Who do I keep? Zeke, Gurley, Hopkins, Chubb?

I’m in a 12 player 1/2 point ppr league. 1qb/2rb/2wr/1te/ 1 flex (rb/wr/te). We keep one player from the previous year’s roster but it cost you 2 rounds higher then his 2018 draft position. I had some ridiculous trades in my favor last year so I have some decent players to choice from.
These are my options and 2019 draft round if I do select to keep them.
-Nick Chubb (6)
-Matt Ryan (10)
-DeAndre Hopkins (1)
-Adam Thielen (1)
-Ezekiel Elliott (1)
-Evan Engram (5)
-Todd Gurley (1)
-Stefon Diggs (1)
-Chicago Defense
-Trey Burton (6)
-Dak Prescott (12)

I’m leaning towards ZEKE or Chubb with a round 6 pick because of the value. Hunt signing has me worried with Chubb. Gurley injury scares me. Hopkins was huge for me last year but it’s hard to pass up a volume RB1.

And yes I ended up finishing 2nd with this team. Scored 300 more points in the season then the guy that won, but he caught fire the last 2 weeks. Robbie Anderson was the nail in the coffin for my championship season.

What pick would you be drafting from?

We don’t decide draft position until a week prior to the draft and we wait to draft until most preseason games are over. That way no one gets hosed over and camp/pre-season injury.

@stormhill1987 so if you don’t know your draft position, do you have to make a decision on a keeper before draft position? If so, change that in your league lol.
Without knowing your draft position, I would keep Zeke and try to redraft one of your WRs

No, we decide draft position about a month prior to the draft and keepers shortly after that once draft positions are established. Last place gets his choice of draft spot, 11th next, and so on.

Given that, where did you finish and do you know who is keeping which players ahead of time, or is everything revealed at the same time?

It would matter to me. If I knew other players were keeping people in the first round, I would let those guys go and take Chubb (who is likely my pick anyway). You might get to grab one of them back in the first with your pick. If it looks like most people are keeping players round 2 and later, it would be hard to pass on Elliot. Not sure if this logic is making sense?

Basically, if everyone is keeping their round 1 pick as their ‘stud’, hold Chubb and recapture one of your top tier RBs with your First Round Pick. If most people are holding round 2 or later, I would consider locking down Elliot. I know there is no value there, but you do not want someone having a great keeper in the later rounds and stacking on your RBs.

All that said, it is hard to just not keep Chubb in the 4th. If those rounds are already adjusted, I might just take Chubb in the 6th and be good with it. I hope any of this help!

Depends on your draft spot. If you luck out and get the 1st pick, keep Hopkins and draft Zeke 1.1. If you don’t have the first pick, keep Zeke. Have him as the #1 RB this year, and would draft him 1.1 in all formats.

I would guess from other teams rosters (my guess on if they keep studs lower in the first round or taking draft value) that I would draft in the 8-10 range. My guess is that James connor (late round), Julio (1st round), Kamara (late round) , McCaffery (1st round) , Barkley (1st round), and Micheal Thomas (1st round) would be the most noteworthy keepers. So it would be Zeke at 1.8-1.10 or Chubb round 6. I don’t think I will have a chance to redraft a Tier 1 RB. Makes it hard not to keep Zeke when he is going to be going 1.1 in most drafts. At that spot I may be looking to draft Mixon, DJ, or Cook.

In that case, I keep Zeke and really hope somehow that Hopkins, Diggs, or Thielen fall to me. Then coming back off the turn, I target Chubb. If you can get 3 of those guys, you’re set up for success:

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I like that breakdown, and I would not be opposed to throwing Hopkins in the top keep. But I like WR. Having said that, I would be hard pressed to pass on Zeke. If you could build a stack from those five players, that would be an awesome start!