The Deep Stream – 2019 Week 4
Welcome to the first-ever official installment of The Deep Stream, your weekly resource to help you navigate even the roughest streaming waters. Every week in this series I will share matchup projections for the next six weeks for each of the streaming positions (QB, TE, DST) along with recommendations to help you optimize your streaming strategy. You can find a more detailed introduction to The Deep Stream in last week’s post.
As a reminder, The Deep Stream model contains math-only projections using each player’s prior performance and their opponent’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. It provides a map to help you find favorable and unfavorable matchups and is a powerful tool to aid in your analysis. But, while powerful, it is still just a tool and should not be used in isolation or taken as iron-clad rankings. All scoring data is from FantasyPros with standard scoring settings. With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive in.
Here are this week’s top Deep Stream QB adds:
Daniel Jones (86% available). Two Giants are likely to be the hottest waiver adds this week – we all saw that coming, right? Even though you’ll probably have to pay, and the sample size is small, all indications are that MANiel Jones could become an every-week starter and is worth the FAAB investment.
Andy Dalton (75% available). Dalton is the QB12 on the year, but it hasn’t always been pretty, so it’s understandable if you can’t bring yourself to stomach him as your year-long QB. However, with matchups against Pittsburg and Arizona on tap the next two weeks, it may be time to hold your nose and click the Claim button.
If you have the bench space, these stashes could net you some cheap production in future weeks.
Jameis Winston (42% available), Week 5, projected to be the QB4. He may be harder to acquire after a solid Week 3 outing, but if he’s available he has a juicy matchup with New Orleans in two weeks. If you cannot get him for free this week, be sure to check again next week as he has a tough matchup with the Rams coming on Sunday.
Kirk Cousins (55% available), Week 5, projected to be the QB7. Cousin’s prospects for the next six weeks overall are uninspiring, but a Week 5 tilt with the Giants is appealing. He is more likely to be available than Winston, but as with Winston he has a tough matchup this week, so if’s he’s not immediately available be sure to check again after the smoke clears from Sunday’s game with the Bears.
Gardner Minshew (93% available), Week 6, projected to be the QB6. The next two weeks for the Secret Garden will probably be tough-sledding, but a Week 6 bout with QB-friendly New Orleans could make him worth a temporary spot on your bench.
These QBs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring. Consider trading or moving on for more promising alternatives:
Josh Allen (72% owned, YTD rank: QB9, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: QB20). Just in time for everyone to finally get on board the Josh Stallion stagecoach, he has two brutal matchups and a bye week in front of him. Things start to look good again after that with games against Miami and Washington in Weeks 7 and 9, respectively, but for the next three weeks you should plan to leave The Stallion stabled.
QBs to consider trading away:
Aaron Rodgers (99% owned, YTD rank: QB22, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: QB21). His production has been abysmal so far, and things do not look any better for the next several weeks, so best to get something now if you can based on Rodgers’ name value.
Phillip Rivers (79% owned, YTD rank: QB14, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: QB24). Rivers has been a fringe QB1/2 through three weeks, but after his upcoming game with the Miami Fish-Tankers, things look extremely bleak. If you have other options for this week, see if you can trade him now to someone who needs a Week 4 play. Otherwise, be prepared to move on via trade or drop next week.
Baker Mayfield (94% owned, YTD rank QB23, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: QB30). Jared Goff (90% owned, YTD rank QB20, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: QB32). Both are highly-owned with name value but not much else. Get something in return now if you can and consider both to be drop candidates if not.
A note on Tight End projections: Tight end scoring is relatively low, but has high variance, resulting in some negative point projections. I present those projections as-is, not because I expect these players to put up a negative stat line, but to show the relative strength of each matchup based on the numbers.
This week’s top Deep Stream TE adds:
Will Dissly (66% available). Dissly is the TE7 on the year and this week his team is playing Arizona , a team that has spent the last two seasons treating opposing tight ends as if they were wearing invisibility cloaks. Sure to be one of the most contested adds, his TE4 projection for Weeks 4-9 likely makes him worth the cost.
Daniel Fells (99% available). Fells and Jordan Akins have split targets evenly this year, and Akins scored two TDs last week, but Fells has the lead in snaps and is probably the tight end to target if you want to get in on Houston’s increasingly tight end-friendly offense.
Tyler Eifert (85% available). Weeks 4 and 5 Eifert is projected to be the TE5 thanks to games against Pittsburg and Arizona . His outlook after that, however, is quite horrifying, so play with confidence but be prepared to replace him starting in Week 6.
One-week “tight end is a raging dumpster fire” desperation play: Mike Gesicki (98% available), If you can stomach it, Gesicki’s relatively soft matchup this week with the Chargers makes him the projected TE6 for the week.
These TEs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring. Consider trading or moving on for more promising alternatives:
Jared Cook (87% owned, YTD rank: TE30, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: TE15). Other than a Week 8 game against Arizona , Cook’s fantasy outlook for the next six weeks is abysmal, and it’s tough to stash a tight end for four weeks, even for a matchup as good as the Cardinals.
T.J. Hockenson (79% owned, YTD rank: TE14, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: TE25). You probably have to hang onto him after paying up to get him off of waivers, but based on three weeks of data we should be very concerned about The Hock’s prospects. If he doesn’t get right in what should be a pass-friendly game script against the Chief’s next week, it might be time to consider cutting your losses.
This week’s top Deep Stream DST adds:
New York Jets (92% available). After a rough outing against the Pats and a bye this week, the Jets are widely available. If you can hold them for one week they are projected to be the DST5 Weeks 5-9, including a Week 9 game against Miami.
San Francisco (47% available). Also on bye this week, the 49’ers are projected to be the DST6 on a points-per-game basis.
Seattle (64% available). Favorable matchups in four of the next six weeks make The Hawks the projected DST10 Weeks 4-9.
Tennessee (41% available), Green Bay (35% available). If they’re available, the projected DST2 and DST3 Weeks 4-9 should be added.
To quote the great fantasy philosopher Matthew Berry: “Just because it’s obvious doesn’t mean it’s not true.” Miami has been a godsend for opposing DSTs, allowing a league-leading 20.7 fantasy points per game, a full 8 points more than the second-worst Tampa Bay Bucs. The following two are rare DST streams that merit multi-week stashes on your bench:
Washington (97% available, plays Miami Week 6), Pittsburg (83% available, plays Miami Week 8)
New Orleans (46% available), Week 5, projected to be the DST4. New Orleans has only been the DST14 so far, but a matchup against the Bucs has them projected for a top performance Week 5.
These DSTs have been performing well and/or are heavily-owned but could be poised for a drop in scoring. Consider trading or moving on for more promising alternatives:
Baltimore (64% owned, YTD rank: DST20, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: DST26). After three weeks, Baltimore’s DST is in unfamiliar territory as the DST20 and are projected to be the DST27 over the next six weeks.
Dallas (86% owned, YTD rank: DST16, Projected rank Weeks 4-9: DST29). A highly-drafted Defense, Dallas’s performance thus far has been (barely) tolerable, but their upcoming matches have them projected to be one of the worst DSTs over the next six weeks.
That’s it for this week. As always please share your feedback in the comments section below or on Twitter. See you in the stream!