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Which QB do i pick up to play next week?(mahomes on bye)


#21

Jackson is a better rusher than Cam? The same guy who is the NFL all time leader rushing TD as a QB and is already 2nd in yards behind only Cunningham by about 200 yards and he isn’t even close to retiring yet?

I honestly don’t get the disrespect Cam gets. What he’s done as a rusher at the QB position is unprecedented and is in my eyes, one of if not the best rushing QB of all time. And I didn’t say Cam couldn’t pass. Obviously you have to be able to make some passes in order to play QB in the NFL. I said his passing leaves much to be desired as in he is an average, maybe even below average passer. His career passer rating is around 87 which is average. And his passer rating excluding that one MVP season he had is actually closer to the 70s which is actually just pretty bad. For reference, elite guys are closer to 100 and even the good not great guys like Ryan/Cousins/Rivers are closer to mid 90s.

I actually think its the exact opposite of what you said. Cam’s running game is what opens up his passing game. Without it, his passer rating would be downright atrocious. Defenses have to commit a spy to Cam because he is a running threat on every single play.


#22

I don’t disrespect Cam, at all. He’s a top 3 NFL QB in my book. I simply said Jackson is a better runner than Cam. He has a better 40 time, he can shift and cut better, he has a faster burst than Cam. Simply put, he is a more electric runner than Cam is at most every level.

Cam is still a great runner for a guy that can also pass the ball with length, speed and efficiency. That’s what makes him a more effective runner in the NFL. Defenses must honor his passing game. They can’t load the box and script out his feet, because his arm.

The same cannot be said of Jackson. He is one dimensional and that will be the cause of his eventual downfall IMO.


#23

If we wanted to just quote athletic metrics, there are a laundry list of guys who could be considered “better” runners than Cam. But fact of the matter is, to say someone who has played 2 games in the NFL is a better runner than Cam is a stretch. Production matters and Cam has been producing his entire career. Sure Lamar has better quickness but that doesn’t automatically make him a better rusher. When it’s all said and done, cam will probably lead the NFL in rushes of 20 yards or more. What he lacks in shiftiness and elusiveness, he makes up for in pure strength and breaking through tackles. Quoting metrics is cool but none of it matters until it translates onto the field.

The list of guys with top SPARQ scores and 4.3 40 speed who crumbled in the NFL is longer than the line at your local DMV. Cam is a top 3 Rushing QB in the history of the NFL. Lamar doesn’t even come close. “electric” is just a purely subjective term. To me, Cam is electric, he just does it differently through raw power and strength and that is arguably more effective in the NFL anyway given how fast closing speed is compared to college. Even Jackson acknowledged that fact earlier this year.

I wouldn’t say Cam is an efficient passer. Like I said, he’s average at passing but because he is such a dynamic running threat, it opens up easier passing lanes for him compared to traditional QBs. He has great arm talent, but his accuracy is pretty subpar. He has a <60% career completion % and just above 7ypa. Both of which are mediocre.


#24

We obviously aren’t coming together here and that’s fine Mike. I still have great respect for your opinions and input.

My statements aren’t based on any real metrics or statistics. I’m making a purely observational claim that Jackson is a better “runner” than Cam. This may be a better way to say it actually: if Jackson were the passing threat that Cam Newton is, he would out rush Newton annually in the NFL.

My point is he is not and never will be the passer Newton is and therefore will not be a long term success at this level.


#25

Its possible if Jackson was as good of a passer as Cam he could outrush Cam. Maybe in yards, probably still no on TD. Hard to say though cause we won’t get to see that side so I can’t really say he will or he won’t. Closing speed in NFL is just much faster which is why I think Cam just translates better into production cause he consistently sheds tackles all day. And if you think about it, we already have the evidence of what jackson’s ceiling could be, its Vick and Cam has outproduced Vick who if you want to go by observation, is a more “electric” and “dynamic” runner than Jackson even but that’s just imo.


#26

Ok I believe we’re on the same page now. Bottom line: Cam is great NFL QB to have in fantasy; Jackson is not.


