Valuing Draft Pick Trading

Just wondering how people go about trading draft picks in their leagues where it is allowed. I am in a 12 team, 2-keepers per team, PPR league where draft pick trading is rampant.

I just don’t know how to go about properly valuing draft picks, my instinct is to take the best draft pick in the draft and if i give up late picks it doesn’t matter since they are most likely a crap-shoot anyways.

For example, I was recently offered this trade:

Give up:
Pick 19 (Round 2)
Pick 43 (Round 4)
Pick 102 (Round 9)

Receive:
Pick 15 (Round 2)
Pick 57 (Round 5)
Pick 124 (Round 11)

I have the 6th pick in the draft and haven’t made any draft pick trades yet with keepers in the 6th and 10th rd. Would this trade be worth moving up to 15th? Of course I know it probably depends on available players but let’s say hypothetically it’s the difference between getting Dalvin Cook/Damien Williams at 15 vs Freeman/Jacobs at 19 (this is taking into account keepers and who will be available)

I’ve done the draft pick trade technique before and it gets a little tricky and confusing. Everyone values number 1 picks a lot more than any other pick. So what I always try to do is have 8 picks in the first 6 rounds (1QB, 3RBs, 3WRs, 1TE). This fills my starters and I draft the rest of my roster with young/upside players with breakout potential.

To do this, I usually trade away my 1st round pick, I know sitting at pick 6 you have your eyes set on someone, but I could trade that 1st pick away for an additional 2nd and 4th rounder for example. Then I usually take my 7/9 picks for a 4th and 8/10 for 5th or 6th rounder. So your draft looks like:
2,2
3
4,4,4,
5,5
6
11
12…

When you offer a trade, you’ll have to offer it to everyone in the league pretty much. Eventually you’ll get someone to bite, but you can’t send offers to like 1-2 guys and expect to get the job done.

The other strategy I’ve seen is the “kick-the-can” strategy. Basically pairing picks to get an earlier pick and kicking the empty draft rounds back but continually doing this. I find this more difficult and risky because, like I said earlier, it’s harder to trade up than it is to trade down. Basically you take like your 2nd & 4th and trade for a first. The extra 1st round pick covers your lost 2nd, so now you have to cover your 4th by trading your 6th & 8th for a 4th for example. Then this continues and you “kick-the-can” as far down the draft as possible.

But to answer your question about the trade you listed, I don’t like making those trades to move up just a few spots. The difference between the 2nd round picks is going to be a lot less than the difference between the 4th & 5th round picks or 9th & 11th round.

Currently you’re looking at James Conner (15) vs Dalvin Cook (19) compared to Andrew Luck (43) vs Kenyan Drake (57) (RBs around Luck are Henry/Kerryon).

picks are super fun to trade, because you can do some super sneaky things with them. you throw numbers out there and everyone just thinks of that value. pick 54 and pick 102 traded for pick 60, 70, and 80 (off the top of the head numbers so im just spit balling here) may seem to be better for the guy who gets 3 picks, but if you look at team makeup and use mock drafts to your advantage you can make a trade like that… and get better. because then you can put names to those numbers and go oh, i can give up these picks because thats in an area of the draft where i dont value any of the players, but this spot and this spot is perfect for where i draft and what im trying to build with players X, Y and Z.

this is not how to do it every time, but its a fun way of doing things and it does work out if your value on players is right. either way, you need to do some mocks to give picks player names to adjust your value, because anyone elses value be damned. obviously i dont mean that strictly because using other peoples values to your benefit is a big part of trading, i just mean when it comes to the inevitable backlash of people giving you shit for a trade that fits you really well but isnt the common standard haha.

Doesn’t seem worth it to me, giving up 4th and 9th round picks for 5th and 11th round just to move up 4 spots in round 2. If it was the 1st round and you were trying to move up to grab one of the big 4 RBs, I would say go for it, but the talent at pick 19 compared to pick 15 are not that far apart, generally in the same tier, it is not worth moving down in the other rounds for.

Based on current ADP, you can see how the talent is comparable in the second round, but drops off from round 4 to 5 and 9 to 11:
Pick 19 - Damien Williams/Juju Smith-Schuster/Travis Kelce
Pick 43 - Sony Michel/Julian Edelman/Andrew Luck
Pick 102 - Peyton Barber/Geronimo Allison/Cam Newton
vs.
Pick 15 - Dalvin Cook/Odell Beckham Jr/Todd Gurley
Pick 57 - Derrius Guice/Chris Godwin/Deshaun Watson
Pick 124 - Austin Ekeler/Mecole Hardman/Ben Rothlisberger