Upside TE Punts?

Full PPR.

I totally punted my TE position after missing out on Higbee late… I ended up grabbing Gronk at the end of the draft (I was tilted). I’m looking to snag some TE upside but the FA landscape looks bleak…

Potential Pickups:
A.Firkser - Worse version of Jonnu? Or potential TD machine?
Jonnu/Henry - IMO This would be THE target… if there weren’t 2 of them.
CJ.Uzomah - Torn Achilles scares me. A LOT of mouths to feed in a mediocre offense.
B.Jarwin - Has a more “clear” path to upside than Uzomah… but less talent IMO.

Then you got a mix of old vets and low upside guys who… honestly, I’d rather just roll out Gronk for the potential random boom game he has once in awhile.

Thoughts? Is there a specific reason nobody likes Jarwin as a breakout candidate anymore? Also worth noting, I did take a flier on the Trey Lance stash (Herbert stash worked for me last year), but I’d be willing to drop him and Gronk to stash 2 TE fliers.

Jonnu or Jarwin are the only real options here to me. I’d lean Jonnu. I’d also be looking at the Chargers with Cook and Parham as options.

Don’t drop Lance tho.

Gronk might be fine enough.

Jonnu has an opportunity to be good but gronk we know will be a factor with Brady. We know he is a lock for 5td minimum in my opinion.

I’d keep my eye on the te options but I don’t think any are obvious superior options to gronk.

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I really want to love Jonnu with Mac at QB now… Henry is a threat but I still wouldn’t be shocked to see Jonnu outpace him in targets for this team this year. I really just hesitate because I’m holding Harris and Meyers as well so it feels pretty bad to be so heavy on a projected lower scoring offense. Jarwin seems like a perfect post-hype sleeper… very little has changed there outside of Schultz potentially having a role IMO. I’m not interested in Cook at all, but I think he’ll still do enough to kill any value Parham might have had.

Gronk is a pure floor play. I dont think he has any real upside… I wouldn’t be shocked to see him break into the top 10 again if he has a “Jimmy Graham” type of season where he finishes with like 12 TDs on 40 receptions lol… but I’m looking for more like top 5 breakout type upside. It’s also worth noting that OJ Howard will be back this season and he was actually out-producing Gronk (in a limited sample) before the Achilles tear.

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I agree. I just don’t think your options have the upside you’re looking for. Jonnu might if he does well be an equivalent to hunter henry on the chargers. But he’s got Henry as competition limiting him. Firkser is on a low passing volume team from years previous and targets are largely tied up to aj and Julio. Uzomah I personally have no interest in. Finally jarwin is in crowded offense that he has decent competition in.

Gronk is definitely the floor play but I’m genuinely not convinced the ceiling of these guys is worth reaching for

Uzomah was the TE5 in PPR points per game last season, and he should have top 10 potential again.

Firkser should step into the pass-catching TE role vacated by Jonny Smith.

Those are the only real options here who aren’t mired in a Tight End By Committee situation.

OJ Howard was axually doing pretty well last season before he got hurt.

Over the past 3 years, Kelce has the highest average TDs per season among TEs with 9.0. Jared Cook is 2nd with 7.3 TDs per season.

Henry is worth a stab now with Mac getting the job.

i understand the Pats have 2 tight ends but heres the deal. they dont have a ton of fire power at wr, and they paid both of the tight ends handsomely so they will be using both of them. i also anticipate they will be a fairly run heavy team with lots of 2 tight end sets.

so why henry over jonnu? simply because i think hes a better receiver than jonnu and the numbers in their career show that to be the case.

i see jonnu as more of a blocker, swiss army knife kind of guy who gets moved around a lot to do different things.

but i see henry as more of true receiving tight end. he will probably get snaps lined up out wide and be targeted more.

if i have to choose between the 2 i will choose Henry all day.

That’s the beauty of it though–you don’t! You can choose from the pool of TEs who have the potential to be in the top 10 instead if you want.

@AxeElf

your logic is kinda flawed though.

just because Frisker is stepping into Jonnu’s role doesnt make him top 10. hes on a run heavy team who just added Julio Jones to go with AJ Brown. not a lot of touches to go around there, and its not like Jonnu set the fantasy world on fire in that role anyway.

with Henry you do have another tight end in the mix, but also a lot less going on at WR. the passing game will run through the tight ends in New England more so than it will on most other teams. they didnt pay those guys to play patty cakes on the bench and block.

It’s Firkser.

Sure, but it’s not like they just added 100 targets to the WRs; they also lost Corey Davis and his 92 targets. It’s probly going to be largely the same offense we’ve been seeing from the Titans, with MAYBE a little more passing to keep Henry fresh (but that wouldn’t be a bad thing for Firkser).

Jonnu and Firkser split 118 targets last season–65 to Smith and 53 to Firkser. They combined for 80 receptions, 835 yards, and 9 TDs last season. If one player were to get them all, guess who would have been the TE3 last year?

And THAT’S what will make him top 10.

They did in fact pay them to block–this is not your father’s Patriots any more. Last season, the team passed for 1,500 fewer yards than it had averaged in the rest of the previous decade under Brady, and rushed for 500 more yards than it had averaged over the same decade. The Patriots are not a passing team any longer; they will win with defense and a ball-control offense.

I get the allure of Uzomah but that also came in like a 2 game sample size iirc… And the torn achilles on top of drafting Chase has me doubting his upside.

Firkser I do like… I mean he doesnt have the athletic profile I like to see from a flier TE but he’s in a better situation than most of these guys.

