Using UDK Target Data -- are my assumptions dumb?

I’ve been digging into some of the UDK target & trying to figure out how to weaponize it to highlight specific players to pursue / avoid in drafts. I’m building on a couple assumptions, but if they’re sketchy, then obviously the conclusions will be sketchy too… so any input / warnings are appreciated!

Assumption #1: It is a good sign when a WR’s yardage % exceeds his target %.

Generally speaking, yardage seems like a less-fluky stat … and a talented WR seems likely to exceed his target rate.

Assumption #2: It is a bad sign when a WR’s TD % significantly exceeds his target %.

Good players are probably good at scoring (#analysis)… but TDs aren’t as sticky year-to-year, so a big gap here is a bit of a red flag. Conversely, if a WR way underperformed his target share in terms of TDs, that seems likely to correct a little.

A few quick examples:

  • Robert Woods & Cooper Kupp have super similar target & yardage rates – Kupp’s 22/25 is slightly better than Woods’ 23/24, but they’re essentially similar. BUT, Kupp got 46% of the TDs (highest in the NFL) to Woods’ 9% (crazy low) … Woods is the one to get in 2020, esp. at ADP.

  • Anthony Miller comes out looking good on both counts – especially if Foles beats out Trubisky, he could be a really nice later-round flier.

  • DeAndre Hopkins was fine, but nothing special in his yardage & TD rates relative to target share – he was mostly propped up by the 2nd highest target rate. Which, sure, he earned – he’s a monster; this isn’t a “Hopkins sucks” take. But moving to a spread-the-wealth Cards offense, during a COVID offseason… might not be great for his 2020 value?

Long post, I know… sorry! But if there’s a big flaw I’m overlooking, I’d love to hear about it! Thanks everyone