#27

I didn’t buy Jackson as an NFL qb in college. He has the athletic ability but his decision making and accuracy are both suspect. I do think he compares well to a guy like Michael Vick (not bad), but also to a guy like Vince Young (ouch). In ATL a young Vick got by early in his career just taking the first read and then tucking and running if it wasn’t open. I see Lamar with a lot of the same tendencies in this small sample size. The INTs he threw were on passes that most NFL QBs would know were ill advised to take in the first place. The league has changed a lot since Vick’s day so I am not sure if this will work long term but Lamar does have the ability to make people miss so he should be able to beat man coverage with his legs and even the ability to beat having a spy on him.

Not a pro qb unless he learns and gets better like Vick did in Philly. I don’t think he can. His wonderlic score was 13, which puts it more in line with Young’s retake score of 14 (he scored 6 the first time) than the 20 that Vick scored.

As for fantasy, depending on your league I would want his floor from the rushing. He was started this week in our league by the Dalton owner that has streamed QB match ups. In two starts they have went run heavy to help the defense and protect Lamar. He has went for over 100 yards and over 70 yards rushing and a TD in those two outings. Whatever he does through the air is going to be a bonus, but the floor in these plus match ups cannot be ignored. If you think you have a guy on the wire like Baker of Jameis that can go for 300 + and multiple touchdowns then you probably want to go that route but, if your options are guys like Dalton, Dak, maybe Eli in a bad matchup, Darnold/McKown, Allen, etc. Then I think you have to strongly consider taking the good with the bad with Lamar.


#28

I think I approach things slightly diff. I am in very little 4 pt passing TDs. I think that’s a bit of an outdated scoring system. A TD is a TD. Doesn’t make sense for a QB rushing a TD to be 2 points more than a QB passing a TD. End result in the game is the same. So most of my commentary is based on that. I also play in leagues with heavy punishment for INTs. Most of my leagues are -3 or -4 points for INT as well in superflex formats. But I think even in normal scoring formats, I would still prefer Dak to Lamar tbh although I agree its much closer if its a bad matchup.


#29

That makes a lot of sense. We had 6 originally when we started years go and then it got voted down after Peyton Manning basically won a guy the league one year by himself. I think 4 pts evens things out more. At six points per you would almost have to grab a couple of qbs in the first or second round because they have the potential to throw 40 plus.


#30

Nah not in single QB leagues. The 6 pt passing shouldn’t change your drafting strategy. The predictability factor is still in play. It just so happened that this year has been an absolute track meet for passing but in prior years, it didn’t really matter. Even this year, it still doesn’t. Plenty of good options getting you 25-30 points a week, no need to invest early draft capital for the guy who has 40 point upside.

The thing that values higher guys more is the -3 or -4 int. That’s what really separate the elite guys from the streaming options.

Like these forms of scoring way more cause it mirrors real football more. QB is the most valuable position in real life, doesn’t really make sense to have the position be worthless for fantasy.


#31

Yeah we just do the traditional -2 int.

QBs in our league don’t normally blow up any more than position players. Lots can get 20-25 points but it takes an insane day to get 40. Some position players have pulled off 50 for big games.


#32

If you’re using 4/-2, then should just move to 6/-3.


#33

This is my first year as commish so I didn’t change anything rules wise prior to the season but that is something I will take into consideration. I plan on adding FAAB and I dont think that is going to be up for discussion.


#34

He put up 20 points in my league, you’re coming off a little smug man.


#35

Read up man. I said the way I approach QBs is diff cause of scoring formats I’m used to.

And 20 points as an absolute value may sound good but when you put it in perspective and relative to what other guys put up, its subpar. Its much less than what both Baker and Winston scored which is what I said to go with in the beginning anyways. 20 points from a QB this year in the NFL is average at best given the rule changes and the shootouts that have been going on.

He also did that going up against what were 2 of the worst teams in the NFL. If you’re good with a 20 point ceiling from your QB, then stick with Lamar. Otherwise, there are just way better options. Its not smug, i’m just pointing out facts. Point out a false statement in anything I said above and I’ll stand corrected.


#36

Jackson 20 pts
Winston 22 pts
Baker 25 pts

You were right. Not a big enough margin to be pompous in my opinion.


