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When do the "too high" ADP players become worth it


#1

Hey Footclan, I was doing some mocks last night and started wondering about a few guys. Hearing the ballers talk about guys that the price is too high on makes me nervous to take them at all because I dont want bad value.

So some guys I get nervous based on their ADP:
Josh Gordon (4.09)
Derrick Henry (3.09)
Lamar Miller (4.08)
Ronald Jones (5.04)
Juju (4.07)

These guys all seem a bit high to me so I was hoping to hear others thoughts. Also, I would love to hear if anyone else gets worried about drafting anyone else based on their ADP. Thanks.


#2

Ok I’m not sure where you are getting your adp numbers from; obviously these will change somewhat based on format and source. But let’s assume your numbers are where these guys are going, and we are dealing with a 12 team .5 ppr.

Gordon- 4.09- I would absolute consider drafting Gordon here. This adp puts him in the mid to late wr2 range, and no other wr in this range has the upside of Gordon, which is the wr1 overall as we saw a couple of years ago. That said, there is a lot of risk involved with a Cleveland offence that has a lot of moving parts and the uncertainty with him not yet reporting. To me, though, the risk is worth the potential reward.

Derrick Henry - 3.09 - zero chance I am taking Henry anywhere near here. This is where I might have been looking at Henry if they hadn’t signed Dion Lewis: he is essentially being drafted like he is a close to a bellcow back and I don’t expect that to be the case. I’d probably start considering Henry in the 5th round.

Lamar Miller - 4.08 - this adp puts Miller at the rb2/3 cusp, which I think may be a value if anything. Going into the year, Miller is the clear lead back in what is expected to be a very strong offence. His track record while Watson was playing last year was fringe rb1. The fear is that Foreman comes back and challenges Miller’s lead back status. However, Foreman has been put on the PUP, which means he’s gone for at least 6 weeks. That doesn’t mean that he will be challenging Miller week 7, it means that he can’t even be activated until week 7, and will likely remain on the PUP beyond that. But he’s going to come back eventually and snatch up the starting job, right? I don’t think so. And the reason for that is that no rb has ever returned to form from the Achilles injury that foreman suffered. There is risk, but there’s significant upside and I would be willing to pay this price for Miller.

Ronald Jones - 5.04 - Again, Jones is going in the Rb2/3 cusp, though Jones is a tad to the rb3 side while Millers slightly on the rb2 side. Jones is in the opposite situation to Miller, however, where I expect him to start the year behind Peyton Barber, and we would hope Jones to take over as the year goes on. The problem is, I don’t think Jones is all that good, so I don’t know if he’ll ever garner a lion share of the touches, and I’m not sure the Bucs rushing game is going to be all that valuable to begin with. I would prefer Kerryon Johnson or Marshawn Lynch, both of which are going a round to a round and a half later. That being said, it needs to be remembered runningbacks are going early and often this year, and so guys with big question Mark’s are going earlier than in past years, so I don’t hate someone taking a shot there mid 5th round. For myself though, I think I’d consider Jones mid 6th round.

Juju Smith-schuster- 4.07 - this adp makes Juju a mid to late wr2; that’s exactly where he finished last season. People are a little bit scared because unlike the other wrs going in this range, Juju is not his team’s primary wr, and also has to compete for targets with one of the biggest receiving runningback threats in the league. That being said, in spite of that situation we know he can return that value because he did so with those exact same factors. Even if your expect some regression on Juju’s per-touch performance, Juju didn’t really get involved in the offence until halfway through the year, so his per-touch performance can decline and he can still return value due to what we should project as an increase in volume. Bryant left the offence, but they drafted a talented wr in James Washington; everything I hear is that while Washington will be involved, Juju will retain his role and precedence in the offence. While there is risk, I think the adp is fair.