Need some advice boys. So I’m picking 7th in my 12 team ppr league. And it seems about every mock I do, I’m choosing between saquon and Kamara. Any thoughts on who to choose between the two? Or should I go with Hopkins or Odell? I’m having a hard time not choosing Kamara but my gut says saquon. And I’m an eagles fan
I wanna go rb, because I can still get either Davante Adams or AJ green on the turn, but most of the top tier rbs will be gone by my 2nd pick
I’d go Kamara if I were you. He’s proven and doesn’t have Ingram to steal away touches for the first 4 weeks (and probably more when he makes the most out of that). Problem I’ve got with Barkley is their OL.
As for your next pick, I’d go with Adams (but I’m a GB fan so there may be bias).
Redraft or dynasty?
In redraft, prolly kamara. In dynasty probably saquon.
I’d go Kamara.
I would go with Saquon. Dude is a genuine beast and won’t compete for touches with anybody. Kamara is also due some TD regression, and then Ingram comes back week 5. Either way you get a top 10 RB so it’s a win-win. And I would 100% go Adams in round 2 over AJ Green.
I’d go Saqoun because I think the volume is more guaranteed. Kamara in the first makes me nervous, even though I love the talent.
Out of curiosity I looked up the amount of rushing work, aka opportunity, that those two teams provided in 2017:
NYG rush Att = 394
NO rush Att = 444
NYG % of Total Team Tgt to RB = 23%
NO % of Total Team Tgt to RB = 34%
True but that was NO going ham with Ingram and Kamara while NY was handing the ball to guys who should be playing in Canada. The Giants were missing their top 3 or 4 passing options which let defenses load the box. And Brees had his second lowest amount of pass attempts since 2005.
Remember, Cam Newton never “targeted” the running back, then Carolina drafts McCaffrey and boom he throws him the ball 100+ times. Saquon in that backfield changes everything for the Giants on offense. The D is still super suspect though.
I’m from Canada…
And what percentage did Kamara get? Saquon is getting 80% of that pie. I also expect that pie to be bigger because the offense should be at least competent.
Kamara had 56.10% of the total RB targets (34% of the total team targets).
As a comparison:
Bell = 93.80%
Gurley = 86.10%
CMC = 83.70%
D Murray = 71.20%
Riddick = 64.00%
D Johnson = 63.70%
M Gordon = 62.90%
McKinnon = 62.40%
McCoy = 62.10%
Barkley would be in elite company if he could get 80%.
BTW, this is all from the UDK. If you haven’t got it yet, what are you waiting for??!!??
I don’t make projections normally so this could/is be flawed. But as an exercise let’s say the NYG have a total of 550 “core” targets. Leaving out the 10’s and 20’s to other players.
Beckham = 170
Shepard = 120
Engram = 125
Latimer = 30
Lewis = 30
That leaves 75 left for Barkley. Seems good, but not great.
@DFWB is right. I was way off. Leaving original for people to laugh at!
450 “core” targets
Beckham = 155
Shepard = 90
Engram = 90
Latimer = 20
Lewis = 20
That leaves 80 left for Barkley. Man projections are hard!
I do think Barkley is a shoe-in for 300+ touches. They drafted him with the 2nd round. But Kamara probably gets higher quality touches, if for nothing else, the fact that their Oline is superior to the giants. ALso their offense as a whole is way better (i have them as top 3 in the league) which means more scoring opportunities for Kamara vs Barkley.
Either way, I think its super close but I always choose the guy I’ve seen do it vs the guy who people say/think they can do it.
I can virtually guarantee you neither Shephard nor Engram will come close to 120 targets. It isn’t happening. No team has 2 WR and a TE with 120 receptions. Neither guy got 120 targets last year, though Engram probably would have if he’d played all 16 amd Beckham was out for than half the year. Add in an elite pass catching RB, and I’d be shocked if either guy gets to 100.
And what I said was 80% of RB touches. And I’ll stand by it because they have no one who can challenge him. Who else is the pass catching RB? Who else is getting more than 20% of the carries?
Kamara had 221 combined carries and targets. Barkley is a lock for at least 220 carries, and 80 targets would be on the low end. Kamara is going to have to be ridiculously more efficient to be a better player.
I’m completely sold on Barkley at this point, just needed a little nudge thanks guys
Hahaha was definitely not trying to disparage Canada as a country at all. But we all know that the CFL is the minor leagues compared to the NFL.
Nyg has min oc from last year. Compare % to shurmer’s tendencies to get a more accurate assumption. As for obj and hopkins apparently nuks best year doesnt reach obj worst “year”. I think we tend to forget how dominant obj can be.
I believe that, technically, his best year is slightly better than OBJ’s worst, but that was OBJ’s rookie year, and I think it was only 13ish games.
Could be slightly off on that, but it’s pretty close. Point still stands though.
Gotta go with one of the two dual threat running backs. Both may be #2 on their respective rosters in terms of receiving stats. Tough call b/w the two, so here are two interesting articles I came accross in the past, maybe they will help you. Alvin K has already done something huge, but Barkley’s forecast looks reachable and more exotic than what Kamara already did.
I can see this being a back and forth arguement for the next few weeks. At the moment, we like Barkley ova here. He’s already doing things with Todd G in offseason.