#37

Again, read up. Most of what I am saying is based on 6 pt passing TDs. I don’t play in any 4 point ones.

Jackson: 24.22
Winston: 29.88
Baker: 33.92

Don’t know about you, but i’ll take those spreads every day. And even in normal scoring 25 vs 20 is a 25% edge, a home run in my book. And for Winston, that more like his middle ground. For Lamar, the 20 points is more like his ceiling having just played 2 of the worst defenses in the entire league.

I said Lamar sucks, especially when compared to other options out there because I don’t want a QB with a ceiling of 20 points in year when any of the top 10 guys are averaging like 25 points a game. Sticking by my opinion which is supported by numbers. When I’ve been wrong, I’ve come on here and owned up to how i messed up. But in this instance, I thought choosing lamar over baker/winston was a fools endeavor which I think holds true. If you think that’s pompous, feel free to ignore what I said. No one is forcing you to read or reply to anything I say.


#38

Mike,

You also downplayed Jackson’s running ability.

Care to walk that back a little now?

It might be all he has, and sure the match ups have been great, but it’s been historically good during his first three starts.

88 ypg,
4.9 ypc,
0.67 td per game

239 rushing ypg as a team, 93 w/Flacco
395 total ypg as a team, 366 w/Flacco
*3 game vs. 9 game sample + consider Lamar faced ATL, CIN, OAK three of the worse teams in NFL.

That’s an incredibly solid floor.

There are running backs that would love to be putting up those numbers over a 3 game stretch.

Unfortunately for football purposes he does kind of suck so far as you mentioned. He hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards and has had way too many turnovers, which is tanking his possible upside right now, but the ceiling could potentially be sky high with more experience but not likely this year. (4 lost fumbles/ints and 4 additional fumbles during those three games that he didn’t lose really worry me. )

He’s been no worse than a QB13 each of the three weeks that he has started.

If he puts it all together after a year or so then I see no reason why he can’t be in the QB1 territory all the time. This is assuming that as he gets better at throwing that he won’t run at these somewhat inflated levels. He doesn’t have to make a really significant jump to reach this. All he basically has to do is get up to averaging around 250 yards passing per game and limit the turnovers. His completion percentage this year is within 1.5% of what Flacco was doing this season. (Around 60%, which isn’t great in today’s game but okay if you are a run first team.)


#39

Walk what back? I never said he couldn’t run. I said in todays NFL, i’ll take a passer who has higher TD upside over Jackson considering majority of my leagues are 6 pt passing TD and I think that is where the future of scoring systems will land. Also, you haven’t seen what Jackson’s floor is. Taking what he’s done against 2 of the leagues worse defenses and assuming that’s his floor is a stretch at best.

There are multiple QBs who are putting up like 300+ yards and multiple TDs a game in good matchups. In most scoring formats I play in, that’s a big spread over someone who goes and throws for like <200 yards and rushes for 80-90 and consistently turns the ball over. And all of the discussion above wasn’t about ROS, it was about that particular week. Winston vs CAR and Baker vs Cinci. I stand by what I said and still think those were both superior plays to Jackson even in a cake matchup.

You’re taking his ceiling and mistaking it for a floor. Going to be a costly mistake when he actually plays any good teams in the future. And no offense, but someone beating out flacco is irrelevant to me. Flacco is garbage. That is not the bar by which I measure QB fantasy success.

He can definitely be fantasy relevant at some point just given how much he runs, but in a passing friendly league, there’s just going to be way better options out there. Give me Baker over Lamar all day long.


#40

You basically laughed at someone calling Jackson the best running qb in the NFL. I like Cam and would take him all day long in fantasy but Cam isn’t doing this. Cam is just a big power guy. Jackson has started 3 games and could easily take over the team lead in rushing with this 4th start.

I agree about the match ups. That’s why I included that in the info I posted. I want to see if he does similar against better competition or if he completely crashes and burns with the turnovers. Watson has been a QB1 every week on this several week stretch he is on without throwing for over 250 yards in any of those games. Watson I think is a better passer, but that is the potential that Jackson has and I don’t think anybody is saying Watson is playing at his ceiling right now.