I mean obviously all of these guys have issues otherwise theyd be on rosters lol.

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The intrigue of Jonnu (to me anyway) is just that McDaniels seemed to be using him all over the place… running end-arounds and taking handoffs from FB… granted this was with Henry missing most of the preseason with injuries… But it wouldnt shock me if Jonnu ended up as the target leader on this team either… which, to your point, could still be a relatively low target total lol. I could see a potential for him to be utilized creatively in the redzone the way the chiefs utilize Kelce in unique ways.

I get your points about him, and you’re probably right that he wont make the top 10… But I could see a path.

strongly disagreed on all points. you make some big stretches and omit some important context to reach your conclusions.

yes, the titans did lose Corey Davis and his targets. Julio Jones takes those targets and then some. he is many tiers above Davis in terms of talent and they will feature him as such. Jones and Brown will make up the majority of the passing offense and Henry will demand a ton of touches as well.

now as far as Firsker gobbling up ALL of the tight end touches, thats also a huge stretch. is there any offense in the NFL where one tight end gets ALL of the targets and catches outside of the few teams that have elite tight ends? thats not going to happen.

as far as the Patriots offense goes… your stats are meaningless when they are going to be transitioning from Cam Newton to Mac Jones. Cam is a running QB who has a completely different skill set than Jones.

they will still be a running team but gone will be the days of the read option and in are the days of feeding off the play action. they brought in bourne, algohlor and 2 high paid tight ends. this team will indeed be throwing the ball more than they did under Cam, and more redzone opportunities will be opened up with Cam no longer vulturing rushing attempts inside the 10.

there have also been years under the Billicheck regime where two tight ends have been featured heavily in the passing game. the precedent is there for it to happen. and while im not comparing Mac to Brady. he is very similar type of player. so i do expect a shift back to a more classic style of offense that they ran with Brady.

i could easily see the Pats featuring a very balanced attack, using lots of play action out of 2 tight end sets and lining the tight ends out wide. even with the addition of a couple wrs and with Meyers still involved, there are no wrs who absolutely demand targets like Julio and Brown do. there will be targets to go around for both Jonnu and Henry, with Henry being the better wr of the two. lets remember Jonnu has only topped 400 yards in a season once.

im not saying Firsker has no upside or that he will be bad…

Im saying i think you are completely upselling Firsker and completely dismissing Henry. in reality they are both probably about the same in terms of where they will fall.

i personally prefer Henry’s upside but hes not someone i would want as a TE 1, and neither is Firsker. they are both solid fliers to take as your TE 2 if your TE 1 is not one of the top tier guys.

It’s Firkser.

Knowing how to spell the guy’s name is not an insignificant step toward manufacturing the illusion that you know what you’re talking about.

Anyway, it’s not a debate; I was just letting you know what was going to happen. You can do with that knowledge what you will.

Axe Elf never argues; only educates.

I’d look probably look Jonnu or Firkser to start for potential season-long TE1 value, but Jared Cook is a name that I’ve gone with in a few leagues where people were taking second TE’s and I put it off until the last round.

I’d probably wait to see how things shake out in Dallas with Jarwin/Schultz, but I just doubt either one of those hit to be a comfortable weekly starter.

Uzomah wouldn’t really be a thought here. Sure - keep an eye on him and his matchups on the wire if you’re going to stream the position this year looking for a sneaky top ten TE finish for the week, but two games and a blown Achilles doesn’t scream season-long upside with those other guys available.

Given the choice, I’d go Jonnu to start.

Gerald Everett. Current OC with Seahawks was his TE coach with Rams and Russell likes him in an offense that is going to be able to support more than just the two stud WRs. Russell threw 40 tds last year, only half of those were to DK and Lockett. If Everett can get just five of those off target touchdowns this year he will be sniffing a top 12 finish.

If the best-case scenario is a finish outside the top 12, then I’m not sure why you’re making this recommendation.

I’m not that optimistic, myself. Will Dissly has had just as much hype in years past–and then he would get hurt–but he’s still there as well. If he stays healthy, each of them will be half of a top 12 TE, as TODAY’S NEWS suggests:

"…Everett has a slight edge over Dissly on the depth chart, but for fantasy purposes, you might want to temper your expectations for either player.

“Dissly and Everett were on the field together for the first time in Seattle’s third preseason game. They split the snaps pretty evenly, 12 for Everett and 10 for Dissly. [Everett] has some upside, but with a fairly even split between him and Dissly, it looks like the Seahawks tight end committee is more of an asset to the team than it will be to fantasy.”

He asked for upside punts.

What happens if things fall just right and the guy does something like Ebron did with the Colts where he didn’t have a lot of volume but got double digit TDs. That’s not outside of the realm of possibility here.

I think Dissly is largely just a guy now. He had catastrophic season ending injuries back to back years and then last year when he was ‘relatively healthy’ only managed the same stats in 12 starts 16 games as he did in 6 games the year before.

I realize you don’t hold this against guys ( see CJ in Cincy) but Dissly was pedestrian last year and there is a path for Everett via a guy has worked with him previously and obviously wanted to bring him here when the opportunity to do so came up.

Presumably a couple thousand yards passing and around 20 touchdowns spread around between a RB, a couple of extra WR then I wouldn’t mind a chuck of that. There is lots of upside there. Lockett and DK should keep defenses honest and when that have tried to take one of those two away then Wilson has made them pay but spreading the ball around. Everett fits in right there towards the top of those options, not towards the bottom.

This is a fair point, but usage and verbiage from the coaching staff so far suggests a pretty even split.

We shall see…

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