120 targets for your floor, but I do think it will be less than 130. That puts him at 75-76 receptions and around 1200 yards assuming they don’t run him on shorter routes. Not bad at all, but not my WR1. Top 15 in PPR, top 20 in .5 PPR, and top 25 in standard.


#8

To be clear is the 1200 yards and/or top 15, 20, 25 talking without Luck all year? And is the 15/20/25 overall or just wr? Because he’s cleared 1345 yards 2 out of the last 3 years, so outside of a significant injury to either Luck or Hilton he’s pretty well a lock to break 1200 yards. I can tell you that all 3 ballers have Hilton projected significantly over 1200 yards…

Aiken is a depth receiver and nothing more; I think you’ll find his playing time and targets will come at the expense of Dorsett. As for Mack, I see him increasingly taking away snaps from an aging and increasingly ineffective Gore. Neither of these additions should have any major effects on Hilton’s value one way or the other. Not to mention this off-season also saw the departure of Dwayne Allen, so those are targets and primarily tds that will need to be redistributed.

Coincidentally: this article dropped about an hour ago. Just an opinion piece but hey


#9

I was talking worst case possible floor, and it was for WRs. That is also with an injured Luck, whether he plays or not.

Mack’s usage will not take anything from Gore. Mack is not Gore’s backup, that is Turbin. I’ll read the article.


#10

I really feel like Andrew Luck will not be put on the pup list. If he misses the first six games of the Season, Indianapolis will be in a deep hole and likely not make the playoffs. As a team I believe they will keep him off the pup list so that he is available at the moment he’s ready to play. If you can hold out for the first few weeks if luck misses anytime, I think Hilton is still a great pick


#11

No chance he is on PUP, but that doesn’t mean he won’t miss games or play injured.

@Kaiser, I did read the article, but I think they are leaving out some factors. CBs stop Hilton by jamming him at the line. That means Hilton needs the play to develop to get into space, in which case I don’t think he gets that ball with Doyle and Mack now taking short yardage passes. If they miss that jam Hilton is open assuming the safety doesn’t cheat forward and do a little ball hawking. In that case I think Moncrief gets the checkdown.

They have a lot of plays/audibles to get Hilton in space or identify when the CB is out of position. It is also possible that with the short yardage guys the Colts draw less blitzes and give the QB time. With time I think Hilton is crazy dangerous, we will have to see how the O-line does.


#12

Ok well Gore is a whole other conversation, I’ll just say that I had him everywhere last year and appreciated the free rb2 but his ineffectiveness was clear, and I am not going to have him anywhere in 2017.

While I do appreciate that Mack is more of a scatback than a between the tackles runner, I don’t expect Indianapolis to roll out many 2rb sets, therefore to the extent that Mack is getting playing time, Gore is losing it. Gore had 39 receptions last year which is nothing to sneeze at; that number will drop considerably. I expect we will see Gore’s role be reduced this year in favour of both Mack and Turbin.

Getting back to Hilton, I think you under estimate Hilton’s talent, but that’s why this is a game of prediction and not a game of certainty. The clear wr1 in a pass happy offence like Indy’s is always going to have value. I’m keeping my eye on Luck’s status but as of now I will happily take Hilton at his adp. I guess only time will tell :slightly_smiling_face:


#13

@Kaiser, I 100% agree with the RB passing situation. Mack might see 40 receptions.

I think our disconnect is the target share. In my 14 team league I don’t want him as my WR1.


#14

lets do a quick number crunch.

in 2015 when luck was hurt the last 7 weeks of the year, that game us a pretty good sample size to go off of to see what TY would be like without luck. it came down to this…

with luck: 5 Receptions 78 yards and .33 TDs a game

without luck: 4 Receptions 60 yards and .28 TDs a game.

so with luck full year: 80 Receptions 1248 5-6 TDs

without luck full year: 64 Receptions 960 yards 4-5 TDs

that is a sizable drop. 16 less receptions, for 300 less yards and 1 TD less. thats like a WR3 youre picking up in the first to second round. i dont think he really becomes worth it. now, he did have good games against bad defenses that year, so luckily their first 6 games are pretty much a cake walk. lions, cowboys, steelers, bengals, rams, and cardinals. 4 out of 6 are pretty easy. so those numbers should go up. its all about the risks, are you willing to take the risk that if luck does miss the first 6 games, will hilton still produce? i think there is a good chance he will, only because of the bad secondaries. and with the talent going behind him, if you need/want your second pick to be a WR, hes just about the only one you can take. im kind of talking myself in and out of it, but for the most part im still going to do it. because i believe in matchups, and i can deal with 2 out of 6 bad games, and the getting luck back and it not really mattering. he will still end up over 1000 yards, and over 70 receptions. for probably about 6 TDs. and at the 2.07 (in PPR) im willing to take that as my number 1. it just means i have to target the safe guys like crabtree and tate later on.